Famalicão vs Benfica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho Sat, 2 May - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Famalicão FCF
2 – 2
Benfica SLB
Full Time Sat, 2 May 5:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Umar Abubakar - 78'
Mathias de Amorim - 67'
Goal
|
Goal
|
Red Card Nicolás Otamendi 55'

CONTEXT

Famalicão secured a 2-2 draw against Benfica in the Primeira Liga, overcoming a 0-2 halftime deficit. Benfica, the stronger team, dominated early proceedings to lead at the break with goals reflecting their initial control. Famalicão held 56% possession throughout, gradually asserting pressure in the second half after Benfica received a red card, reducing them to ten men. This numerical advantage allowed Famalicão to equalize through persistent attacking efforts, while Benfica's defense managed to prevent a victory for the home side. The match featured a moderate structural deviation of 9.6% favoring Benfica, indicating the result diverged somewhat from expected patterns. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with overall play, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The red card introduced significant second-half adjustments, altering the game's flow.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match resulted in a moderate 9.6% structural deviation favoring Benfica.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without data.
  • Event impact: Benfica's red card shifted second-half momentum toward Famalicão.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Benfica caused distortion in second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Mota Correia

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Nogueira Dias

1st Assistant

F. Oliveira da Silva

2nd Assistant

D. Araújo

4th Official

Famalicão H. Carvalho Oliveira
H. Carvalho Oliveira
VS
Benfica José Mourinho
José Mourinho
1.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.43
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estoril Rank: 67 W
Sporting Braga Rank: 82 D
Moreirense Rank: 66 D
Porto Rank: 87 D
Nacional Rank: 65 W
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Moreirense Rank: 67 W
Sporting CP Rank: 89 W
Nacional Rank: 63 W
Casa Pia Rank: 62 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 72 W
Arouca Rank: 65 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Famalicão
5.53%
Draw
90.38%
Away Benfica
4.09%

Movement

Changes since opening
Famalicão
-1.7%
Draw
+2.55%
Benfica
-0.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.78
87.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Famalicão
Benfica
Power Score
73.78
87.41
League Position
5
2
Global Rank
128
21

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Famalicão — Opponent-weighted form score
Benfica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Famalicão Benfica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Famalicão

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Benfica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Famalicão ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Benfica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.07
22.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.05
31.07
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Famalicão +0.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Benfica -0.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Famalicão
Benfica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Famalicão ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Benfica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Famalicão Benfica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Famalicão Benfica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Famalicão
Benfica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Famalicão
vs
Benfica
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Famalicão Benfica
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Famalicão 0.31
Benfica 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Famalicão Benfica
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Famalicão 0.06
Benfica 0.04
Famalicão
Benfica
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SLB had peak pressure around 23'.
  • SLB started the game with stronger pressure.
FCF Pressure SLB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SLB reached the top pressure at 23' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Famalicão FCF Home
13 matches
Benfica SLB Away
Match Record
2
Wins
9
2
Draws
2
9
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
7
-20
Goal Difference
+20

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Carević
Montenegro
25 L. Carević
R. Pinheiro Ferreira
Portugal
17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
L. Realpe Montaño
Ecuador
3 L. Realpe Montaño
J. de Haas
Netherlands
16 J. de Haas
L. Soares Alves
Portugal
5 L. Soares Alves
T. van de Looi
Netherlands
6 T. van de Looi
M. De Amorim
Substitution
France
14 M. De Amorim
G. Bastião Dias
Substitution
Portugal
23 G. Bastião Dias
G. Alves Freitas Azevedo Sá
Portugal
20 G. Alves Freitas Azevedo Sá
M. Lopes Moura
Brazil
7 M. Lopes Moura
S. Elisor
Substitution
France
12 S. Elisor
Pitch
A. Trubin
Ukraine
1 A. Trubin
S. Dahl
Sweden
26 S. Dahl
N. Otamendi
Argentina
30 N. Otamendi
A. Tavares Silva
Portugal
4 A. Tavares Silva
A. Dedić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
17 A. Dedić
F. Aursnes
Norway
8 F. Aursnes
R. Rios
Colombia
20 R. Rios
A. Schjelderup
Substitution
Norway
21 A. Schjelderup
L. Barreiro Martins
Luxembourg
18 L. Barreiro Martins
G. Prestianni Gross
Substitution
Argentina
25 G. Prestianni Gross
F. Ivanović
Substitution
Croatia
9 F. Ivanović

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Capacity :
5307
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gustavo Mota Correia
André Filipe Nogueira Dias
Fabio Diogo Oliveira da Silva
Diogo Araújo

Statistics

Possession
FCF
54%
SLB
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 1
48 Dangerous attacks 34
56 Possession 44
6 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Substitutions 3
0 Injuries 3
12 Goal Attempts 7
11 Dribble Attempts 17
19 Throwins 20
12 Successful Headers 13
99 Ball Safe 94
4 Successful Dribbles 8
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
0 Penalties 1
7 Goal Kicks 9
2 Assists 1

Attacking

72 Attacks 93
2 Counter Attacks 3
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

35 Long Passes 43
14 Key Passes 6
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
18 Successful Long Passes 18
344 Successful Passes 254
87 Successful Passes Percentage 80
395 Passes 319

Defensive

48 Duels Won 56
18 Tackles 14
7 Interceptions 10
0 Saves 3

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 5
10 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

20 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Gustavo Mota Correia

Starting XI ▼

25
Lazar Carević
Lazar Carević Goalkeeper
7.04
3
Léo Realpe
Léo Realpe Defender
6.88
5
Rafa Soares
Rafa Soares Defender
6.76
16
Justin de Haas
Justin de Haas Defender
7.05
17
Rodrigo Pinheiro
Rodrigo Pinheiro Defender
6.99
6
Tom van de Looi
Tom van de Looi Midfielder
6.91
7
Sorriso
Sorriso Midfielder
7.04
14
Mathias de Amorim
Mathias de Amorim Midfielder
6.91
80
Pedro Santos
Pedro Santos
Attacker90+3'
6.76
20
Gustavo Sá
Gustavo Sá Midfielder
7
23
Gil Dias
Gil Dias Midfielder
7.05
18
Roméo Beney
Roméo Beney
Attacker72'
6.55
12
Simon Elisor
Simon Elisor Attacker
6.73
9
Umar Abubakar
Umar Abubakar
Attacker72'
6.56
Referee : Gustavo Mota Correia

Starting XI ▼

1
Anatoliy Trubin
Anatoliy Trubin Goalkeeper
6.83
4
António Silva
António Silva Defender
7.07
17
Amar Dedić
Amar Dedić Defender
6.71
26
Samuel Dahl
Samuel Dahl Defender
6.96
30
Nicolás Otamendi
Nicolás Otamendi Defender
7.3
8
Fredrik Aursnes
Fredrik Aursnes Midfielder
7.26
18
Leandro Barreiro
Leandro Barreiro Midfielder
6.93
20
Richard Ríos
Richard Ríos Midfielder
7.09
21
Andreas Schjelderup
Andreas Schjelderup Midfielder
6.98
6
Alexander Bah
Alexander Bah
Defender72'
6.81
25
Gianluca Prestianni
Gianluca Prestianni Midfielder
6.97
5
Enzo Barrenechea
Enzo Barrenechea
Midfielder57'
7.09
9
Franjo Ivanović
Franjo Ivanović Attacker
6.89
27
Rafa Silva
Rafa Silva
Midfielder85'
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
90+12'
Event
Richard Ríos
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+9'
Event
Anatoliy Trubin
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Pedro Santos → Mathias de Amorim
6th Substitution
90+3'
85'
Event
Rafa Silva → Franjo Ivanović
5th Substitution
Event
Rodrigo Pinheiro
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Umar Abubakar
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
78'
Event
Gustavo Sá
Off the ball foul / 1st Yellowcard
74'
Event
Roméo Beney → Gil Dias
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Umar Abubakar → Simon Elisor
2nd Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Alexander Bah → Andreas Schjelderup
3rd Substitution
Event
Mathias de Amorim
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
67'
57'
Event
Enzo Barrenechea → Gianluca Prestianni
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Nicolás Otamendi
Foul / 1st Redcard
1ST-HALF
19'
Event
Richard Ríos
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
12'
Event
Andreas Schjelderup
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
11'
Event
Franjo Ivanović
Penalty awarded

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura from Sorriso takes a shot with his head but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Anatolii Trubin receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Pedro Santos comes on for Mathias De Amorim.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mathias De Amorim takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Richard Rios takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Romeo Beney with his left foot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Pinheiro Ferreira takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Richard Rios receives a yellow card.
87
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Ferreira Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Mathias De Amorim takes a left-footed shot but misses.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Rafael Ferreira Silva comes on for Franjo Ivanovic.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rodrigo Pinheiro Ferreira receives a yellow card.
78
Attempt Attempt
Tom van de Looi takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
78
Attempt Attempt
Umar Abubakar takes a right-footed shot and scores.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Gustavo Filipe Alves Freitas Azevedo Sa.
72
Update Update
Alexander Bahr comes on for Andreas Schjelderup.
72
Update Update
Umar Abubakar replaces Simon Elisor.
72
Update Update
Romeo Beney replaces Gil Dias.
70
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Javier Realpe Montano's header is saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Mathias De Amorim scores with a right-footed shot.
61
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Pinheiro Ferreira takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Filipe Alves Freitas Azevedo Sa attempts a header but misses the shot.
57
Update Update
Enzo Barrenechea is on, and Gianluca Prestianni is off.
55
Red Card Red Card Important
Nicolas Hernan Gonzalo Otamendi receives a red card.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolas Hernan Gonzalo Otamendi receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Franjo Ivanovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Gil Dias takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Franjo Ivanovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Filipe Alves Freitas Azevedo Sa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura from Sorriso takes a shot with his head but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Gil Dias takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Update Update
Richard Rios attempted a header, but it went wide.
21
Attempt Attempt
Franjo Ivanovic's right-footed shot is saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Richard Rios takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
12
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Andreas Schjelderup scores, making it 1-0.
10
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Schjelderup takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
9
Update Update
The goal is disallowed after a VAR decision for offside.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw underscores Famalicão's ability to capitalize on Benfica's red card after trailing 0-2 at halftime. With 56% possession, Famalicão's second-half resurgence neutralized Benfica's early lead, despite the visitors' status as the stronger team. The moderate 9.6% deviation for Benfica highlights how the sending-off disrupted structural balance, leading to shared points. Efficiency held steady, and market alignment confirmed the result's consistency with expectations. This outcome reflects resilient defending from Benfica under pressure and Famalicão's effective adjustments, setting a precedent for handling numerical disadvantages in competitive fixtures.

Famalicão vs Benfica preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.