Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands

Van Donge & De Roo Stadion Sat, 4 Apr - 7:00 PM

Eredivisie

Excelsior EXC

NEC Nijmegen NEC

Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 7:00 PM

Round 29 Regular Season

Başar Önal - 71'

Bryan Linssen - 30'

CONTEXT

The match between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen has finished, with the away side securing a comfortable 2-0 victory. NEC Nijmegen established an early advantage, leading 1-0 at halftime before adding a second-half goal to seal the full-time result. The outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which favored the visitors. NEC Nijmegen entered the game with a 49.4% probability of winning, compared to Excelsior's 26.5% chance and a 24.1% likelihood of a draw. By securing the win, the final result represented a significant deviation level in favor of NEC Nijmegen, confirming their pre-game status as the stronger team. On the pitch, NEC Nijmegen controlled the tempo, holding 55% of the possession to Excelsior's 45%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. However, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with expectations. The match also proceeded smoothly without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: NEC Nijmegen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Bos

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Koopman

1st Assistant

S. Nanninga

2nd Assistant

M. Perez

4th Official

R. den Uil

D. Schreuder

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.81

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

7 - 3 - 7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Excelsior

26.47%

Draw

24.09%

NEC Nijmegen

49.44%

Team Power Ranking

49.85

75.1

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen

Power Score

49.85

75.1

League Position

Global Rank

530

105

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Excelsior — Opponent-weighted form score

NEC Nijmegen — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Excelsior NEC Nijmegen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Excelsior

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

NEC Nijmegen

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Excelsior ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy NEC Nijmegen

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

23.22

27.09

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

27.09

23.22

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Excelsior -0.41 Efficiency Index

NEC Nijmegen +0.41 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Excelsior ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy NEC Nijmegen

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Excelsior NEC Nijmegen

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Excelsior NEC Nijmegen

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Excelsior NEC Nijmegen

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Excelsior NEC Nijmegen

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Excelsior EXC Home

17 matches

NEC Nijmegen NEC Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-8

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

1 S. van Gassel

2 I. Bronkhorst

3 R. Meissen

4 C. Widell

14 L. Schouten

12 A. Zagre

30 D. Sanches Fernandes

10 N. Naujoks

20 L. Hartjes

7 E. Hansson

11 G. de Regt

1 G. Crettaz

24 D. Fonville

3 P. Sandler

14 E. Dasa

11 B. Onal

23 K. Sano

6 D. Nejašmić

25 S. Ouaissa

20 N. Lebreton

10 T. Chery

30 B. Linssen

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 04, 2026, 07:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 29 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Capacity :

4500

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Alex Bos

Erik Koopman

Sjoerd Nanninga

Martin Perez

Statistics

Possession

EXC

46%

NEC

54%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 2

9 Shots 12

29 Dangerous attacks 58

45 Possession 55

2 Corners 5

9 Free kicks 8

Match Overview

72 Ball Safe 62

36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64

18 Throwins 26

10 Goal Kicks 5

0 Assists 2

4 Successful Dribbles 9

11 Dribble Attempts 14

17 Successful Headers 13

5 Substitutions 4

0 Injuries 1

6 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

86 Attacks 121

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 82

368 Passes 450

278 Successful Passes 368

79 Long Passes 59

8 Key Passes 9

43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34

34 Successful Long Passes 20

Defensive

3 Saves 5

43 Duels Won 40

15 Tackles 10

8 Interceptions 6

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 15

1 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

8 Fouls 9

2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Alex Bos

Manager ▼

R. den Uil Coach

Starting XI ▼

Stijn van Gassel Goalkeeper

Ilias Bronkhorst Defender

Adam Carlén

Midfielder90+1'

Rick Meissen Defender

Casper Widell Defender

Arthur Zagré Defender

Simon Janssen

Defender76'

Lewis Schouten Defender

Emil Hansson Midfielder

Irakli Yegoian

Midfielder60'

Noah Naujoks Midfielder

Lennard Hartjes Midfielder

Mike van Duinen

Attacker76'

Derensili Sanches Fernandes Midfielder

Szymon Wlodarczyk

Attacker90+1'

Gyan de Regt Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Irakli Yegoian

Midfielder60'

Simon Janssen

Defender76'

Mike van Duinen

Attacker76'

Adam Carlén

Midfielder90+1'

Szymon Wlodarczyk

Attacker90+1'

Bench ▼

Calvin Raatsie Goalkeeper

Giulliano Cairo Midfielder

Noa el Hamdaoui Midfielder

Referee : Alex Bos

Manager ▼

D. Schreuder Coach

Starting XI ▼

Gonzalo Crettaz Goalkeeper

Philippe Sandler Defender

Eli Dasa Defender

Brayann Pereira

Defender81'

Deveron Fonville Defender

Ahmetcan Kaplan

Defender85'

Darko Nejasmic Midfielder

Başar Önal Midfielder

Dirk Proper

Midfielder80'

Kodai Sano Midfielder

Sami Ouaissa Midfielder

Tjaronn Chery Attacker

Noé Lebreton Attacker

Bryan Linssen Attacker

Danilo

Attacker81'

Substitutes ▼

Dirk Proper

Midfielder80'

Danilo

Attacker81'

Brayann Pereira

Defender81'

Ahmetcan Kaplan

Defender85'

Bench ▼

Jasper Cillessen Goalkeeper

Rijk Janse Goalkeeper

Thomas Ouwejan Defender

Bram Nuytinck Defender

Isak Hansen-Aarøen Midfielder

Willum Thór Willumsson Midfielder

Koki Ogawa Attacker

Youssef El Kachati Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF

Adam Carlén →

8th Substitution

90+1'

Szymon Wlodarczyk →

9th Substitution

90+1'

85'

Ahmetcan Kaplan →

7th Substitution

81'

Danilo →

5th Substitution

81'

Brayann Pereira →

6th Substitution

80'

Dirk Proper →

4th Substitution

Simon Janssen →

3rd Substitution

76'

Mike van Duinen →

2nd Substitution

76'

71'

Başar Önal

Right foot shot / 2nd Goal

Irakli Yegoian →

1st Substitution

60'

1ST-HALF

30'

Bryan Linssen

Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

Substitution

Substitution for Excelsior: Szymon Wlodarczyk replaces Derensili Sanches Fernandes.

Update

Foul committed by Rick Meissen of Excelsior.

Update

Noé Lebreton from N.E.C. won a free kick on the left wing.

Attempt

Tjaronn Chery from N.E.C. had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but it went just to the left. Noé Lebreton provided the assist.

Update

There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Noah Naujoks from Excelsior.

Update

The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.

Substitution

Substitution for Excelsior: Adam Carlén replaces Ilias Bronkhorst.

Update

The second half ends with Excelsior losing 0-2 to N.E.C.

Update

Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior won a free kick on the right wing.

Corner

Danilo from N.E.C. attempts an attack, heading the ball from the center of the box, but Stijn van Gassel from Excelsior makes a save in the top left corner. The assist came from Tjaronn Chery with a cross.

Update

Fouled by Ahmetcan Kaplan of N.E.C.

Corner

N.E.C. is awarded a corner after Lewis Schouten concedes it.

Substitution

Substitution for N.E.C.: Ahmetcan Kaplan replaces Deveron Fonville due to injury.

Update

There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Deveron Fonville of N.E.C.

Attempt

Mike van Duinen from Excelsior missed a header from the center of the box. The assist was provided by Irakli Yegoian.

Substitution

Substitution for N.E.C.: Brayann Pereira replaces Eli Dasa.

Update

Noah Naujoks from Excelsior won a free kick in an attacking position.

Substitution

Substitution for N.E.C.: Danilo comes on for Bryan Linssen.

Attempt

New attacking attempt. Gyan de Regt from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Gonzalo Crettaz from N.E.C. The assist comes from Derensili Sanches Fernandes.

Substitution

Substitution for N.E.C.: Dirk Proper replaces Basar Önal.

Update

Foul committed by Mike van Duinen of Excelsior.

Update

Darko Nejasmic from N.E.C. won a free kick in defense.

Attempt

Sami Ouaissa from N.E.C. misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes high and wide to the left. Noé Lebreton provided the assist.

Update

There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ilias Bronkhorst from Excelsior.

Substitution

Substitution for Excelsior: Mike van Duinen replaces Lennard Hartjes.

Update

Basar Önal from N.E.C. won a free kick on the left wing.

Update

Fouled by Lewis Schouten of Excelsior.

Substitution

Substitution for Excelsior: Simon Janssen replaces Arthur Zagré.

Attempt

Missed chance. Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior shot with his left foot from the center of the box.

GOAL! Important

Goal! N.E.C. leads 2-0 against Excelsior. Basar Önal scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Sami Ouaissa's through ball.

Attempt

New attacking attempt. Gyan de Regt from Excelsior takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved by N.E.C. goalkeeper Gonzalo Crettaz. The assist was provided by Ilias Bronkhorst.

Corner

Corner awarded to Excelsior after Gonzalo Crettaz concedes.

Corner

Corner awarded to Excelsior after Gonzalo Crettaz concedes.

Corner

Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Gonzalo Crettaz of N.E.C. The assist came from Noah Naujoks.

Update

Handball committed by Basar Önal of N.E.C.

Corner

N.E.C. is awarded a corner after Stijn van Gassel concedes.

Corner

Corner awarded to N.E.C. after Stijn van Gassel concedes.

Substitution

Substitution for Excelsior: Irakli Yegoian replaces Emil Hansson.

Update

Gyan de Regt from Excelsior won a free kick in the attacking area.

Update

Gyan de Regt from Excelsior won a free kick in an attacking position.

Attempt

Arthur Zagré's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.

Corner

New attacking attempt. Gyan de Regt of Excelsior heads the ball from the center of the box, but it is saved in the right corner by Gonzalo Crettaz of N.E.C. The assist came from Emil Hansson's cross.

Update

Fouled by Derensili Sanches Fernandes of Excelsior.

Update

Basar Önal from N.E.C. won a free kick in defense.

Attempt

Bryan Linssen from N.E.C. had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went wide.

Corner

N.E.C. is awarded a corner after Lewis Schouten concedes.

Update

The first half ends with Excelsior 0, N.E.C. 1.

Update

The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.

Update

The second half begins with the score at Excelsior 0, N.E.C. 1.

Update

Foul committed by Bryan Linssen of N.E.C.

Update

Casper Widell of Excelsior won a free kick in defense.

Update

Offside called against N.E.C. Bryan Linssen is offside.

Update

Noah Naujoks from Excelsior commits a foul.

Update

Darko Nejasmic from N.E.C. won a free kick on the left wing.

Attempt

Tjaronn Chery's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Basar Önal provided the assist.

GOAL! Important

Goal! N.E.C. takes the lead 1-0 against Excelsior. Bryan Linssen scores with a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, placing it to the left side of the center of the goal. Darko Nejasmic provides the assist.

Attempt

New attacking attempt. Gyan de Regt from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is saved by goalkeeper Gonzalo Crettaz from N.E.C., with an assist from Emil Hansson.

Update

Offside called against Excelsior. Lewis Schouten is offside.

Update

Offside called against N.E.C. Bryan Linssen is in an offside position.

Corner

Corner awarded to N.E.C. after Ilias Bronkhorst concedes.

Update

Arthur Zagré from Excelsior commits a foul.

Update

Sami Ouaissa from N.E.C. won a free kick in defense.

Update

Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.

Update

Kodai Sano from N.E.C. won a free kick in defense.

Update

Foul committed by Deveron Fonville of N.E.C.

Attempt

Gyan de Regt's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Emil Hansson provided the assist.

Update

There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Noé Lebreton from N.E.C.

Attempt

Sami Ouaissa of N.E.C. attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Stijn van Gassel, the goalkeeper for Excelsior. The assist came from Bryan Linssen.

Update

Offside called against Excelsior. Gyan de Regt is offside.

Update

Eli Dasa from N.E.C. won a free kick in defense.

Update

Lennard Hartjes from Excelsior commits a foul.

Attempt

Eli Dasa's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Tjaronn Chery provided the assist.

Corner

Excelsior wins a corner after Kodai Sano concedes.

Update

Foul committed by Darko Nejasmic of N.E.C.

Update

Noah Naujoks from Excelsior won a free kick on the right wing.

Update

Fouled by Basar Önal of N.E.C.

Update

Ilias Bronkhorst from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.

Corner

Corner awarded to N.E.C. after Derensili Sanches Fernandes concedes.

Update

Fouled by Deveron Fonville of N.E.C.

Update

Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior won a free kick in an attacking position.

Update

Kodai Sano from N.E.C. misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the left. The assist was provided by Basar Önal.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: NEC Nijmegen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction, Preview and Stats

STANDINGS

CONTEXT

TL;DR

Quality vs Volume

Open Play vs Set Play

Expected Points

A. Bos

Other match officials

E. Koopman

S. Nanninga

M. Perez

Win Probabilities

Team Power Ranking

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Excelsior

NEC Nijmegen

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

STARTING XI

General Information

Next Match

Statistics

Top Statistics

Match Overview

Attacking

Possession

Defensive

Build-up

Discipline

Lineup

Manager ▼

Starting XI ▼

Substitutes ▼

Bench ▼

Manager ▼

Starting XI ▼

Substitutes ▼

Bench ▼

Events

Match Commentary

CONCLUSION

How We Build This Analysis

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