Excelsior vs FC Volendam Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion Sun, 10 May - 2:45 PM
Eredivisie
Excelsior EXC
1 – 1
FC Volendam VOL
Full Time Sun, 10 May 2:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Gibson Yah - 38' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Benjamin Pauwels - 2'

CONTEXT

Excelsior faced FC Volendam in a tightly contested match that concluded with a 1-1 draw. As the stronger team, Excelsior controlled 67% of possession but struggled to break down their opponents' defense after taking an early lead. FC Volendam equalized before halftime, with the score locked at 1-1 at the break. The second half saw Excelsior maintain dominance in ball control, yet neither side could find a decisive goal. No red cards disrupted play, allowing a fluid game without major interruptions. This result represents a moderate structural deviation of 8.6% for Excelsior, who underperformed relative to their favoritism. Efficiency stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned with pre-match assessments despite the lack of xG data.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited moderate structural deviation of 8.6% favoring Excelsior.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Makkelie

Curaçao 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Hardeman

4th Official

Netherlands

H. Steegstra

1st Assistant

Netherlands

J. de Vries

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.36
Yellow cards / match 2.4
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.1
Excelsior R. den Uil
R. den Uil
VS
FC Volendam R. Kruijs
R. Kruijs
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Groningen Rank: 66 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 72 W
PEC Zwolle Rank: 63 D
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 73 L
Heracles Almelo Rank: 55 D
Feyenoord Rank: 76 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Heerenveen Rank: 70 L
Heracles Almelo Rank: 57 W
FC Twente Rank: 77 L
Feyenoord Rank: 76 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 65 L
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 62 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Excelsior
4.96%
Draw
91.42%
Away FC Volendam
3.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.5
50.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Excelsior
FC Volendam
Power Score
52.5
50.97
League Position
14
16
Global Rank
430
496

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Excelsior — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Volendam — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Excelsior FC Volendam

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Excelsior

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Volendam

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Excelsior ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Volendam
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.78
28.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.94
14.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Excelsior -1.49 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Volendam +1.49 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Excelsior
FC Volendam
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Excelsior ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Volendam
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Excelsior FC Volendam
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Excelsior FC Volendam
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Excelsior
FC Volendam
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Excelsior
vs
FC Volendam
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Excelsior FC Volendam
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Excelsior 0.21
FC Volendam 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Excelsior FC Volendam
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Excelsior 0.03
FC Volendam 0.03
Excelsior
FC Volendam
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • EXC had peak pressure around 12'.
  • EXC started the game with stronger pressure.
EXC Pressure VOL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: EXC reached the top pressure at 12' (66.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Excelsior EXC Home
5 matches
FC Volendam VOL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
3
Goals
11
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
11
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:04:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. van Gassel
Netherlands
1 S. van Gassel
R. Meissen
Substitution
Netherlands
3 R. Meissen
C. Widell
Sweden
4 C. Widell
L. Schouten
Netherlands
14 L. Schouten
A. Zagre
France
12 A. Zagre
N. Naujoks
Substitution
Netherlands
10 N. Naujoks
L. Hartjes
Netherlands
20 L. Hartjes
I. Yegoian
Georgia
23 I. Yegoian
D. Sanches Fernandes
Netherlands
30 D. Sanches Fernandes
G. de Regt
Netherlands
11 G. de Regt
E. Hansson
Substitution
Sweden
7 E. Hansson
Pitch
R. Steur
Netherlands
16 R. Steur
Y. Leliendal
Netherlands
32 Y. Leliendal
N. Verschuren
Netherlands
20 N. Verschuren
M. Amevor
Togo
3 M. Amevor
P. Ugwu
Netherlands
5 P. Ugwu
G. Yah
Netherlands
8 G. Yah
J. Bacuna
Substitution
Netherlands
4 J. Bacuna
B. Pauwels
Substitution
Belgium
29 B. Pauwels
R. Mühren
Substitution
Netherlands
21 R. Mühren
B. Ould-Chikh
Substitution
Netherlands
77 B. Ould-Chikh
A. Descotte
Substitution
Belgium
99 A. Descotte

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Capacity :
4500
Attendance :
4600
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Danny Desmond Makkelie
Thomas Hardeman
Hessel Steegstra
Jan de Vries

Statistics

Possession
EXC
62%
VOL
38%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Shots 5
38 Dangerous attacks 31
67 Possession 33
5 Corners 0
7 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 86
5 Goal Kicks 13
14 Dribble Attempts 7
4 Successful Dribbles 6
23 Successful Headers 22
99 Ball Safe 66
22 Throwins 19
4 Goal Attempts 4
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

104 Attacks 77

Possession

528 Passes 259
83 Long Passes 77
45 Successful Long Passes 25
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
5 Key Passes 5
84 Successful Passes Percentage 61
443 Successful Passes 159

Defensive

47 Duels Won 52
15 Tackles 14
6 Interceptions 6
1 Saves 2

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Danny Desmond Makkelie

Starting XI ▼

1
Stijn van Gassel
Stijn van Gassel Goalkeeper
3
Rick Meissen
Rick Meissen Defender
2
Ilias Bronkhorst
Ilias Bronkhorst
Defender62'
4
Casper Widell
Casper Widell Defender
12
Arthur Zagré
Arthur Zagré Defender
14
Lewis Schouten
Lewis Schouten Defender
10
Noah Naujoks
Noah Naujoks Midfielder
6
Adam Carlén
Adam Carlén
Midfielder69'
20
Lennard Hartjes
Lennard Hartjes Midfielder
23
Irakli Yegoian
Irakli Yegoian Midfielder
7
Emil Hansson
Emil Hansson Attacker
9
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Attacker62'
11
Gyan de Regt
Gyan de Regt Attacker
30
Derensili Sanches Fernandes
Derensili Sanches Fernandes Attacker
Referee : Danny Desmond Makkelie

Starting XI ▼

16
Roy Steur
Roy Steur Goalkeeper
3
Mawouna Amevor
Mawouna Amevor Defender
5
Precious Ugwu
Precious Ugwu Defender
20
Nick Verschuren
Nick Verschuren Defender
32
Yannick Leliendal
Yannick Leliendal Defender
4
Juninho Bacuna
Juninho Bacuna Midfielder
6
Alex Plat
Alex Plat
Midfielder80'
8
Gibson Yah
Gibson Yah Midfielder
21
Robert Mühren
Robert Mühren Midfielder
9
Henk Veerman
Henk Veerman
Attacker61'
29
Benjamin Pauwels
Benjamin Pauwels Midfielder
11
Aurelio Oehlers
Aurelio Oehlers
Attacker71'
77
Bilal Ould-Chikh
Bilal Ould-Chikh Midfielder
40
Robin van Cruijsen
Robin van Cruijsen
Midfielder71'
99
Anthony Descotte
Anthony Descotte Attacker
10
Brandley Kuwas
Brandley Kuwas
Attacker72'

Events

2ND-HALF
80'
Event
Alex Plat
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Alex Plat → Juninho Bacuna
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Henk Veerman
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Adam Carlén
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
75'
72'
Event
Brandley Kuwas → Anthony Descotte
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Robin van Cruijsen → Bilal Ould-Chikh
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Aurelio Oehlers → Benjamin Pauwels
6th Substitution
Event
Adam Carlén → Noah Naujoks
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Ilias Bronkhorst → Rick Meissen
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Szymon Wlodarczyk → Emil Hansson
3rd Substitution
62'
61'
Event
Henk Veerman → Robert Mühren
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Nick Verschuren
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Gibson Yah
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
38'
2'
Event
Benjamin Pauwels
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alex Plat of FC Volendam receives a yellow card for a foul.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Volendam: Alex Plat replaces Juninho Bacuna due to injury.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Alex Plat of FC Volendam.
80
Update Update
Lennard Hartjes from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.
79
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Juninho Bacuna from FC Volendam.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Henk Veerman of FC Volendam.
78
Update Update
Arthur Zagré from Excelsior won a free kick on the left wing.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Henk Veerman of FC Volendam receives a yellow card for a foul.
76
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Brandley Kuwas from FC Volendam took a left-footed shot from over 35 yards on a free kick, but it went high.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Carlén of Excelsior.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adam Carlén of Excelsior receives a yellow card for a foul.
75
Update Update
Gibson Yah from FC Volendam won a free kick in the attacking area.
73
Attempt Attempt
Juninho Bacuna's shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Brandley Kuwas.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Volendam: Brandley Kuwas replaces Anthony Descotte.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Volendam: Robin van Cruijsen replaces Bilal Ould-Chikh.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Volendam: Aurelio Oehlers replaces Benjamin Pauwels.
70
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Benjamin Pauwels from FC Volendam shot with his right foot from the center of the box but missed. The assist came from Henk Veerman with a header.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Adam Carlén replaces Noah Naujoks.
68
Corner Corner
Gyan de Regt from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Roy Steur of FC Volendam. The assist comes from Szymon Wlodarczyk.
66
Attempt Attempt
Mawouna Amevor's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Descotte's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Mawouna Amevor, who provided a header.
65
Update Update
Gibson Yah from FC Volendam won a free kick in an attacking position.
63
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the right.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Ilias Bronkhorst replaces Rick Meissen.
62
Corner Corner
Gibson Yah from FC Volendam had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, just missing the top right corner.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Szymon Wlodarczyk replaces Emil Hansson.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Volendam: Henk Veerman replaces Robert Mühren.
61
Update Update
Juninho Bacuna from FC Volendam won a free kick in an attacking position.
61
Update Update
Irakli Yegoian from Excelsior committed a foul.
59
Attempt Attempt
Juninho Bacuna's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Benjamin Pauwels.
58
Update Update
Robert Mühren from FC Volendam won a free kick on the left wing.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Rick Meissen of Excelsior.
56
Update Update
Offside called against FC Volendam. Anthony Descotte is offside.
54
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Gyan de Regt from Excelsior.
50
Update Update
Benjamin Pauwels from FC Volendam won a free kick on the left wing.
49
Attempt Attempt
Irakli Yegoian's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Derensili Sanches Fernandes.
48
Update Update
Noah Naujoks from Excelsior won a free kick on the right wing.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Juninho Bacuna of FC Volendam.
45
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Anthony Descotte of FC Volendam.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match tied at 1-1 between Excelsior and FC Volendam.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Excelsior and FC Volendam tied at 1-1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gibson Yah from FC Volendam makes an attacking attempt, shooting with his right foot from outside the box. The shot is saved in the top center of the goal by Stijn van Gassel from Excelsior, with an assist from Benjamin Pauwels.
44
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Benjamin Pauwels from FC Volendam.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nick Verschuren of FC Volendam receives a yellow card for a foul.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Nick Verschuren of FC Volendam.
43
Update Update
Stijn van Gassel from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Lennard Hartjes of Excelsior.
42
Update Update
Anthony Descotte of FC Volendam won a free kick on the right wing.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Gibson Yah of FC Volendam scores an own goal, bringing the match to 1-1 against Excelsior.
38
Corner Corner
Excelsior wins a corner after Nick Verschuren concedes.
36
Update Update
Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Yannick Leliendal of FC Volendam.
34
Corner Corner
Excelsior wins a corner, conceded by Roy Steur.
34
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Rick Meissen from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Roy Steur from FC Volendam.
32
Update Update
Bilal Ould-Chikh from FC Volendam won a free kick on the right wing.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Arthur Zagré of Excelsior.
29
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Juninho Bacuna of FC Volendam.
26
Update Update
Mawouna Amevor of FC Volendam won a free kick in defense.
26
Update Update
Fouled by Gyan de Regt of Excelsior.
25
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Gibson Yah from FC Volendam.
24
Corner Corner
Excelsior wins a corner after Nick Verschuren concedes.
24
Attempt Attempt
Noah Naujoks from Excelsior has a left-footed shot from the right side of the box blocked. The assist came from Derensili Sanches Fernandes.
23
Attempt Attempt
Gyan de Regt's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Rick Meissen.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis Schouten of Excelsior.
21
Update Update
Yannick Leliendal from FC Volendam earned a free kick in defense.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Derensili Sanches Fernandes of Excelsior.
15
Update Update
Bilal Ould-Chikh from FC Volendam won a free kick in defense.
15
Corner Corner
Excelsior wins a corner after Nick Verschuren concedes.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Mawouna Amevor of FC Volendam.
9
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Casper Widell from Excelsior heads the ball from the center of the box but it goes high. Assist by Emil Hansson.
9
Attempt Attempt
Emil Hansson's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Lennard Hartjes.
9
Update Update
Emil Hansson from Excelsior won a free kick on the left wing.
5
Corner Corner
Excelsior wins a corner after Precious Ugwu concedes.
4
Update Update
Bilal Ould-Chikh of FC Volendam committed a handball.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Volendam leads 1-0 against Excelsior. Benjamin Pauwels scores with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the right corner, assisted by Juninho Bacuna.

CONCLUSION

Excelsior's 1-1 draw against FC Volendam highlights their possession dominance without clinical finishing. Holding 67% of the ball as the stronger side, they led at halftime but conceded an equalizer, maintaining parity thereafter. The absence of red cards ensured a fair contest, with efficiency holding steady. This moderate deviation underscores Excelsior's failure to capitalize on control, settling for a point. FC Volendam's resilience earned a valuable share, aligning with broader expectations despite data gaps in xG.

Excelsior vs FC Volendam preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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