FC Augsburg vs TSG Hoffenheim Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
TSG Hoffenheim TSGSTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match between FC Augsburg and TSG Hoffenheim is finished, ending in a 2-2 draw. The teams were already level at 2-2 by halftime and neither side could find a winner after the break. Pre-match assessments positioned TSG Hoffenheim as the stronger team with a 47.8 percent likelihood of victory, well ahead of Augsburg on 27.4 percent and the draw on 24.8 percent. The final result therefore marked a significant deviation from expectations, especially for Hoffenheim. The visitors dominated possession at 65 percent to Augsburg’s 35 percent yet could not convert that control into a win. No expected goals data was available, so alignment with underlying chance quality could not be measured, though the outcome did not match the pre-match projection. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and no red cards or other major disciplinary events affected the contest. In the end the draw represented an outcome that failed to reflect the clear pre-game favoritism shown toward Hoffenheim.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: TSG Hoffenheim showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
D. Schlager
Other match officials
P. Hüwe
1st Assistant
S. Lupp
2nd Assistant
P. Alt
4th Official


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FC Augsburg
TSG HoffenheimMovement
Changes since opening
FC Augsburg
TSG HoffenheimTeam Power Ranking
i
19.3
21.37
FC Augsburg
TSG HoffenheimForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
FC Augsburg
TSG Hoffenheim

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FC Augsburg ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
FC Augsburg ⚠ Proxy
FC Augsburg TSG Hoffenheim
FC Augsburg TSG Hoffenheim
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg TSG Hoffenheim


FC Augsburg TSG Hoffenheim


PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- FCA had peak pressure around 49'.
- TSG started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:02:24+00:00
STARTING XI
FC Augsburg
TSG Hoffenheim






















































General Information
Next Match

FC Augsburg
vs

Bayer 04 Leverkusen
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 18 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: BayArena

TSG Hoffenheim
vs

Borussia Dortmund
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 18 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: PreZero Arena
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
FC AugsburgManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




TSG HoffenheimManager ▼

Starting XI ▼















Substitutes ▼




Bench ▼





Events
CONCLUSION
FC Augsburg vs TSG Hoffenheim preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Match Commentary