Famalicão vs Alverca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal de Famalicão Sat, 16 May - 7:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Famalicão FCF
1 Winner 0
Alverca ALV
Full Time Sat, 16 May 7:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Umar Abubakar - 83'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Famalicão hosted Alverca in a match that ended 1-0 to the home side after a goalless first half. Both teams recorded equal possession at fifty percent each throughout the ninety minutes. Famalicão entered as the stronger side and delivered the only goal in the second half to claim victory. No red cards were shown to players from either team during the contest. The result came despite a significant deviation level recorded for the home side ahead of kickoff. Famalicão demonstrated the capacity to break down a compact Alverca defense after the interval. The encounter remained competitive with limited clear scoring opportunities created by either outfit. This outcome leaves Famalicão with a narrow but important win in their campaign.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Famalicão recorded a significant 38.9 percent deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with the stronger team's overall performance.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded to assess alignment with the final score.
  • Market alignment: The 1-0 result stayed aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals figures stayed unavailable for both Famalicão and Alverca.
  • Event impact: The second-half goal proved decisive in delivering the 1-0 home win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued so play continued without disciplinary distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Ruivo Pereira

Portugal 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Teixeira de Jesus

1st Assistant

Portugal

T. Pereira Costa

2nd Assistant

Portugal

F. Oliveira Melo

4th Official

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 25.36
Yellow cards / match 4.57
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.38
Famalicão H. Carvalho Oliveira
H. Carvalho Oliveira
VS
Alverca C. Dias de Castro
C. Dias de Castro
1.55
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estrela Amadora Rank: 58 D
Benfica Rank: 87 D
Estoril Rank: 67 W
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 D
Moreirense Rank: 67 D
Porto Rank: 86 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estoril Rank: 68 D
Porto Rank: 87 L
Arouca Rank: 65 W
Nacional Rank: 64 L
Casa Pia Rank: 63 W
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Famalicão
61.05%
Draw
22.78%
Away Alverca
16.17%

Movement

Changes since opening
Famalicão
-31.29%
Draw
+15.39%
Alverca
+15.9%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.02
57.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Famalicão
Alverca
Power Score
74.02
57.4
League Position
5
10
Global Rank
130
291

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Famalicão — Opponent-weighted form score
Alverca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Famalicão Alverca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Famalicão

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Alverca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Famalicão ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Alverca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Famalicão Alverca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Famalicão Alverca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Famalicão
Alverca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Famalicão
vs
Alverca
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Famalicão Alverca
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Famalicão 0.00
Alverca 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Famalicão Alverca
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Famalicão 0.00
Alverca 0.00
Famalicão
Alverca
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ALV had peak pressure around 63'.
  • FCF started the game with stronger pressure.
FCF Pressure ALV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ALV reached the top pressure at 63' (64.11).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Famalicão FCF Home
1 matches
Alverca ALV Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-16T19:15:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
L. Carević
Montenegro
25 L. Carević
R. Pinheiro Ferreira
Portugal
17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
L. Realpe Montaño
Ecuador
3 L. Realpe Montaño
J. de Haas
Netherlands
16 J. de Haas
L. Soares Alves
Portugal
5 L. Soares Alves
M. De Amorim
France
14 M. De Amorim
T. van de Looi
Substitution
Netherlands
6 T. van de Looi
G. Bastião Dias
Substitution
Portugal
23 G. Bastião Dias
G. Alves Freitas Azevedo Sá
Substitution
Portugal
20 G. Alves Freitas Azevedo Sá
M. Lopes Moura
Substitution
Brazil
7 M. Lopes Moura
S. Elisor
Substitution
France
12 S. Elisor
Pitch
Matheus Mendes
Brazil
31 Matheus Mendes
S. Baseya
France
14 S. Baseya
I. de La Caridad Caldeira dos Santos
Belgium
15 I. de La Caridad Caldeira dos Santos
K. Marques Naves
Brazil
4 K. Marques Naves
D. Spencer Marques
Portugal
82 D. Spencer Marques
L. Oliveira dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
18 L. Oliveira dos Santos
R. Simião Gomes
Substitution
Brazil
26 R. Simião Gomes
N. Zoubdi Touaizi
Substitution
Morocco
2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
Chiquinho
Portugal
10 Chiquinho
S. Cesar
Substitution
Brazil
91 S. Cesar
L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
20 L. Figueiredo dos Santos

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Municipal de Famalicão
Capacity :
5307
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Cláudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
Sérgio Nuno Teixeira de Jesus
Tiago José Pereira Costa
Fábio Oliveira Melo

Statistics

Possession
FCF
49%
ALV
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 6
53 Dangerous attacks 21
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

13 Throwins 18
17 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
8 Successful Headers 8
10 Goal Kicks 11
6 Dribble Attempts 16
1 Successful Dribbles 12
1 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

80 Attacks 87
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

411 Passes 418
357 Successful Passes 357
33 Long Passes 45
87 Successful Passes Percentage 85
13 Successful Long Passes 26
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
9 Key Passes 4

Defensive

33 Duels Won 38
17 Tackles 10
7 Interceptions 6
1 Saves 1

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 7
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Cláudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira

Starting XI ▼

25
Lazar Carević
Lazar Carević Goalkeeper
7.01
3
Léo Realpe
Léo Realpe Defender
6.88
5
Rafa Soares
Rafa Soares Defender
6.79
16
Justin de Haas
Justin de Haas Defender
7.07
17
Rodrigo Pinheiro
Rodrigo Pinheiro Defender
6.98
6
Tom van de Looi
Tom van de Looi Midfielder
6.9
80
Pedro Santos
Pedro Santos
Attacker81'
6.74
7
Sorriso
Sorriso Midfielder
7.05
8
Marcos Peña
Marcos Peña
Midfielder87'
6.64
14
Mathias de Amorim
Mathias de Amorim Midfielder
6.97
20
Gustavo Sá
Gustavo Sá Midfielder
6.98
77
Antoine Joujou
Antoine Joujou
Attacker87'
6.77
23
Gil Dias
Gil Dias Midfielder
7.03
18
Roméo Beney
Roméo Beney
Attacker81'
6.56
12
Simon Elisor
Simon Elisor Attacker
6.7
9
Umar Abubakar
Umar Abubakar
Attacker65'
6.58
Referee : Cláudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira

Starting XI ▼

31
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira Goalkeeper
6.92
4
Kaiky Marques Naves
Kaiky Marques Naves Defender
6.93
14
Steven Baseya
Steven Baseya Defender
6.6
15
Ikker Julian de La Caridad Caldeira dos Santos
Ikker Julian de La Caridad Caldeira dos Santos Defender
6.59
2
Nabil Touaizi
Nabil Touaizi Midfielder
6.76
37
Kauan
Kauan
Defender90+1'
6.23
18
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos Midfielder
7.07
98
Fabrício Garcia
Fabrício Garcia
Attacker88'
6.76
26
Rhaldney
Rhaldney Midfielder
6.68
6
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui
Midfielder81'
6.67
82
Diogo Spencer
Diogo Spencer Midfielder
6.63
10
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira Attacker
7
20
Figueiredo
Figueiredo Attacker
7.02
17
Vasco Moreira
Vasco Moreira
Midfielder88'
6.69
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima Attacker
6.75
77
Felipe de Almeida Lima
Felipe de Almeida Lima
Attacker88'
6.49

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Kauan → Nabil Touaizi
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Fabrício Garcia → Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Vasco Moreira → Figueiredo
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Felipe de Almeida Lima → Sandro Lima
8th Substitution
Event
Marcos Peña → Sorriso
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Antoine Joujou → Gustavo Sá
5th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Umar Abubakar
Header / 1st Goal
83'
Event
Pedro Santos → Tom van de Looi
4th Substitution
81'
Event
Roméo Beney → Gil Dias
2nd Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui → Rhaldney
3rd Substitution
Event
Umar Abubakar → Simon Elisor
1st Substitution
65'
1ST-HALF
Event
Tom van de Looi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
20'
Event
Nabil Touaizi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Kauan is substituted for Nabili Zoubdi Touaizi.
89
Attempt Attempt
Umar Abubakar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Update Update
Vasco Moreira comes on for Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos.
88
Substitution Substitution
Fabricio Garcia Andrade is substituted for Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos.
87
Update Update
Antoine Joujou is on, and Gustavo Filipe Alves Freitas Azevedo Sa is off.
87
Update Update
Marcos Pena is on, and Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura is off for Sorriso.
85
Attempt Attempt
Davy Gui takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Umar Abubakar scores with a header.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Umar Abubakar scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Luis Rafael Soares Alves, Rafa.
81
Substitution Substitution
Davy Gui is substituted for Rhaldney.
81
Update Update
Pedro Francisco replaces Tom van de Looi.
81
Update Update
Romeo Beney replaces Gil Dias.
64
Update Update
Umar Abubakar replaces Simon Elisor.
63
Attempt Attempt
Nabili Zoubdi Touaizi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Kaiky Naves attempts a header but misses the shot.
47
Attempt Attempt
Tom van de Looi takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
40
Attempt Attempt
Nabili Zoubdi Touaizi attempts a header but misses the shot.
39
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tom van de Looi receives a yellow card.
34
Attempt Attempt
Steven Baseya takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
31
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura of Sorriso takes a shot with his head but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Filipe Alves Freitas Azevedo Sa takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Chiquinho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Tom van de Looi has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Gil Dias takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
14
Update Update
Simon Elisor takes a header, but it misses the target.
14
Attempt Attempt
Gil Dias takes a left-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Pinheiro Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Famalicão secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Alverca that reflected their status as the stronger side. The match stayed level at halftime before the hosts found the decisive goal after the break. Equal possession figures showed both teams enjoyed comparable time on the ball yet only Famalicão converted their chance. Absence of red cards allowed uninterrupted flow and tactical battles to develop fully. The win provides Famalicão with valuable momentum while Alverca must review their limited attacking output. Second-half adjustments ultimately separated the sides in a low-scoring affair. This result highlights the value of persistence when early opportunities remain scarce for both teams involved.

Famalicão vs Alverca preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Liga Portugal, Portugal View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.