Falkirk vs Hibernian Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Falkirk Community Stadium Sat, 9 May - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Falkirk Falkirk
1 Winner 3
Hibernian HIB
Full Time Sat, 9 May 2:00 PM
Round 36 2nd Phase
Ben Broggio - 72'
Goal
|
Goal
Jordan Obita - 40'
Josh Campbell - 20', 3'

CONTEXT

Hibernian delivered a clinical performance to secure a 3-1 victory over Falkirk, defying the home side's 68% possession dominance. The visitors exploded into a 3-0 halftime lead, exploiting Falkirk's defensive lapses on the counter-attack while stifling any early threats. Falkirk, trailing badly, pushed forward in the second half but managed only a late consolation goal, unable to dismantle Hibernian's resolute backline. As the stronger team, Hibernian maintained control through efficiency rather than territory, with no red cards or major disruptions altering the flow. This result underscored Hibernian's tactical superiority, as they converted limited chances into a decisive win despite Falkirk's sustained pressure. The minimal structural deviation of 2.1% perfectly captured the expected hierarchy in this encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal 2.1% deviation favored Hibernian's expected dominance.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match evaluations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable without performance metrics.
  • Event impact: No key events or adjustments altered match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured undistorted game dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Lee

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Stewart

1st Assistant

Scotland

D. Potter

2nd Assistant

Scotland

J. Hay

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.77
Yellow cards / match 3.13
Red cards / match 0.19
Penalties / match 0.21
Falkirk J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
VS
Hibernian D. Gray
D. Gray
1.43
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.43
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
St. Mirren Rank: 55 L
Aberdeen Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Hearts Rank: 73 L
Aberdeen Rank: 60 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 58 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 D
Livingston Rank: 55 D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 6 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Falkirk
0.22%
Draw
1.92%
Away Hibernian
97.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.22
67.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Falkirk
Hibernian
Power Score
60.22
67.53
League Position
6
5
Global Rank
316
264

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
Hibernian — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Falkirk Hibernian

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Falkirk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hibernian

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Falkirk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hibernian
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.74
34.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.38
15.74
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Falkirk -1.80 Efficiency Index
vs
Hibernian +1.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Falkirk
Hibernian
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Falkirk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hibernian
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Falkirk Hibernian
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Falkirk Hibernian
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Falkirk
Hibernian
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Falkirk
vs
Hibernian
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Falkirk Hibernian
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Falkirk 0.15
Hibernian 0.50
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Falkirk Hibernian
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Falkirk 0.15
Hibernian 0.02
Falkirk
Hibernian
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Falkirk had peak pressure around 90'.
  • Falkirk started the game with stronger pressure.
Falkirk Pressure HIB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Falkirk reached the top pressure at 90' (77.84).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Falkirk Falkirk Home
18 matches
Hibernian HIB Away
Match Record
4
Wins
8
6
Draws
6
8
Losses
4
Goals
19
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
19
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:03:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
N. Hogarth
Scotland
1 N. Hogarth
F. Lissah
Substitution
England
28 F. Lissah
L. Neilson
Scotland
15 L. Neilson
C. Allan
Scotland
20 C. Allan
L. McCann
Substitution
Scotland
3 L. McCann
B. Spencer
Scotland
8 B. Spencer
D. Tait
Substitution
Scotland
21 D. Tait
K. Wilson
Substitution
England
22 K. Wilson
F. Yeats
Substitution
Scotland
14 F. Yeats
C. Miller
Scotland
29 C. Miller
B. Stewart
16 B. Stewart
Pitch
R. Sallinger
Austria
1 R. Sallinger
J. Iredale
Australia
15 J. Iredale
G. Hanley
Scotland
4 G. Hanley
W. O'Hora
Republic of Ireland
5 W. O'Hora
J. Obita
England
21 J. Obita
D. Barlaser
England
22 D. Barlaser
M. Changa Chaiwa
Substitution
Zambia
14 M. Changa Chaiwa
F. Passlack
Germany
25 F. Passlack
J. Campbell
Substitution
Scotland
32 J. Campbell
O. Elding
Substitution
England
47 O. Elding
M. Boyle
Substitution
Australia
10 M. Boyle

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 36 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Falkirk Community Stadium
Capacity :
7937
Attendance :
7644
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ryan Lee
Graeme Stewart
Dougie Potter
Josh Hay

Statistics

Possession
Falkirk
62%
HIB
38%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 3
1 Shots 4
54 Dangerous attacks 20
68 Possession 32
6 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

13 Dribble Attempts 11
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
23 Throwins 19
1 Assists 3
6 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Goal Kicks 10
4 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 4
92 Ball Safe 79
4 Injuries 2

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
91 Attacks 63

Possession

82 Long Passes 84
43 Successful Long Passes 30
495 Passes 234
399 Successful Passes 131
5 Key Passes 7
81 Successful Passes Percentage 56
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

Defensive

42 Duels Won 43
7 Interceptions 6
9 Tackles 10
2 Saves 0

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 5
38 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicky Hogarth
Nicky Hogarth Goalkeeper
3
Leon McCann
Leon McCann Defender
5
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson
Defender37'
15
Lewis Neilson
Lewis Neilson Defender
20
Connor Allan
Connor Allan Defender
28
Filip Lissah
Filip Lissah Defender
23
Ethan Ross
Ethan Ross
Attacker70'
8
Brad Spencer
Brad Spencer Midfielder
14
Finn Yeats
Finn Yeats Midfielder
11
Ben Broggio
Ben Broggio
Midfielder59'
21
Dylan Tait
Dylan Tait Midfielder
17
Henry Cartwright
Henry Cartwright
Midfielder70'
22
Kyrell Wilson
Kyrell Wilson Midfielder
27
Ben Parkinson
Ben Parkinson
Attacker59'
29
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
16
Barney Stewart
Barney Stewart Attacker
Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

1
Raphael Sallinger
Raphael Sallinger Goalkeeper
4
Grant Hanley
Grant Hanley Defender
5
Warren O'Hora
Warren O'Hora Defender
15
Jack Iredale
Jack Iredale Defender
14
Miguel Chaiwa
Miguel Chaiwa Midfielder
28
Kai Andrews
Kai Andrews
Midfielder75'
21
Jordan Obita
Jordan Obita Midfielder
22
Dan Barlaser
Dan Barlaser Midfielder
25
Felix Passlack
Felix Passlack Midfielder
10
Martin Boyle
Martin Boyle Attacker
77
Ante Suto
Ante Suto
Attacker75'
32
Josh Campbell
Josh Campbell Attacker
2
11
Joe Newell
Joe Newell
Midfielder64'
47
Owen Elding
Owen Elding Attacker
12
Chris Cadden
Chris Cadden
Defender90+3'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Chris Cadden → Owen Elding
9th Substitution
75'
Event
Kai Andrews → Miguel Chaiwa
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Ante Suto → Martin Boyle
8th Substitution
Event
Ben Broggio
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
72'
Event
Henry Cartwright → Dylan Tait
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Ethan Ross → Filip Lissah
6th Substitution
70'
64'
Event
Joe Newell → Josh Campbell
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Josh Campbell
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ben Broggio → Finn Yeats
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Ben Parkinson → Kyrell Wilson
3rd Substitution
59'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Jordan Obita
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Liam Henderson → Leon McCann
1st Substitution
37'
20'
Event
Josh Campbell
Header / 2nd Goal
3'
Event
Josh Campbell
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Peter Newell takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Christopher Cadden replaces Owen Elding.
86
Update Update
Ethan Ross's header attempt misses the target.
84
Attempt Attempt
Calvin Miller takes a left-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Barney Stewart's right-footed shot is blocked.
75
Update Update
Ante Suto replaces Martin Boyle.
75
Update Update
Kai Andrews comes on for Miguel Chaiwa.
72
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Benjamin Tomaso Broggio takes a right-footed shot.
70
Update Update
Ethan Ross comes on for Filip Lissah.
70
Update Update
Henry Cartwright is on, and Dylan Tait is off.
65
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Obita takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Update Update
Joseph Peter Newell is on, and Josh Campbell is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Martin Boyle takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
62
Attempt Attempt
Martin Boyle takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Update Update
Ben Parkinson comes on for Kyrell Wilson.
59
Update Update
Benjamin Tomaso Broggio is on, and Finn Yeats is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Brad Spencer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Obita scores with a left-footed shot.
37
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Obita takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
36
Update Update
Liam Henderson comes on for Leon McCann.
33
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Barlaser takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Barlaser takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Kyrell Wilson's right-footed shot is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Josh Campbell takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
15
Attempt Attempt
Warren O'Hora attempts a header but misses the shot.
12
Attempt Attempt
Calvin Miller takes a left-footed shot but misses.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Josh Campbell scores, making it 0-1.
3
Attempt Attempt
Josh Campbell takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.

CONCLUSION

Hibernian's 3-1 win epitomized efficiency over possession, storming to a 3-0 halftime lead before Falkirk's late reply proved futile. Dominating just 32% of the ball, the visitors showcased superior chance conversion and defensive solidity, affirming their stronger status. Falkirk's 68% control yielded minimal threat, highlighting tactical shortcomings against a well-drilled opponent. With no red cards or disruptions, the outcome reflected true team hierarchies, minimal deviations, and aligned efficiencies. This performance positions Hibernian favorably moving forward, while Falkirk must address conversion issues to compete at this level.

Falkirk vs Hibernian preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premiership, Scotland View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ