Estrela Amadora vs Gil Vicente Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio José Gomes Sun, 8 Mar - 3:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Estrela Amadora CFEA
2 – 2
Gil Vicente GVFC
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 3:30 PM
Abraham Marcus - 67'
Jovane Cabral - 54'
Goal
|
Goal
Santiago García González - 69'
Murilo de Souza Costa - 14' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Estrela Amadora 2–1 Gil Vicente. The result saw Estrela Amadora take the points. Estrela Amadora showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 47%–53%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Estrela Amadora showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Branco Godinho

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Martins Teixeira

1st Assistant

P. Mota

2nd Assistant

J. Silva Campos Rodrigues

4th Official

Estrela Amadora J. Rodrigues Carromeu
J. Rodrigues Carromeu
VS
Gil Vicente P. da Silva Peixoto
P. da Silva Peixoto
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.65
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
AVS Rank: D
Tondela Rank: L
Vitória Guimarães Rank: L
Santa Clara Rank: W
Alverca Rank: D
Benfica Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Benfica Rank: L
Estoril Rank: L
Sporting Braga Rank: W
Moreirense Rank: W
Famalicão Rank: W
Porto Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Estrela Amadora
22.56%
Draw
28.81%
Away Gil Vicente
48.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
33.33
54.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Estrela Amadora
Gil Vicente
Power Score
33.33
54.67
League Position
12
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Estrela Amadora — Opponent-weighted form score
Gil Vicente — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Estrela Amadora Gil Vicente

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Estrela Amadora

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gil Vicente

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Estrela Amadora ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gil Vicente
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.85
42.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.17
20.85
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Estrela Amadora -2.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Gil Vicente +2.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Estrela Amadora
Gil Vicente
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Estrela Amadora ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gil Vicente
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Estrela Amadora Gil Vicente
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Estrela Amadora Gil Vicente
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Estrela Amadora
Gil Vicente
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Estrela Amadora CFEA Home
5 matches
Gil Vicente GVFC Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
3
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:10:45+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 08, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Stadium :
Estádio José Gomes
Capacity :
9000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Rui Miguel Martins Teixeira
Pedro Mota
José Carlos Silva Campos Rodrigues

Statistics

Possession
CFEA
47%
GVFC
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 6
16 Dangerous attacks 67
47 Possession 53
0 Corners 8
17 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 3
19 Successful Headers 11
54 Ball Safe 45
17 Throwins 18
11 Dribble Attempts 16
6 Successful Dribbles 6
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1
4 Goal Attempts 8
1 Assists 1

Attacking

59 Attacks 118
0 Counter Attacks 2
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

62 Long Passes 28
82 Successful Passes Percentage 85
306 Successful Passes 334
25 Successful Long Passes 15
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
373 Passes 395
4 Key Passes 9

Defensive

19 Tackles 15
10 Interceptions 7
4 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Total Crosses 25
0 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

16 Fouls 16
7 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Antonio Espigares Morillas → Santiago García González
9th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Rodrigo Prata Deusdado Rodrigues → Murilo de Souza Costa
10th Substitution
Event
Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes → Max Scholze
8th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Zé Carlos → Facundo Agustín Cáseres
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela → Héctor Hernández
7th Substitution
Event
Billal Brahimi → Abraham Marcus
5th Substitution
76'
69'
Event
Santiago García González
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Abraham Marcus
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
67'
Event
Tom Moustier → Ianis Stoica
4th Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Facundo Agustín Cáseres
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Martín Fernández Benítez → Agustín Nahuel Moreira Morales
3rd Substitution
Event
Jovane Cabral
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
54'
Event
Paulo Moreira
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
48'
Event
4th Yellowcard
48'
Event
Eddy Doué → Alex Sola
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Rodrigo Pinho → Luan Patrick
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Murilo de Souza Costa
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
14'
Event
Murilo de Souza Costa
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
12'
Event
Héctor Hernández
Penalty awarded

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, and the match ends in a 2-2 draw between Estrela and Gil Vicente.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Gil Vicente after Bruno Langa allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Gil Vicente: Antonio Espigares comes on to take the place of Santi García.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot on goal was thwarted. Rodrigo Rodrigues from Gil Vicente took a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but Renan Ribeiro from Estrela made a save right in the middle of the goal, with Luís Esteves providing the assist.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Gil Vicente: Rodrigo Rodrigues comes on to take the place of Murilo de Souza.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
88
Update Update
Hevertton Santos of Gil Vicente earns a free kick in their own half.
88
Update Update
Hevertton Santos of Gil Vicente earns a free kick in their own half.
88
Update Update
Marvin Elimbi from Gil Vicente commits a foul.
88
Update Update
Tom Moustier from Estrela commits a foul.
88
Update Update
Otávio from Estrela is awarded a free kick in their own half.
88
Update Update
Otávio from Estrela earns a free kick in the defensive zone.
88
Update Update
Tom Moustier from Estrela commits a foul.
87
Attempt Attempt
The shot was deflected. Santi García from Gil Vicente tried a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. Martín Fernández provided the assist.
87
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Gil Vicente, following a concession by Renan Ribeiro.
84
Update Update
Murilo de Souza from Gil Vicente is awarded a free kick on the right flank.
83
Attempt Attempt
The shot is deflected. Paulo Moreira from Estrela takes a right-footed attempt from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
83
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Rodrigo Pinho from Estrela had a header from the right side of the six-yard area that was blocked.
82
Update Update
Rodrigo Pinho from Estrela committed a handball foul.
81
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt is thwarted. Murilo de Souza from Gil Vicente takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Marvin Elimbi.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estrela: Otávio comes on to replace Max Scholze, who has been injured.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Gil Vicente, following a concession by Max Scholze.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Gil Vicente: Zé Carlos II comes on to take the place of Facundo Cáseres.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Gil Vicente: Gustavo Varela comes on to take the place of Héctor Hernández.
77
Update Update
Offside call against Estrela. Tom Moustier has been flagged for being in an offside position.
76
Update Update
Facundo Cáseres from Gil Vicente earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estrela: Billal Brahimi comes on to replace Abraham Marcus, who has been injured.
76
Update Update
Jovane Cabral commits a foul against Estrela.
75
Update Update
Tom Moustier from Estrela earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
75
Update Update
Martín Fernández from Gil Vicente committed a foul.
74
Attempt Attempt
The shot is denied. Hevertton Santos of Gil Vicente tries a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
73
Update Update
Abraham Marcus from Estrela committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Ghislain Konan from Gil Vicente earns a free kick on the left side of the field.
72
Update Update
Luís Esteves from Gil Vicente earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
72
Update Update
Rodrigo Pinho from Estrela commits a foul.
72
Update Update
Rodrigo Pinho from Estrela commits a foul.
72
Update Update
Facundo Cáseres from Gil Vicente earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
70
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Gil Vicente, following a foul by Max Scholze.
70
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Gil Vicente, following a foul by Tom Moustier.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Estrela 2, Gil Vicente 2. Santi García from Gil Vicente scores with a left-footed strike from the middle of the area.
67
Attempt Attempt
A shot from outside the box by Rodrigo Pinho of Estrela was saved by Lucão of Gil Vicente, who managed to stop the left-footed attempt aimed at the top center of the goal.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Estrela takes the lead 2-1 against Gil Vicente. Abraham Marcus scores with a left-footed strike from just a few yards out, finding the top center of the net after a set piece play.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Facundo Cáseres of Gil Vicente receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
65
Update Update
Max Scholze from Estrela is awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estrela: Tom Moustier comes on to take the place of Ianis Stoica.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Ghislain Konan of Gil Vicente.
65
Update Update
Facundo Cáseres commits a foul for Gil Vicente.
65
Update Update
Abraham Marcus from Estrela is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
63
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal denied. Murilo de Souza from Gil Vicente takes a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but the goalkeeper makes the save.
61
Update Update
Max Scholze from Estrela commits a foul.
61
Update Update
Martín Fernández from Gil Vicente earns a free kick in the defensive zone.
58
Update Update
Jovane Cabral commits a foul against Estrela.
58
Update Update
Facundo Cáseres from Gil Vicente earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Héctor Hernández from Gil Vicente took a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it went wide to the right. The assist came from Santi García.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Gil Vicente: Martín Fernández comes on to take the place of Agustín Moreira.
54
Update Update
Agustín Moreira from Gil Vicente committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Max Scholze from Estrela is awarded a free kick in their own half.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Estrela 1, Gil Vicente 1. Jovane Cabral from Estrela scores with a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area.
52
Update Update
Héctor Hernández from Gil Vicente earns a free kick on the left side of the field.
52
Attempt Attempt
A shot attempt was thwarted. Luís Esteves of Gil Vicente tried a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Facundo Cáseres.
52
Update Update
Stefan Lekovic from Estrela commits a foul.
49
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Facundo Cáseres from Gil Vicente took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area after a set piece.
48
Update Update
Luís Esteves from Gil Vicente earns a free kick on the left side of the field.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Paulo Moreira of Estrela.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Paulo Moreira from Estrela receives a yellow card for committing a serious foul.
46
Update Update
Jovane Cabral from Estrela earns a free kick in his own half.
46
Update Update
Santi García commits a foul for Gil Vicente.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estrela: Rodrigo Pinho comes on to take the place of Luan Patrick.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estrela: Eddy Doué comes on to take the place of Alex Sola.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Luís Esteves from Gil Vicente takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that goes just wide to the left after a direct free kick.
45
Update Update
Jonathan Buatu from Gil Vicente committed a handball.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Murilo de Souza from Gil Vicente receives a yellow card.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Offside call against Estrela. Ianis Stoica has been flagged for being in an offside position.
45
Update Update
Abraham Marcus from Estrela committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Agustín Moreira from Gil Vicente has been awarded a free kick in the opponent's half.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with a score of Estrela 0, Gil Vicente 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estrela: Rodrigo Pinho comes on to take the place of Luan Patrick.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Gil Vicente after a play that resulted in a foul by Abraham Marcus.
43
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Jovane Cabral from Estrela takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a direct free kick, but it sails over the crossbar.
42
Update Update
Jovane Cabral from Estrela earns a free kick in the opponent's half.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Luís Esteves of Gil Vicente.
39
Update Update
Offside call against Estrela. Ianis Stoica has been flagged for being in an offside position.
38
Attempt Attempt
Shot attempt denied. Agustín Moreira from Gil Vicente tries a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
A shot is denied. Santi García from Gil Vicente tries a left-footed effort from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The opportunity was set up by a cross from Ghislain Konan.
35
Attempt Attempt
The shot was blocked. Murilo de Souza from Gil Vicente took a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but the goalkeeper managed to make the save.
34
Update Update
Santi García commits a foul for Gil Vicente.
34
Update Update
Bruno Langa from Estrela earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
33
Update Update
Agustín Moreira from Gil Vicente committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Jovane Cabral from Estrela earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
32
Update Update
Santi García from Gil Vicente earns a free kick on the right side of the field.
32
Update Update
Stefan Lekovic from Estrela commits a foul.
31
Update Update
Murilo de Souza from Gil Vicente earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
31
Update Update
Foul committed by Kevin Höög Jansson against Estrela.
30
Update Update
Jovane Cabral from Estrela is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
30
Update Update
Santi García from Gil Vicente commits a foul.
29
Attempt Attempt
A shot on goal has been thwarted. Jovane Cabral from Estrela directed a header from the middle of the penalty area, but Lucão from Gil Vicente made a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Ianis Stoica.
27
Update Update
Alex Sola from Estrela is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
27
Update Update
Offside call against Estrela. Ianis Stoica has been flagged for being offside.
27
Update Update
Luís Esteves from Gil Vicente commits a foul.
26
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Luís Esteves from Gil Vicente took a right-footed shot from the center of the box but couldn't find the target.
24
Update Update
Offside call against Estrela. Jovane Cabral has been flagged for being in an offside position.
22
Update Update
Offside call against Estrela. Ianis Stoica has been flagged for being in an offside position.
21
Update Update
Ianis Stoica from Estrela is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
21
Update Update
Agustín Moreira from Gil Vicente committed a foul.
18
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Gil Vicente, following a foul by Paulo Moreira.
18
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Murilo de Souza from Gil Vicente took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went wide to the right after a corner kick.
18
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Gil Vicente after Luan Patrick allowed the ball to go out of play.
17
Update Update
Paulo Moreira from Estrela commits a foul.
17
Update Update
Facundo Cáseres from Gil Vicente is awarded a free kick on the right side.
16
Update Update
Jonathan Buatu commits a foul for Gil Vicente.
16
Update Update
Jovane Cabral from Estrela earns a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Estrela 0, Gil Vicente 1. Murilo de Souza from Gil Vicente successfully scores the penalty with a shot from his left foot.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Estrela 0, Gil Vicente 1. Murilo de Souza from Gil Vicente successfully scores the penalty, striking the ball with his left foot into the bottom right corner.
12
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty awarded to Gil Vicente.
12
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
11
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Héctor Hernández from Gil Vicente.
10
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Héctor Hernández from Gil Vicente took a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box after a corner kick.
10
Update Update
Penalty awarded against Kevin Höög Jansson of Estrela for committing a foul inside the penalty box.
9
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Gil Vicente, following a deflection off Renan Ribeiro.
6
Update Update
Jovane Cabral from Estrela is awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
6
Update Update
Marvin Elimbi from Gil Vicente commits a foul.
4
Update Update
Santi García from Gil Vicente commits a foul.
4
Update Update
Alex Sola from Estrela is awarded a free kick in his team's defensive zone.
2
Update Update
Offside called against Estrela. Stefan Lekovic has been flagged for being in an offside position.
2
Update Update
Abraham Marcus from Estrela earns a free kick in the defensive zone.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Ghislain Konan of Gil Vicente.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Estrela Amadora exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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