Falkirk vs Motherwell Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Falkirk Community Stadium Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Falkirk Falkirk
1 Winner 0
Motherwell MOT
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:00 PM
Round 35 2nd Phase
Henry Cartwright - 63'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Falkirk claimed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Motherwell in a match that defied pre-match expectations, with the home side overcoming the designated stronger team. The first half ended goalless at 0-0, reflecting the even contest as possession hovered around 48% for Falkirk and 52% for Motherwell. The second half saw Falkirk break the deadlock with a single goal, maintaining defensive solidity to secure the win. No red cards disrupted play, and there were no notable tactical adjustments reported. This outcome marked a moderate structural deviation of 9.1% in Falkirk's favor, aligning with market assessments while efficiency stayed in line with norms. Despite missing xG data, the result highlights Falkirk's clinical edge in a low-scoring affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Falkirk's 1-0 win featured a moderate 9.1% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No key events like adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. McFarlane

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Drummond

1st Assistant

S. Duff

2nd Assistant

L. Hogarth

4th Official

Falkirk J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
VS
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.79
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 L
Aberdeen Rank: 59 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 58 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hearts Rank: 72 L
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
Hibernian Rank: 68 D
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Dundee Rank: 59 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 6 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Falkirk
90.94%
Draw
8.68%
Away Motherwell
0.38%

Movement

Changes since opening
Falkirk
-2.45%
Draw
+2.27%
Motherwell
+0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.08
66.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Falkirk
Motherwell
Power Score
60.08
66.74
League Position
6
4
Global Rank
317
274

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Falkirk Motherwell

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Falkirk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Falkirk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.98
32.60
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.60
41.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Falkirk +0.91 Efficiency Index
vs
Motherwell -0.91 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Falkirk
Motherwell
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Falkirk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Falkirk Motherwell
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Falkirk Motherwell
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Falkirk
Motherwell
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Falkirk
vs
Motherwell
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Falkirk Motherwell
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Falkirk 0.42
Motherwell 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Falkirk Motherwell
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Falkirk 0.00
Motherwell 0.02
Falkirk
Motherwell
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Falkirk had peak pressure around 32'.
  • Falkirk started the game with stronger pressure.
Falkirk Pressure MOT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Falkirk reached the top pressure at 32' (71.91).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Falkirk Falkirk Home
21 matches
Motherwell MOT Away
Match Record
7
Wins
8
6
Draws
6
8
Losses
7
Goals
24
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
24
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Hogarth
Scotland
1 N. Hogarth
F. Lissah
Substitution
England
28 F. Lissah
L. Neilson
Scotland
15 L. Neilson
C. Allan
Scotland
20 C. Allan
L. McCann
Substitution
Scotland
3 L. McCann
B. Spencer
Scotland
8 B. Spencer
D. Tait
Substitution
Scotland
21 D. Tait
B. Broggio
Substitution
England
11 B. Broggio
F. Yeats
Scotland
14 F. Yeats
C. Miller
Substitution
Scotland
29 C. Miller
B. Stewart
16 B. Stewart
Pitch
C. Ward
England
13 C. Ward
S. O'Donnell
Scotland
2 S. O'Donnell
S. Welsh
Scotland
57 S. Welsh
P. McGinn
Scotland
16 P. McGinn
T. Sparrow
Substitution
Wales
7 T. Sparrow
E. Watt
Scotland
20 E. Watt
L. Fadinger
Substitution
Austria
12 L. Fadinger
M. Emmanuel
England
45 M. Emmanuel
C. Slattery
Substitution
England
8 C. Slattery
T. Maswanhise
Substitution
Zimbabwe
18 T. Maswanhise
E. Just
New Zealand
21 E. Just

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 35 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Falkirk Community Stadium
Capacity :
7937
Attendance :
7566
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Dan McFarlane
Colin Drummond
Sean Duff
Lewis Hogarth

Statistics

Possession
Falkirk
49%
MOT
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 1
14 Shots 10
43 Dangerous attacks 59
48 Possession 52
2 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 10
13 Dribble Attempts 8
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
14 Throwins 30
6 Successful Dribbles 5
90 Ball Safe 81
5 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 1
1 Assists 0

Attacking

95 Attacks 105
5 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

422 Passes 444
82 Successful Passes Percentage 79
13 Key Passes 12
36 Successful Long Passes 39
77 Long Passes 75
344 Successful Passes 351
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

3 Saves 4
17 Interceptions 4
20 Tackles 12
49 Duels Won 45

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 22
4 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

0 Offsides 4
12 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Dan McFarlane

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicky Hogarth
Nicky Hogarth Goalkeeper
6.98
3
Leon McCann
Leon McCann Defender
6.75
6
Coll Donaldson
Coll Donaldson
Defender84'
6.76
15
Lewis Neilson
Lewis Neilson Defender
6.52
20
Connor Allan
Connor Allan Defender
6.84
28
Filip Lissah
Filip Lissah Defender
7.01
2
Keelan Adams
Keelan Adams
Defender85'
6.59
8
Brad Spencer
Brad Spencer Midfielder
7.02
11
Ben Broggio
Ben Broggio Midfielder
6.89
22
Kyrell Wilson
Kyrell Wilson
Attacker75'
6.68
14
Finn Yeats
Finn Yeats Midfielder
6.63
21
Dylan Tait
Dylan Tait Midfielder
6.75
17
Henry Cartwright
Henry Cartwright
Midfielder62'
6.53
29
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
6.97
27
Ben Parkinson
Ben Parkinson
Attacker76'
6.39
16
Barney Stewart
Barney Stewart Attacker
7.16
Referee : Dan McFarlane

Starting XI ▼

13
Calum Ward
Calum Ward Goalkeeper
7.08
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Defender
6.84
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow Defender
6.64
90
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said
Attacker62'
6.79
16
Paul McGinn
Paul McGinn Defender
6.95
57
Stephen Welsh
Stephen Welsh Defender
6.46
8
Callum Slattery
Callum Slattery Midfielder
7.18
77
Regan Charles-Cook
Regan Charles-Cook
Attacker76'
6.58
12
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
6.93
19
Sam Nicholson
Sam Nicholson
Attacker77'
6.63
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Midfielder
7.03
66
Callum Hendry
Callum Hendry
Attacker76'
6.72
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Midfielder
7.4
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Midfielder
6.86
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Attacker
7.17

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Elijah Just
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Callum Hendry
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Emmanuel Longelo
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Keelan Adams → Filip Lissah
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Coll Donaldson → Leon McCann
8th Substitution
84'
77'
Event
Sam Nicholson → Lukas Fadinger
7th Substitution
Event
Ben Parkinson → Calvin Miller
6th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Regan Charles-Cook → Callum Slattery
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Callum Hendry → Tawanda Maswanhise
5th Substitution
Event
Kyrell Wilson → Ben Broggio
3rd Substitution
75'
Event
Finn Yeats
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Henry Cartwright
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
63'
Event
Henry Cartwright → Dylan Tait
1st Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Ibrahim Said → Tom Sparrow
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Jens Askou
Argument / 10th Yellowcard
Event
Dylan Tait
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
55'
50'
Event
Callum Slattery
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Tom Sparrow
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Brad Spencer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
29'
Event
Ben Broggio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
28'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Callum Hendry receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Stephen Welsh attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emmanuel Longelo receives a yellow card.
88
Attempt Attempt
Barney Stewart takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Stephen Odonnell takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Callum Hendry's right-footed shot is blocked.
85
Update Update
Keelan Adams is on, and Filip Lissah is off.
84
Substitution Substitution
Coll Donaldson is substituted for Leon McCann.
82
Attempt Attempt
Filip Lissah attempts a header but misses the shot.
81
Attempt Attempt
Kyrell Wilson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Update Update
Sam Nicholson comes on for Lukas Fadinger.
76
Substitution Substitution
Callum Hendry is substituted for Tawanda Maswanhise.
76
Update Update
Regan Charles-Cook replaces Callum Slattery.
76
Update Update
Ben Parkinson is on, and Calvin Miller is off.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Finn Yeats.
75
Update Update
Kyrell Wilson is on, and Benjamin Tomaso Broggio is off.
66
Attempt Attempt
Calvin Miller takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Henry Cartwright takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
62
Update Update
Henry Cartwright is on, and Dylan Tait is off.
62
Update Update
Sam Nicholson is on, and Tom Sparrow is off.
61
Attempt Attempt
Finn Yeats takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Filip Lissah's left-footed shot is blocked.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dylan Tait receives a yellow card.
54
Attempt Attempt
Tawanda Maswanhise attempts a header but misses the shot.
54
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Longelo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Update Update
Barney Stewart's header attempt misses the target.
49
Attempt Attempt
Tawanda Maswanhise takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Barney Stewart's right-footed shot is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Barney Stewart takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Barney Stewart's right-footed shot is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Benjamin Tomaso Broggio with his right foot, but it misses the target.
37
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Tomaso Broggio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Watt takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Longelo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Filip Lissah takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Benjamin Tomaso Broggio.
27
Attempt Attempt
Barney Stewart takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Barney Stewart takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Dylan Tait takes a left-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Elijah Henry takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
20
Attempt Attempt
Callum Slattery takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Stephen Odonnell takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Tom Sparrow's header is saved.
14
Attempt Attempt
Elijah Henry takes a shot with his left foot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Barney Stewart takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Attempt Attempt
Calvin Miller takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Falkirk's narrow 1-0 triumph over Motherwell underscores their resilience against a stronger opponent, flipping expectations in a balanced encounter. With even halftime scoreline and possession stats, the home team's second-half precision proved decisive. This moderate deviation result, market-aligned and free of disruptions, boosts Falkirk's momentum while exposing Motherwell's finishing woes. Efficiency holding steady signals consistent performance levels, setting a positive tone for future fixtures in competitive play.

Falkirk vs Motherwell preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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