Fatih Karagümrük vs Gençlerbirliği Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul) Sun, 3 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
1 Winner 0
Gençlerbirliği GSK
Full Time Sun, 3 May 5:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Tiago Çukur - 17'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Fatih Karagümrük claimed a 1-0 win against the stronger Genclerbirligi, scoring the decisive goal in the first half to lead 1-0 at halftime. Despite holding just 37% possession to the visitors' 63%, the home team maintained defensive solidity throughout. No red cards disrupted play, and second-half adjustments were absent. The result featured a minimal 4.4% structural deviation in favor of Fatih Karagümrük, with market alignment confirmed. Efficiency shifts stayed in line with expectations, though xG metrics were unavailable for both sides, limiting deeper performance insights. This upset outcome underscores Karagümrük's ability to capitalize on limited chances against a dominant opponent, preserving their lead without concessions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match ended with a minimal 4.4% structural deviation favoring Fatih Karagümrük.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome achieved full market alignment.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No notable events or adjustments impacted the match structure.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Çakır

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

?. Sultanoğlu

2nd Assistant

S. Çavuş

1st Assistant

E. Mertoğlu

4th Official

Fatih Karagümrük A. Stanojević
A. Stanojević
VS
Gençlerbirliği V. Demirel
V. Demirel
0.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 D
Eyüpspor Rank: 61 L
Konyaspor Rank: 68 L
Rizespor Rank: 69 W
Kayserispor Rank: 63 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 W
Galatasaray Rank: 88 L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 74 L
Göztepe Rank: 74 L
Konyaspor Rank: 70 L
Beşiktaş Rank: 78 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fatih Karagümrük
95.61%
Draw
4.2%
Away Gençlerbirliği
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Fatih Karagümrük
+1.45%
Draw
-1.45%
Gençlerbirliği
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.81
57.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fatih Karagümrük
Gençlerbirliği
Power Score
54.81
57.98
League Position
18
14
Global Rank
428
290

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fatih Karagümrük — Opponent-weighted form score
Gençlerbirliği — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fatih Karagümrük Gençlerbirliği

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fatih Karagümrük

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gençlerbirliği

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fatih Karagümrük ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gençlerbirliği
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fatih Karagümrük Gençlerbirliği
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fatih Karagümrük Gençlerbirliği
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fatih Karagümrük
Gençlerbirliği
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Gençlerbirliği
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fatih Karagümrük Gençlerbirliği
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fatih Karagümrük 0.00
Gençlerbirliği 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fatih Karagümrük Gençlerbirliği
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fatih Karagümrük 0.00
Gençlerbirliği 0.00
Fatih Karagümrük
Gençlerbirliği
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GSK had peak pressure around 63'.
  • GSK started the game with stronger pressure.
Fatih Karagümrük Pressure GSK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GSK reached the top pressure at 63' (99.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük Home
3 matches
Gençlerbirliği GSK Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
8
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T16:30:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. Grbić
Croatia
13 I. Grbić
R. Sousa Esgaio
Portugal
47 R. Sousa Esgaio
D. Biraschi
Italy
4 D. Biraschi
I. Lichnovsky Osorio
Chile
3 I. Lichnovsky Osorio
F. Mladenović
Serbia
25 F. Mladenović
A. Traore
Substitution
Ivory Coast
88 A. Traore
B. Özcan
Substitution
Türkiye
8 B. Özcan
C. Kranevitter
Argentina
5 C. Kranevitter
B. Kalayci
Substitution
Germany
72 B. Kalayci
W. Shavy
Substitution
Gabon
80 W. Shavy
T. Cukur
Substitution
Türkiye
21 T. Cukur
Pitch
M. Silva Velho
Portugal
24 M. Silva Velho
A. Dursun
Substitution
Türkiye
77 A. Dursun
Ž. Žužek
Slovenia
4 Ž. Žužek
D. Goutas
Greece
6 D. Goutas
F. Üzüm
Türkiye
88 F. Üzüm
S. Onur
Substitution
Türkiye
8 S. Onur
O. Diabate
Guinea
42 O. Diabate
M. Mimaroğlu
Substitution
Türkiye
10 M. Mimaroğlu
F. Tongya Heubang
Substitution
Italy
70 F. Tongya Heubang
A. Malouda Traoré
Substitution
Mali
20 A. Malouda Traoré
S. Koita
Mali
22 S. Koita

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul)
Capacity :
76092
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Özcan Sultanoğlu
Oğuzhan Çakır
Samet Çavuş
E. Mertoğlu

Statistics

Possession
Fatih Karagümrük
39%
GSK
61%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 4
20 Dangerous attacks 52
37 Possession 63
1 Corners 6
9 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Dribble Attempts 10
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
18 Throwins 22
13 Goal Kicks 7
17 Successful Headers 14
1 Assists 0
2 Successful Dribbles 4
0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5
74 Ball Safe 81
4 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

69 Attacks 114
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

73 Successful Passes Percentage 86
76 Long Passes 62
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
337 Passes 562
27 Successful Long Passes 31
246 Successful Passes 482
6 Key Passes 9

Defensive

14 Tackles 13
42 Duels Won 44
9 Interceptions 4
3 Saves 1

Build-up

3 Total Crosses 26
0 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

13 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Oğuzhan Çakır

Starting XI ▼

13
Ivo Grbic
Ivo Grbic Goalkeeper
7.02
3
Igor Lichnovsky
Igor Lichnovsky Defender
6.86
4
Davide Biraschi
Davide Biraschi Defender
6.51
25
Filip Mladenovic
Filip Mladenovic Defender
6.77
47
Ricardo Esgaio
Ricardo Esgaio Defender
6.5
5
Matías Kranevitter
Matías Kranevitter Midfielder
6.55
8
Berkay Özcan
Berkay Özcan Midfielder
6.68
6
Bartuğ Elmaz
Bartuğ Elmaz
Midfielder59'
6.82
72
Barış Kalaycı
Barış Kalaycı Midfielder
6.68
23
Sam Larsson
Sam Larsson
Midfielder46'
6.92
88
Ahmed Traore
Ahmed Traore Midfielder
6.56
70
Serginho
Serginho
Midfielder46'
6.86
21
Tiago Çukur
Tiago Çukur Attacker
6.68
94
Anıl Yiğit Çınar
Anıl Yiğit Çınar
Defender84'
6.75
80
Shavy Babicka
Shavy Babicka Attacker
6.68
33
Çağtay Kurukalıp
Çağtay Kurukalıp
Defender90+3'
6.79
Referee : Oğuzhan Çakır

Starting XI ▼

24
Ricardo Velho
Ricardo Velho Goalkeeper
7.04
4
Zan Zuzek
Zan Zuzek Defender
6.82
6
Dimitrios Goutas
Dimitrios Goutas Defender
6.89
77
Abdurrahim Dursun
Abdurrahim Dursun Defender
6.58
35
Oğulcan Ülgün
Oğulcan Ülgün
Midfielder82'
6.84
88
Fıratcan Üzüm
Fıratcan Üzüm Defender
6.51
8
Samed Onur
Samed Onur Midfielder
6.69
99
Cihan Çanak
Cihan Çanak
Attacker69'
6.65
10
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Metehan Mimaroğlu Midfielder
6.81
11
Göktan Gürpüz
Göktan Gürpüz
Midfielder78'
6.71
20
Adama Traoré
Adama Traoré Midfielder
6.56
29
M'Baye Niang
M'Baye Niang
Attacker78'
6.78
42
Ousmane Diabate
Ousmane Diabate Midfielder
6.64
70
Franco Tongya
Franco Tongya Midfielder
6.73
13
Pedro Pereira
Pedro Pereira
Defender82'
6.62
22
Sékou Koïta
Sékou Koïta Attacker
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Çağtay Kurukalıp → Shavy Babicka
10th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Anıl Yiğit Çınar → Tiago Çukur
9th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Pedro Pereira → Franco Tongya
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Oğulcan Ülgün → Abdurrahim Dursun
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Göktan Gürpüz → Metehan Mimaroğlu
5th Substitution
78'
Event
M'Baye Niang → Adama Traoré
6th Substitution
Event
Tiago Çukur
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
70'
69'
Event
Cihan Çanak → Samed Onur
4th Substitution
Event
Bartuğ Elmaz → Berkay Özcan
3rd Substitution
59'
49'
Event
Abdurrahim Dursun
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Serginho → Ahmed Traore
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Sam Larsson → Barış Kalaycı
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+6'
Event
Dimitrios Goutas
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45+5'
Event
Metehan Mimaroğlu
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Igor Lichnovsky
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+4'
45+3'
Event
Adama Traoré
Penalty awarded
Event
Tiago Çukur
Header / 1st Goal
17'

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Sam Larsson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Update Update
Anil Yigit Cinar is on, and Tiago Cukur is off.
82
Attempt Attempt
Serginho Antonio Da Luiz Junior takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Update Update
Pedro Pereira is on, and Franco Tongya is off.
82
Update Update
Ogulcan Ulgun is on, and Abdurrahim Dursun is off.
77
Update Update
MBaye Niang comes on for Adama Traore.
77
Substitution Substitution
Goktan Gurpuz is substituted off for Metehan Mimaroglu.
76
Attempt Attempt
Shavy Babicka takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Dimitrios Goutas attempts a header but misses the shot.
70
Attempt Attempt
Sam Larsson's right-footed shot is blocked.
69
Update Update
Cihan Canak is on, and Samed Onur is off.
66
Attempt Attempt
Dimitrios Goutas takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Dimitrios Goutas attempts a header but misses the shot.
58
Update Update
Bartug Elmaz comes on for Berkay Ozcan.
58
Attempt Attempt
Sekou Koita attempted a header but missed the shot.
55
Attempt Attempt
Franco Tongya's left-footed shot is saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Sekou Koita attempted a header but missed the shot.
46
Update Update
Serginho Antonio Da Luiz Junior is on, and Traore Ahmed is off.
46
Update Update
Serginho Antonio Da Luiz Junior is on, and Traore Ahmed is off.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Igor Lichnovsky Osorio receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Metehan Mimaroglu's attempt is unsuccessful.
45
Attempt Attempt
Metehan Mimaroglu takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Franco Tongya takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Firatcan Uzum takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Firatcan Uzum takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Firatcan Uzum takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Update Update
Goal! Tiago Cukur scores to make it 1-0.
17
Update Update
Tiago Cukur scores with a header.
14
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Diabaté takes a left-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Berkay Ozcan takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Samed Onur takes a left-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Oguzhan Cakir.

CONCLUSION

Fatih Karagümrük's 1-0 triumph over possession-heavy Genclerbirligi exemplifies defensive resilience and clinical finishing. The early goal set the tone, with the home side absorbing pressure effectively despite lower ball control. Minimal structural deviation and confirmed market alignment indicate a plausible, if surprising, result against the stronger visitor. Lacking xG data hampers efficiency evaluation, but the clean sheet highlights superior chance prevention. This performance could signal growing home strength, while exposing visitor wastefulness in dominance.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Gençlerbirliği preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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