Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul) Sat, 16 May - 2:00 PM
Super Lig
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
2 Winner 1
Alanyaspor ANY
Full Time Sat, 16 May 2:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Sam Larsson - 72' (P), 47'
Goal
|
Goal
Meschack Elia - 32'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 Alanyaspor. The result saw Fatih Karagümrük take the points. Fatih Karagümrük showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. xG finished Fatih Karagümrük 1.7 – 0.8 Alanyaspor. Possession was 44%–56%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor. Fatih Karagümrük showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Aksu

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Çelebi

2nd Assistant

Türkiye

S. Altay

1st Assistant

Türkiye

O. Gökçen

4th Official

Türkiye

League averages

Super Lig Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 26.26
Yellow cards / match 4.74
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.39
Fatih Karagümrük A. Stanojević
A. Stanojević
VS
Alanyaspor N. Pereira Costa
N. Pereira Costa
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 W
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 D
Eyüpspor Rank: 66 L
Konyaspor Rank: 70 L
Rizespor Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kayserispor Rank: 63 W
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 D
Samsunspor Rank: 71 L
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 L
Trabzonspor Rank: 78 D
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 64 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fatih Karagümrük
30.59%
Draw
27.69%
Away Alanyaspor
41.72%

Movement

Changes since opening
Fatih Karagümrük
-61.75%
Draw
+20.3%
Alanyaspor
+41.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.4
68.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fatih Karagümrük
Alanyaspor
Power Score
56.4
68.03
League Position
17
10
Global Rank
354
250

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fatih Karagümrük — Opponent-weighted form score
Alanyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fatih Karagümrük Alanyaspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fatih Karagümrük

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Alanyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fatih Karagümrük ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Alanyaspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.91
23.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.93
20.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fatih Karagümrük -0.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Alanyaspor +0.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fatih Karagümrük
Alanyaspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Alanyaspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fatih Karagümrük Alanyaspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fatih Karagümrük Alanyaspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Fatih Karagümrük
Alanyaspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Alanyaspor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fatih Karagümrük Alanyaspor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fatih Karagümrük 0.33
Alanyaspor 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fatih Karagümrük Alanyaspor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fatih Karagümrük 0.02
Alanyaspor 0.08
Fatih Karagümrük
Alanyaspor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ANY had peak pressure around 15'.
  • ANY started the game with stronger pressure.
Fatih Karagümrük Pressure ANY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ANY reached the top pressure at 15' (78.18).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük Home
9 matches
Alanyaspor ANY Away
Match Record
1
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
1
Goals
9
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
9
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:56:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
F. Bekleviç
Türkiye
99 F. Bekleviç
R. Sousa Esgaio
Portugal
47 R. Sousa Esgaio
D. Biraschi
Italy
4 (C) D. Biraschi
A. Çınar
Türkiye
94 A. Çınar
Ç. Kurukalıp
Türkiye
33 Ç. Kurukalıp
C. Kranevitter
Argentina
5 C. Kranevitter
B. Elmaz
Türkiye
6 B. Elmaz
A. Traore
Substitution
Ivory Coast
88 A. Traore
B. Özcan
Türkiye
8 B. Özcan
B. Kalayci
Substitution
Germany
72 B. Kalayci
S. Larsson
Substitution
Sweden
23 S. Larsson
Pitch
P. de Mileo Vidotti
Brazil
48 P. de Mileo Vidotti
B. Willemen Da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
30 B. Willemen Da Silva
F. Aliti
Kosovo
5 (C) F. Aliti
N. Reis Lima
Portugal
3 N. Reis Lima
E. Keskin
Substitution
Türkiye
8 E. Keskin
A. Simão Muanza
Substitution
Angola
58 A. Simão Muanza
G. Makouta
Substitution
France
42 G. Makouta
F. Hadërgjonaj
Kosovo
94 F. Hadërgjonaj
R. Pereira Duarte
Brazil
11 R. Pereira Duarte
U. Hwang
Substitution
South Korea
16 U. Hwang
M. Elia
DR Congo
12 M. Elia

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul)
Capacity :
76092
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oğuzhan Aksu
Mücahid Adem Çelebi
Selahattin Altay
Oğuzhan Gökçen

Statistics

Possession
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
ANY
55%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 4
24 Dangerous attacks 48
44 Possession 56
0 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

7 Successful Dribbles 9
1 Penalties 0
1 Assists 1
14 Throwins 24
4 Goal Kicks 2
5 Goal Attempts 8
7 Successful Headers 6
8 Dribble Attempts 13
66 Ball Safe 72
88 Successful Dribbles Percentage 69
2 Injuries 1
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

88 Attacks 79

Possession

17 Successful Long Passes 20
357 Successful Passes 481
84 Successful Passes Percentage 88
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
44 Long Passes 38
424 Passes 544
5 Key Passes 8

Defensive

40 Duels Won 35
6 Interceptions 14
14 Tackles 7
3 Saves 2

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 12
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Oğuzhan Aksu

Starting XI ▼

99
Furkan Bekleviç
Furkan Bekleviç Goalkeeper
6.61
4
Davide Biraschi
Davide Biraschi (C) Defender
6.64
33
Çağtay Kurukalıp
Çağtay Kurukalıp Defender
6.55
47
Ricardo Esgaio
Ricardo Esgaio Defender
6.73
94
Anıl Yiğit Çınar
Anıl Yiğit Çınar Defender
6.65
5
Matías Kranevitter
Matías Kranevitter Midfielder
6.69
6
Bartuğ Elmaz
Bartuğ Elmaz Midfielder
7.21
8
Berkay Özcan
Berkay Özcan Midfielder
6.79
72
Barış Kalaycı
Barış Kalaycı Midfielder
7.26
20
Tarık Buğra Kalpaklı
Tarık Buğra Kalpaklı
Attacker90+1'
88
Ahmed Traore
Ahmed Traore Midfielder
6.17
80
Shavy Babicka
Shavy Babicka
Attacker64'
7.37
23
Sam Larsson
Sam Larsson Attacker
2
8.5
22
Fatih Kurucuk
Fatih Kurucuk
Defender90'
Referee : Oğuzhan Aksu

Starting XI ▼

48
Paulo Victor
Paulo Victor Goalkeeper
6.49
3
Nuno Lima
Nuno Lima Defender
6.69
5
Fidan Aliti
Fidan Aliti (C) Defender
6.49
30
Bruno Viana
Bruno Viana Defender
6.54
10
Güven Yalçın
Güven Yalçın
Attacker82'
6.46
8
Enes Keskin
Enes Keskin Midfielder
6.66
27
İbrahim Kaya
İbrahim Kaya
Attacker72'
6.52
42
Gaius Makouta
Gaius Makouta Midfielder
6.55
6
İzzet Çelik
İzzet Çelik
Midfielder72'
6.54
58
Maestro
Maestro Midfielder
6.98
7
Efecan Karaca
Efecan Karaca
Midfielder81'
6.72
94
Florent Hadergjonaj
Florent Hadergjonaj Midfielder
7.08
11
Ruan
Ruan Attacker
6.75
12
Meschack Elia
Meschack Elia Attacker
7.56
16
Ui-jo Hwang
Ui-jo Hwang Attacker
6.77
14
Ianis Hagi
Ianis Hagi
Midfielder72'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Çağtay Kurukalıp
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Tarık Buğra Kalpaklı → Barış Kalaycı
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Fatih Kurucuk → Sam Larsson
7th Substitution
90'
82'
Event
Güven Yalçın → Bruno Viana
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Efecan Karaca → Maestro
5th Substitution
Event
Sam Larsson
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
72'
72'
Event
İbrahim Kaya → Enes Keskin
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Ianis Hagi → Ui-jo Hwang
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
İzzet Çelik → Gaius Makouta
2nd Substitution
Event
Shavy Babicka
Penalty awarded
70'
Event
Shavy Babicka → Ahmed Traore
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Sam Larsson
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Meschack Elia
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cagtay Kurukalip receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Fatih Kurucuk comes on for Sam Larsson.
90
Update Update
Tarik Kalpakli is on, and Baris Kalayci is off.
89
Attempt Attempt
Fidan Aliti takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Guven Yalcin takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Sam Larsson's right-footed shot is blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Efecan Karaca takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Update Update
Guven Yalcin comes on for Bruno Viana Willemen Da Silva.
81
Update Update
Efecan Karaca is on, and Maestro is off.
79
Attempt Attempt
Berkay Ozcan takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Kaya takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Sam Larsson with his right foot results in a goal.
72
Update Update
Ibrahim Kaya comes on for Enes Keskin.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Sam Larsson scores, making it 2-1.
64
Update Update
Shavy Babicka comes on for Traore Ahmed.
63
Attempt Attempt
Ricardo Esgaio Souza takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Enes Keskin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Sam Larsson takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
Attempt Attempt
Baris Kalayci's left-footed shot is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Fidan Aliti's right-footed shot is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Elia Meschack takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
24
Attempt Attempt
Ahmed Traore takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Hwang Ui Jo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Bartug Elmaz takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
14
Attempt Attempt
Ruan Pereira Duarte takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Ruan Pereira Duarte takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
A shot from Maestro with his right foot is saved.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor. Structural assessment: Fatih Karagümrük exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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