Falkirk vs Rangers Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Falkirk Community Stadium Sat, 16 May - 11:30 AM
Premiership
Falkirk Falkirk
2 Winner 5
Rangers RAN
Full Time Sat, 16 May 11:30 AM
Round 38 2nd Phase
Calvin Miller - 44' (P)
Jack Butland - 7' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Thelo Aasgaard - 79' (P)
Youssef Chermiti - 47', 6', 2'
Djeidi Gassama - 27'

CONTEXT

Falkirk hosted Rangers in a match that concluded with a 2-5 scoreline after Rangers led 2-3 at halftime. Falkirk controlled 55 percent of possession while Rangers held 45 percent yet converted opportunities more effectively. Expected goals registered 1.99 for Falkirk and 2.43 for Rangers producing a differential of minus 0.44. No red cards were issued to either team during the contest. Rangers as the stronger side claimed the win and the result proved consistent with underlying metrics. Pre-match indicators showed minimal deviation of 2.4 percent aligned to Rangers. The second half saw Rangers extend their advantage through sustained pressure and clinical execution against a Falkirk side that started brightly but faded after the interval.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Falkirk held 55 percent possession against Rangers 45 percent revealing a structural deviation from expected dominance.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with Rangers superior conversion rates across both halves.
  • xG alignment: Outcome aligned with xG as Rangers 2.43 exceeded Falkirk 1.99 confirming consistency.
  • Market alignment: Result matched pre-match expectations with minimal 2.4 percent deviation for Rangers.
  • xG expectations: Rangers surpassed xG expectations by netting five goals beyond their 2.43 projection.
  • Event impact: Second half adjustments proved decisive in shaping the final 2-5 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards for both teams produced no distortion to overall match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Nicolson

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Bell

1st Assistant

Scotland

E. Powton

2nd Assistant

Scotland

G. Soutar

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.52
Yellow cards / match 4.11
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.29
Falkirk J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
VS
Rangers D. Röhl
D. Röhl
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 75 L
Hibernian Rank: 68 L
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Rangers Rank: 75 L
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Hearts Rank: 74 L
Motherwell Rank: 66 L
Falkirk Rank: 63 W
Dundee United Rank: 61 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Falkirk
0.49%
Draw
1.91%
Away Rangers
97.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.3
75.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Falkirk
Rangers
Power Score
58.3
75.42
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
395
103

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Falkirk Rangers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Falkirk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Falkirk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rangers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.91
38.78
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.78
18.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Falkirk -1.95 Efficiency Index
vs
Rangers +1.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Falkirk
Rangers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Falkirk
vs
Rangers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Falkirk Rangers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Falkirk Rangers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Falkirk
Rangers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Falkirk
vs
Rangers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Falkirk Rangers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Falkirk 0.17
Rangers 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Falkirk Rangers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Falkirk 0.10
Rangers 0.04
Falkirk
Rangers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAN had peak pressure around 35'.
  • RAN started the game with stronger pressure.
Falkirk Pressure RAN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAN reached the top pressure at 35' (91.10).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Falkirk Falkirk Home
18 matches
Rangers RAN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
13
4
Draws
4
13
Losses
1
Goals
16
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
16
-29
Goal Difference
+29

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:54:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Hogarth
Scotland
1 N. Hogarth
F. Yeats
Scotland
14 F. Yeats
L. Neilson
Scotland
15 L. Neilson
L. Henderson
Scotland
5 L. Henderson
S. Hart
Substitution
England
42 S. Hart
H. Cartwright
Substitution
England
17 H. Cartwright
B. Spencer
Substitution
Scotland
8 (C) B. Spencer
C. Miller
Scotland
29 C. Miller
B. Broggio
Substitution
England
11 B. Broggio
E. Ross
Scotland
23 E. Ross
B. Parkinson
Substitution
England
27 B. Parkinson
Pitch
J. Butland
England
1 J. Butland
T. Rommens
Substitution
Belgium
25 T. Rommens
E. Fernandez
England
37 E. Fernandez
J. Souttar
Scotland
5 (C) J. Souttar
N. Djiga
Substitution
Burkina Faso
24 N. Djiga
M. Diomande
Ivory Coast
10 M. Diomande
C. Barron
Substitution
Scotland
8 C. Barron
M. Moore
Substitution
England
47 M. Moore
T. Aasgaard
Substitution
Norway
11 T. Aasgaard
D. Gassama
France
23 D. Gassama
Y. Ramalho Chermiti
Portugal
9 Y. Ramalho Chermiti

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 38 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Falkirk Community Stadium
Capacity :
7937
Attendance :
7148
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Duncan Nicolson
Jonathan Bell
Elliot Husband Powton
Greg Soutar

Statistics

Possession
Falkirk
53%
RAN
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 5
4 Big Chances Created 4
3 Shots 7
48 Dangerous attacks 49
55 Possession 45
7 Corners 4
8 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

13 Throwins 24
5 Successful Dribbles 5
4 Goal Attempts 9
71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
0 Assists 3
7 Dribble Attempts 12
60 Ball Safe 65
5 Substitutions 5
5 Goal Kicks 10
1 Penalties 1

Attacking

76 Attacks 75
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

350 Successful Passes 295
408 Passes 336
62 Long Passes 39
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 67
7 Key Passes 13
86 Successful Passes Percentage 88
34 Successful Long Passes 26

Defensive

37 Duels Won 26
12 Tackles 6
2 Saves 2
10 Interceptions 4

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 16
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

11 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicky Hogarth
Nicky Hogarth Goalkeeper
5.73
5
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Defender
6.07
14
Finn Yeats
Finn Yeats Defender
6.18
15
Lewis Neilson
Lewis Neilson Defender
5.85
42
Sam Hart
Sam Hart Defender
6.37
22
Kyrell Wilson
Kyrell Wilson
Attacker72'
6.76
8
Brad Spencer
Brad Spencer (C) Midfielder
6.58
21
Dylan Tait
Dylan Tait
Midfielder46'
6.95
11
Ben Broggio
Ben Broggio Midfielder
6.05
18
Gary Oliver
Gary Oliver
Attacker64'
6.47
17
Henry Cartwright
Henry Cartwright Midfielder
6.34
20
Connor Allan
Connor Allan
Midfielder46'
6.51
23
Ethan Ross
Ethan Ross Midfielder
6.14
29
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
6.99
27
Ben Parkinson
Ben Parkinson Attacker
6.57
9
Ross MacIver
Ross MacIver
Attacker46'
6.93
Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

1
Jack Butland
Jack Butland Goalkeeper
5.93
5
John Souttar
John Souttar (C) Defender
6.5
24
Nasser Djiga
Nasser Djiga Defender
6.3
3
Max Aarons
Max Aarons
Defender35'
6.44
25
Tuur Rommens
Tuur Rommens Defender
7.07
82
Ashton Scally
Ashton Scally
Defender80'
6.4
37
Emmanuel Fernandez
Emmanuel Fernandez Defender
6.44
8
Connor Barron
Connor Barron Midfielder
6.26
42
Tochi Chukwuani
Tochi Chukwuani
Midfielder64'
6.56
10
Mohamed Diomandé
Mohamed Diomandé Midfielder
7.18
11
Thelo Aasgaard
Thelo Aasgaard Midfielder
6.97
64
Aiden McCallion
Aiden McCallion
Midfielder80'
6.47
23
Djeidi Gassama
Djeidi Gassama Midfielder
7.12
47
Mikey Moore
Mikey Moore Midfielder
6.86
46
Zebedee Lawson
Zebedee Lawson
Attacker80'
6.53
9
Youssef Chermiti
Youssef Chermiti Attacker
3
10

Events

2ND-HALF
80'
Event
Ashton Scally → Tuur Rommens
10th Substitution
80'
Event
Aiden McCallion → Thelo Aasgaard
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Zebedee Lawson → Mikey Moore
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Thelo Aasgaard
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
Event
Kyrell Wilson → Sam Hart
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Gary Oliver → Ben Broggio
6th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Tochi Chukwuani → Connor Barron
5th Substitution
47'
Event
Youssef Chermiti
Header / 4th Goal
Event
Dylan Tait → Brad Spencer
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Ross MacIver → Ben Parkinson
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Connor Allan → Henry Cartwright
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Calvin Miller
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
44'
Event
Calvin Miller
Penalty awarded
42'
35'
Event
Max Aarons → Nasser Djiga
1st Substitution
Event
Calvin Miller
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
32'
27'
Event
Djeidi Gassama
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Brad Spencer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
Event
Henry Cartwright
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'
Event
Jack Butland
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
7'
6'
Event
Youssef Chermiti
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
2'
Event
Youssef Chermiti
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

7
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Jack Butland of Rangers scores an own goal in the 7th minute.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Youssef Chermiti scores for Rangers in the 6th minute.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Youssef Chermiti scores for Rangers at the 2-minute mark.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Falkirk 2-5 Rangers. Structural assessment: Rangers exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Falkirk vs Rangers preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.