FC Bayern München vs FC Köln Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Allianz Arena Sat, 16 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
FC Bayern München FCB
5 Winner 1
FC Köln KOE
Full Time Sat, 16 May 1:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Nicolas Jackson - 83'
Harry Kane - 69', 13', 10'
Tom Bischof - 22'
Goal
|
Goal
Said El Mala - 18'

CONTEXT

FC Bayern München defeated FC Köln 5-1 at home in a match that featured a 3-1 halftime score. Bayern dominated possession with 69 percent of the ball and created an expected goals total of 2.98 against Köln's 0.65. The stronger team maintained control from the opening whistle and extended their advantage after the break to reach the final margin. No red cards were shown to either side, preserving full team structures throughout the ninety minutes. The outcome proved consistent with underlying performance indicators and reflected Bayern's clear superiority in both creation and efficiency. This result reinforced their position as the dominant side in the fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Bayern München recorded a significant 19 percent structural deviation in the match.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Outcome aligned fully with the 2.33 expected goals differential.
  • Market alignment: Final result stayed aligned with overall market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Bayern generated 2.98 expected goals while Köln managed 0.65.
  • Event impact: The 5-1 scoreline captured the sustained pressure applied by Bayern.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion to team dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Aytekin

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Leicher

1st Assistant

Germany

E. Beitinger

2nd Assistant

Germany

B. Brand

4th Official

Germany

League averages

Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.29
Yellow cards / match 3.55
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.33
FC Bayern München V. Kompany
V. Kompany
VS
FC Köln R. Wagner
R. Wagner
2.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.78
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 75 W
Heidenheim Rank: 72 D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 W
St. Pauli Rank: 70 W
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heidenheim Rank: 73 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 88 L
St. Pauli Rank: 70 D
Werder Bremen Rank: 75 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 D
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 6 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Bayern München
81.04%
Draw
10.68%
Away FC Köln
8.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
FC Bayern München
-14.12%
Draw
+7.02%
FC Köln
+7.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
100
61.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Bayern München
FC Köln
Power Score
100
61.86
League Position
1
14
Global Rank
1
127

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Bayern München — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Köln — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Bayern München FC Köln

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Bayern München

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Köln

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Bayern München ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Köln
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.39
35.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.00
32.39
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Bayern München -0.24 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Köln +0.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Bayern München
FC Köln
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Bayern München
vs
FC Köln
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Bayern München FC Köln
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Bayern München FC Köln
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
FC Bayern München
FC Köln
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Bayern München
vs
FC Köln
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Bayern München FC Köln
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Bayern München 0.28
FC Köln 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Bayern München FC Köln
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Bayern München 0.03
FC Köln 0.07
FC Bayern München
FC Köln
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCB had peak pressure around 89'.
  • FCB started the game with stronger pressure.
FCB Pressure KOE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCB reached the top pressure at 89' (82.71).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Bayern München FCB Home
29 matches
FC Köln KOE Away
Match Record
21
Wins
2
6
Draws
6
2
Losses
21
Goals
68
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
68
+47
Goal Difference
-47

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:56:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
M. Neuer
Substitution
Germany
1 (C) M. Neuer
K. Laimer
Substitution
Austria
27 K. Laimer
D. Upamecano
France
2 D. Upamecano
J. Tah
Germany
4 J. Tah
T. Bischof
Germany
20 T. Bischof
J. Kimmich
Germany
6 J. Kimmich
L. Goretzka
Substitution
Germany
8 L. Goretzka
L. Karl
Substitution
Germany
42 L. Karl
J. Musiala
Substitution
Germany
10 J. Musiala
L. Díaz Marulanda
Colombia
14 L. Díaz Marulanda
H. Kane
England
9 H. Kane
Pitch
M. Schwäbe
Germany
1 (C) M. Schwäbe
K. Hansen
Denmark
32 K. Hansen
C. Özkacar
Türkiye
39 C. Özkacar
J. Simpson-Pusey
England
22 J. Simpson-Pusey
J. Schmied
Substitution
Switzerland
2 J. Schmied
S. Sebulonsen
Norway
28 S. Sebulonsen
A. Castro-Montes
Substitution
Belgium
17 A. Castro-Montes
E. Martel
Germany
6 E. Martel
J. Kamiński
Substitution
Poland
16 J. Kamiński
S. El Mala
Substitution
Germany
13 S. El Mala
M. Bülter
Substitution
Germany
30 M. Bülter

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Allianz Arena
Capacity :
75024
Attendance :
75000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Deniz Aytekin
Christian Leicher
Eduard Beitinger
Benjamin Brand

Statistics

Possession
FCB
65%
KOE
35%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 1
11 Shots 8
67 Dangerous attacks 37
69 Possession 31
5 Corners 5
4 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Successful Headers 1
1 Injuries 2
7 Successful Dribbles 13
5 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
2 Hit Woodwork 0
16 Goal Attempts 4
17 Dribble Attempts 20
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 65
5 Goal Kicks 11
22 Throwins 8
55 Ball Safe 55

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 0
140 Attacks 53

Possession

724 Passes 327
659 Successful Passes 266
26 Successful Long Passes 17
76 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
34 Long Passes 41
91 Successful Passes Percentage 81
15 Key Passes 7

Defensive

1 Saves 2
33 Duels Won 34
18 Tackles 14
8 Interceptions 9

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 2
14 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

5 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 4

Lineup

Referee : Deniz Aytekin

Starting XI ▼

1
Manuel Neuer
Manuel Neuer (C) Goalkeeper
6.44
40
Jonas Urbig
Jonas Urbig
Goalkeeper60'
6.84
2
Dayot Upamecano
Dayot Upamecano Defender
7.14
4
Jonathan Tah
Jonathan Tah Defender
7.24
20
Tom Bischof
Tom Bischof Defender
8.21
27
Konrad Laimer
Konrad Laimer Defender
6.31
44
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic
Defender46'
6.59
6
Joshua Kimmich
Joshua Kimmich Midfielder
8.58
8
Leon Goretzka
Leon Goretzka Midfielder
7.24
11
Nicolas Jackson
Nicolas Jackson
Attacker83'
7.29
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala Midfielder
6.24
22
Raphaël Guerreiro
Raphaël Guerreiro
Defender70'
6.39
14
Luis Díaz
Luis Díaz Midfielder
7.32
42
Lennart Karl
Lennart Karl Midfielder
6.93
17
Michael Olise
Michael Olise
Midfielder61'
6.53
9
Harry Kane
Harry Kane Attacker
3
9.56
Referee : Deniz Aytekin

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Schwäbe
Marvin Schwäbe (C) Goalkeeper
5.96
2
Joël Schmied
Joël Schmied Defender
5.72
37
Linton Maina
Linton Maina
Midfielder46'
6.42
22
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Defender
5.98
28
Sebastian Sebulonsen
Sebastian Sebulonsen Defender
5.64
32
Kristoffer Lund
Kristoffer Lund Defender
6.39
39
Cenk Özkacar
Cenk Özkacar Defender
6.39
6
Eric Martel
Eric Martel Midfielder
6.39
16
Jakub Kamiński
Jakub Kamiński Midfielder
6.13
11
Florian Kainz
Florian Kainz
Midfielder90+2'
17
Alessio Castro-Montes
Alessio Castro-Montes Midfielder
6.44
18
Ísak Jóhannesson
Ísak Jóhannesson
Midfielder69'
6.44
13
Said El Mala
Said El Mala Attacker
7.17
29
Jan Thielmann
Jan Thielmann
Midfielder80'
6.29
30
Marius Bülter
Marius Bülter Attacker
6.64
38
Youssoupha Niang
Youssoupha Niang
Attacker81'
6.4

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Florian Kainz → Jakub Kamiński
10th Substitution
Event
Nicolas Jackson → Leon Goretzka
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Nicolas Jackson
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
83'
81'
Event
Youssoupha Niang → Marius Bülter
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Jan Thielmann → Said El Mala
7th Substitution
Event
Raphaël Guerreiro → Jamal Musiala
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Harry Kane
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
69'
69'
Event
Ísak Jóhannesson → Alessio Castro-Montes
5th Substitution
Event
Michael Olise → Lennart Karl 
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Jonas Urbig → Manuel Neuer 
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Josip Stanisic → Konrad Laimer
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Linton Maina → Joël Schmied
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Konrad Laimer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
37'
34'
Event
Joël Schmied
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Tom Bischof
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
22'
18'
Event
Said El Mala
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Harry Kane
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
13'
Event
Harry Kane
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
10'

Match Commentary

13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Harry Kane scores for FC Bayern München with a right-footed free kick into the left corner. The score is now FC Bayern München 2, 1. FC Köln 0.
12
Update Update
Jamal Musiala from FC Bayern München won a free kick in the attacking area.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Eric Martel of 1. FC Köln.
10
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Bayern München 1, 1. FC Köln 0. Harry Kane scores for FC Bayern München with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Joshua Kimmich with a header.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after a concession by Joshua Kimmich.
3
Update Update
Luis Díaz of FC Bayern München is caught offside.
2
Update Update
Harry Kane from FC Bayern München misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high. The assist was provided by Jamal Musiala.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Joshua Kimmich of FC Bayern München.
2
Update Update
Marius Bülter from 1. FC Köln won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Bayern München completed a comprehensive home win that underlined their control and attacking output against FC Köln. The 5-1 scoreline emerged from a strong first half lead and continued dominance after the interval. High possession and superior chance creation allowed Bayern to dictate play without interruption. With no dismissals affecting either lineup the contest remained balanced in numbers yet heavily tilted in quality. The performance metrics supported the final margin and confirmed Bayern as the clear winner on the day. This result adds to their strong record in similar fixtures and demonstrates consistent execution across key phases of the game.

FC Bayern München vs FC Köln preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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