Fatih Karagümrük vs Eyüpspor Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey

Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul) Sat, 18 Apr - 11:30 AM

Super Lig

Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük

Eyüpspor Eyüpspor

Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 11:30 AM

Round 30 Regular Season

Serginho - 16'

Mateusz Legowski - 44'

Matías Kranevitter - 39' (Own Goal)

Anıl Yaşar 78'

CONTEXT

In a surprising Turkish Super Lig clash, pre-match favorites Fatih Karagümrük suffered a 1-2 defeat at home to Eyüpspor, despite controlling 62% possession and entering as the stronger team. Eyüpspor struck twice before halftime to lead 2-1, showcasing clinical finishing against the run of play. The second half saw Eyüpspor reduced to 10 men after a red card, yet they resiliently defended their lead while Fatih Karagümrük pushed forward without equalizing. This outcome represented a significant structural deviation, with Eyüpspor defying expectations where they held just a minor pre-match share. Possession dominance failed to translate into goals for the hosts, highlighting Eyüpspor's efficiency in key moments. The red card introduced distortion, but the visitors' organization held firm, securing a valuable away win that underscores football's unpredictability.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Eyüpspor's victory marked a 77.1% significant deviation from pre-match structural expectations favoring Fatih Karagümrük.
Efficiency shift: Both teams operated in line with efficiency norms given possession and scoring patterns.
xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing direct alignment assessment with actual goals.
Market alignment: Result diverged from pre-match market positioning, where home win was prominent.
xG expectations: Without xG figures, expectations relative to chance quality remain undetermined.
Event impact: Eyüpspor's red card altered dynamics but did not prevent their win.
Red card distortion: Second-half red card to Eyüpspor created defensive pressure they withstood successfully.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

C. Aydın

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Barcın

1st Assistant

K. İlitangil

2nd Assistant

M. Metoğlu

4th Official

A. Stanojević

A. Gerin

0.81

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.81

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 1 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Fatih Karagümrük

49.44%

Draw

27.63%

Eyüpspor

22.92%

Movement

Changes since opening

Fatih Karagümrük

+49.25%

Draw

+21.98%

Eyüpspor

-71.24%

Team Power Ranking

20.67

13.11

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Fatih Karagümrük

Eyüpspor

Power Score

20.67

13.11

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Fatih Karagümrük — Opponent-weighted form score

Eyüpspor — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fatih Karagümrük Eyüpspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Fatih Karagümrük

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Eyüpspor

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fatih Karagümrük ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Eyüpspor

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

24.19

19.34

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

19.34

24.19

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Fatih Karagümrük +0.49 Efficiency Index

Eyüpspor -0.49 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Fatih Karagümrük

Eyüpspor

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fatih Karagümrük ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Eyüpspor

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Fatih Karagümrük Eyüpspor

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Fatih Karagümrük Eyüpspor

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Fatih Karagümrük

Eyüpspor

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Fatih Karagümrük

Eyüpspor

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Fatih Karagümrük Eyüpspor

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Fatih Karagümrük Eyüpspor

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Fatih Karagümrük

Eyüpspor

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Fatih Karagümrük had peak pressure around 82'.
Eyüpspor started the game with stronger pressure.

Fatih Karagümrük Pressure Eyüpspor Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Fatih Karagümrük reached the top pressure at 82' (78.54).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük Home

1 matches

Eyüpspor Eyüpspor Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:02:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

13 I. Grbić

47 R. Sousa Esgaio

4 D. Biraschi

3 I. Lichnovsky Osorio

25 F. Mladenović

10 D. Verde

5 C. Kranevitter

6 B. Elmaz

80 W. Shavy

23 S. Larsson

70 S. Da Luiz Junior

24 J. Yılmaz

77 C. Meraş

16 S. Yaşar

4 L. Claro dos Santos

2 L. Calegari

15 C. Raux Yao

55 B. Gezek

28 T. İlter

26 M. Altunbaş

19 U. Bozok

20 M. Łęgowski

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 18, 2026, 11:30 AM

Competition :

2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 30 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul)

Capacity :

76092

Pitch Surface :

N/A

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Gökhan Barcın

Kerem İlitangil

Muhammet Ali Metoğlu

C. Aydın

Statistics

Possession

Fatih Karagümrük

59%

Eyüpspor

41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 0

12 Shots 6

60 Dangerous attacks 27

62 Possession 38

6 Corners 5

12 Free kicks 14

0 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 11

36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38

23 Throwins 9

13 Successful Headers 14

5 Successful Dribbles 6

14 Dribble Attempts 16

1 Assists 1

3 Substitutions 5

75 Ball Safe 84

2 Injuries 1

7 Goal Attempts 6

0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

141 Attacks 62

Possession

65 Long Passes 60

35 Successful Long Passes 19

497 Passes 320

81 Successful Passes Percentage 76

404 Successful Passes 243

54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

9 Key Passes 5

Defensive

20 Tackles 13

3 Saves 2

50 Duels Won 47

9 Interceptions 16

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 3

33 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

14 Fouls 12

3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : C. Aydın

Manager ▼

A. Stanojević Coach

Starting XI ▼

Ivo Grbic Goalkeeper

7.02

Igor Lichnovsky Defender

6.9

Davide Biraschi Defender

6.48

Filip Mladenovic Defender

6.83

Ricardo Esgaio Defender

6.49

Matías Kranevitter Midfielder

6.55

Bartuğ Elmaz Midfielder

6.82

Berkay Özcan

Midfielder61'

6.68

Daniele Verde Midfielder

7.11

Barış Kalaycı

Attacker61'

6.68

Shavy Babicka Midfielder

6.66

Tiago Çukur

Attacker33'

6.67

Sam Larsson Attacker

6.93

Serginho Attacker

6.84

Substitutes ▼

Tiago Çukur

Attacker33'

6.67

Berkay Özcan

Midfielder61'

6.68

Barış Kalaycı

Attacker61'

6.68

Bench ▼

Furkan Bekleviç Goalkeeper

Fatih Kurucuk Defender

6.49

Muhammed Kadıoğlu Defender

6.38

Çağtay Kurukalıp Defender

6.78

Anıl Yiğit Çınar Defender

6.75

Burhan Ersoy Midfielder

Ahmed Traore Attacker

6.55

Referee : C. Aydın