Everton vs Manchester City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Hill Dickinson Stadium Mon, 4 May - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Everton EVE
3 – 3
Manchester City MCI
Full Time Mon, 4 May 7:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Thierno Barry - 81', 68'
Jake O'Brien - 73'
Goal
|
Goal
Jérémy Doku - 90+7', 43'
Erling Haaland - 83'

CONTEXT

In a pulsating Premier League clash at Goodison Park, Everton rescued a 3-3 draw against Manchester City after trailing 0-1 at halftime. Manchester City dominated with 75% possession, creating numerous chances, but Everton's counter-attacking prowess yielded three second-half goals. The visitors, considered the stronger team, equalized late but could not secure victory despite their control. No red cards disrupted play, allowing an open contest. Everton's resilience turned the game, briefly taking the lead before City's response. This result marks a significant structural deviation for Manchester City from pre-match expectations. Both teams showcased attacking intent, with Everton defying the possession stats to earn a valuable point. The draw reflects Everton's home fighting spirit against elite opposition.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Manchester City recorded a significant 79.6% structural deviation in the 3-3 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment not achieved with the draw outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable as data is null.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments notably impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Oliver

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Burt

1st Assistant

England

N. Greenhalgh

2nd Assistant

England

A. Madley

4th Official

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.28
Yellow cards / match 3.39
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.19
Everton D. Moyes
D. Moyes
VS
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
1.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.22
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Ham United Rank: 83 L
Liverpool Rank: 91 L
Brentford Rank: 88 D
Chelsea Rank: 88 W
Arsenal Rank: 98 L
Burnley Rank: 77 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burnley Rank: 77 W
Arsenal Rank: 98 W
Chelsea Rank: 90 W
West Ham United Rank: 83 D
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 D
Leeds United Rank: 87 W
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 10 - 27
27

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Everton
14.13%
Draw
20.43%
Away Manchester City
65.44%

Movement

Changes since opening
Everton
-75.94%
Draw
+10.88%
Manchester City
+65.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
87.43
98.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Everton
Manchester City
Power Score
87.43
98.03
League Position
10
2
Global Rank
21
2

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Everton — Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Everton Manchester City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Everton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Manchester City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Everton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
60.60
34.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.33
60.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Everton +2.93 Efficiency Index
vs
Manchester City -2.93 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Everton
Manchester City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Everton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Manchester City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Everton Manchester City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Everton Manchester City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Everton
Manchester City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Everton
vs
Manchester City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Everton Manchester City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Everton 0.61
Manchester City 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Everton Manchester City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Everton 0.03
Manchester City 0.13
Everton
Manchester City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MCI had peak pressure around 23'.
  • MCI started the game with stronger pressure.
EVE Pressure MCI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MCI reached the top pressure at 23' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 52 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Everton EVE Home
52 matches
Manchester City MCI Away
Match Record
15
Wins
27
10
Draws
10
27
Losses
15
Goals
51
Goals Scored
86
86
Goals Conceded
51
-35
Goal Difference
+35

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:03:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Pickford
England
1 J. Pickford
J. O´Brien
Republic of Ireland
15 J. O´Brien
J. Tarkowski
England
6 J. Tarkowski
M. Keane
England
5 M. Keane
V. Mykolenko
Ukraine
16 V. Mykolenko
T. Iroegbunam
Substitution
England
42 T. Iroegbunam
J. Garner
England
37 J. Garner
M. Röhl
Substitution
Germany
34 M. Röhl
K. Dewsbury-Hall
Substitution
England
22 K. Dewsbury-Hall
I. Ndiaye
Senegal
10 I. Ndiaye
N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
Substitution
Portugal
9 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
Pitch
G. Donnarumma
Italy
25 G. Donnarumma
N. O'Reilly
England
33 N. O'Reilly
M. Guehi
England
15 M. Guehi
A. Khusanov
Uzbekistan
45 A. Khusanov
M. Nunes
Portugal
27 M. Nunes
B. Silva
Substitution
Portugal
20 B. Silva
N. González Iglesias
Substitution
Spain
14 N. González Iglesias
J. Doku
Belgium
11 J. Doku
M. Cherki
France
10 M. Cherki
A. Semenyo
Substitution
Ghana
42 A. Semenyo
E. Haaland
Norway
9 E. Haaland

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Hill Dickinson Stadium
Capacity :
52888
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Michael Oliver
Stuart Burt
Nick Greenhalgh
Andy Madley

Statistics

Possession
EVE
31%
MCI
69%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 8
23 Dangerous attacks 95
25 Possession 75
5 Corners 9
5 Free kicks 19
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

10 Dribble Attempts 32
3 Successful Dribbles 16
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
12 Goal Kicks 2
18 Throwins 19
16 Successful Headers 15
1 Assists 3
4 Substitutions 3
62 Ball Safe 76
1 Injuries 2
8 Goal Attempts 12

Attacking

63 Attacks 135
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

200 Passes 610
69 Successful Passes Percentage 90
138 Successful Passes 551
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
7 Key Passes 16
18 Successful Long Passes 18
45 Long Passes 39

Defensive

50 Duels Won 64
24 Tackles 18
4 Interceptions 2
1 Saves 3

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 23
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
15 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

1
Jordan Pickford
Jordan Pickford Goalkeeper
6.84
5
Michael Keane
Michael Keane Defender
7
6
James Tarkowski
James Tarkowski Defender
7.14
15
Jake O'Brien
Jake O'Brien Defender
6.71
16
Vitaliy Mykolenko
Vitaliy Mykolenko Defender
6.69
10
Iliman Ndiaye
Iliman Ndiaye Midfielder
6.96
22
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Midfielder
7.08
24
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz
Midfielder90+2'
6.73
34
Merlin Röhl
Merlin Röhl Midfielder
6.59
2
Nathan Patterson
Nathan Patterson
Defender90+2'
6.71
37
James Garner
James Garner Midfielder
7.33
42
Tim Iroegbunam
Tim Iroegbunam Midfielder
6.72
45
Harrison Armstrong
Harrison Armstrong
Midfielder90+6'
6.68
9
Beto
Beto Attacker
6.72
11
Thierno Barry
Thierno Barry
Attacker64'
2
6.6
Referee : Michael Oliver

Starting XI ▼

25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper
6.9
15
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi Defender
7.04
27
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes Defender
7.09
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Defender
6.96
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender
6.89
10
Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki Midfielder
7.35
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Midfielder
2
7.1
14
Nico González
Nico González Midfielder
6.95
8
Mateo Kovacic
Mateo Kovacic
Midfielder75'
6.56
20
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva Midfielder
6.95
7
Omar Marmoush
Omar Marmoush
Attacker87'
6.85
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Midfielder
7
47
Phil Foden
Phil Foden
Midfielder74'
7.29
9
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland Attacker
7.35

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Jérémy Doku
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
Event
Harrison Armstrong → Tim Iroegbunam
7th Substitution
90+6'
Event
Carlos Alcaraz → Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
5th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Nathan Patterson → Merlin Röhl
6th Substitution
90+2'
87'
Event
Omar Marmoush → Bernardo Silva  
4th Substitution
Event
Jake O'Brien
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
86'
83'
Event
Erling Haaland
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Thierno Barry
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
81'
75'
Event
Mateo Kovacic  → Nico González
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Phil Foden → Antoine Semenyo
2nd Substitution
Event
Jake O'Brien
Header / 3rd Goal
73'
Event
Thierno Barry
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
68'
Event
Thierno Barry → Beto
1st Substitution
64'
Event
James Tarkowski
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
53'
Event
Beto
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
48'
1ST-HALF
Event
Michael Keane
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45'
43'
Event
Jérémy Doku
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Nathan Patterson is on, and Merlin Rohl is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jeremy Doku scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Update Update
Carlos Alcaraz replaces Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jeremy Doku scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Update Update
Harrison Armstrong comes on for Tim Iroegbunam.
89
Attempt Attempt
Omar Marmoush takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
87
Update Update
Omar Marmoush comes on for Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva.
87
Attempt Attempt
Phil Foden takes a left-footed shot but misses.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jake O'Brien receives a yellow card.
84
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Kovacic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Erling Haaland scores with a left-footed shot.
81
Attempt Attempt
Thierno Barry scores with a right-footed shot.
79
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Ryan Cherki takes a right-footed shot but misses.
79
Attempt Attempt
Iliman Ndiaye takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Update Update
Phil Foden is on, and Antoine Semenyo is off.
75
Update Update
Mateo Kovacic comes on for Nicolas Gonzalez Iglesias.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Gianluigi Donnarumma.
73
Attempt Attempt
Jake O'Brien takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
72
Attempt Attempt
Iliman Ndiaye takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Erling Haaland's header is saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Thierno Barry scores with a left-footed shot.
66
Attempt Attempt
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Iliman Ndiaye takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Update Update
Thierno Barry is replaced by Beto Betuncal.
60
Attempt Attempt
Iliman Ndiaye takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
James Tarkowski receives a yellow card.
52
Attempt Attempt
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall takes a left-footed shot but misses.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Beto Betuncal receives a yellow card.
47
Attempt Attempt
Beto Betuncal's left-footed shot is blocked.
46
Attempt Attempt
Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Attempt Attempt
Nico O'Reilly's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Michael Vincent Keane receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Marc Guehi takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Jeremy Doku scores with a left-footed shot.
39
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Ryan Cherki takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Jeremy Doku takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Beto Betuncal's right-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Abdukodir Khusanov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Update Update
Michael Vincent Keane's header is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has a left-footed shot that is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Nico O'Reilly's left-footed shot is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Semenyo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Ryan Cherki takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Erling Haaland's left-footed shot is blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Ryan Cherki takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The 3-3 draw at Goodison Park highlights Everton's tenacity, overturning a halftime deficit against possession-heavy Manchester City. City's 75% ball control did not translate to dominance, as Everton matched their scoring output through clinical counters. This outcome signifies a major deviation for the stronger visitors, who faltered in conversion. Absent xG data limits deeper analysis, but visible metrics underscore Everton's second-half momentum. No red cards kept the game fluid, rewarding Everton's grit with a point. For City, it serves as a caution on finishing efficiency. The result energizes Everton while prompting City reflection ahead of future fixtures.

Everton vs Manchester City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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