Estoril vs Famalicão Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota Sun, 26 Apr - 2:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Estoril EPF
0 Winner 1
Famalicão FCF
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 2:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
|
Goal
Justin de Haas - 51' (P)
Ian Cathro 68' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Famalicão claimed a narrow 0-1 victory over Estoril in the Primeira Liga, overcoming the home side's possession dominance. The match was deadlocked at 0-0 at halftime, with Estoril controlling 55% of the ball against Famalicão's 45%. The second half turned decisively when Estoril suffered a red card, leaving them with ten players and distorting the game's structure. Famalicão, identified as the stronger team beforehand, capitalized on this shift to score the winner. Despite lacking xG data, the result showed a significant 46.6% structural deviation in Famalicão's favor, with efficiency in line with expectations and market alignment confirmed. Estoril's extra man advantage failed to yield goals, underscoring Famalicão's clinical edge and resilience.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Famalicão's win featured a significant 46.6% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment determination.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to absent data.
  • Event impact: Estoril red card altered second-half event dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Estoril caused clear second-half distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Fernandes Macedo

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Batista Carvalho

2nd Assistant

F. Costa Veríssimo

4th Official

A. Sousa

1st Assistant

Estoril I. Cathro
I. Cathro
VS
Famalicão H. Carvalho Oliveira
H. Carvalho Oliveira
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.59
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Moreirense Rank: L
Porto Rank: L
Arouca Rank: L
Rio Ave Rank: L
Nacional Rank: W
Casa Pia Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Braga Rank: D
Moreirense Rank: D
Porto Rank: D
Nacional Rank: W
Vitória Guimarães Rank: W
Arouca Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Estoril
22.58%
Draw
24.03%
Away Famalicão
53.39%

Movement

Changes since opening
Estoril
+22.34%
Draw
+18.38%
Famalicão
-40.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.96
28.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Estoril
Famalicão
Power Score
17.96
28.39
League Position
10
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score
Famalicão — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Estoril Famalicão

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Estoril

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Famalicão

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Estoril ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Famalicão
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.18
16.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.67
20.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Estoril +0.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Famalicão -0.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Estoril
Famalicão
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Estoril ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Famalicão
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Estoril Famalicão
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Estoril Famalicão
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Estoril
Famalicão
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Estoril
vs
Famalicão
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Estoril Famalicão
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Estoril 0.21
Famalicão 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Estoril Famalicão
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Estoril 0.03
Famalicão 0.00
Estoril
Famalicão
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • EPF had peak pressure around 90'.
  • FCF started the game with stronger pressure.
EPF Pressure FCF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: EPF reached the top pressure at 90' (75.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Estoril EPF Home
9 matches
Famalicão FCF Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
3
Goals
9
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
9
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:05:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Turk
Slovenia
16 M. Turk
F. Bacher
Austria
25 F. Bacher
A. Tsoungui
Belgium
5 A. Tsoungui
F. Reis Ferreira
Substitution
Portugal
4 F. Reis Ferreira
R. Sánchez Sendra
Spain
2 R. Sánchez Sendra
M. da Silva Rocha
Portugal
8 M. da Silva Rocha
J. Holsgrove
Scotland
10 J. Holsgrove
P. Gaspar Amaral
Substitution
Portugal
24 P. Gaspar Amaral
R. Guitane
France
99 R. Guitane
J. Antunes Carvalho
Portugal
12 J. Antunes Carvalho
Y. Begraoui
Morocco
14 Y. Begraoui
Pitch
L. Carević
Montenegro
25 L. Carević
L. Soares Alves
Portugal
5 L. Soares Alves
J. de Haas
Netherlands
16 J. de Haas
I. Ba
Senegal
55 I. Ba
R. Pinheiro Ferreira
Portugal
17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
M. De Amorim
Substitution
France
14 M. De Amorim
T. van de Looi
Netherlands
6 T. van de Looi
M. Lopes Moura
Brazil
7 M. Lopes Moura
G. Alves Freitas Azevedo Sá
Substitution
Portugal
20 G. Alves Freitas Azevedo Sá
G. Bastião Dias
Substitution
Portugal
23 G. Bastião Dias
S. Elisor
Substitution
France
12 S. Elisor

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Capacity :
8000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Renato Filipe Batista Carvalho
Carlos André Fernandes Macedo
Fábio José Costa Veríssimo
Andreia Sousa

Statistics

Possession
EPF
53%
FCF
47%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 6
42 Dangerous attacks 30
55 Possession 45
9 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 18
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
0 Injuries 2
2 Substitutions 4
4 Goal Attempts 3
14 Throwins 10
4 Goal Kicks 9
49 Ball Safe 54
5 Successful Dribbles 5
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
14 Dribble Attempts 11
14 Successful Headers 12

Attacking

1 Counter Attacks 1
56 Attacks 50
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

43 Long Passes 55
372 Successful Passes 287
24 Successful Long Passes 26
7 Key Passes 4
440 Passes 366
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
85 Successful Passes Percentage 78

Defensive

4 Saves 3
12 Tackles 15
42 Duels Won 51
6 Interceptions 5

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 19
1 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

19 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Carlos André Fernandes Macedo

Starting XI ▼

16
Martin Turk
Martin Turk Goalkeeper
6.75
4
Ferro
Ferro Defender
6.82
9
Alejandro Marqués
Alejandro Marqués
Attacker88'
6.54
5
Antef Tsoungui
Antef Tsoungui Defender
6.69
25
Felix Bacher
Felix Bacher Defender
6.78
2
Ricard Sánchez
Ricard Sánchez Midfielder
6.78
8
Xeka
Xeka Midfielder
6.63
10
Jordan Holsgrove
Jordan Holsgrove Midfielder
7.17
24
Pedro Amaral
Pedro Amaral Midfielder
6.54
20
Gonçalo Costa
Gonçalo Costa
Defender76'
6.41
12
João Carvalho
João Carvalho Attacker
7.19
14
Yanis Begraoui
Yanis Begraoui Attacker
7.07
99
Rafik Guitane
Rafik Guitane Attacker
6.83
Referee : Carlos André Fernandes Macedo

Starting XI ▼

25
Lazar Carević
Lazar Carević Goalkeeper
7.04
5
Rafa Soares
Rafa Soares Defender
6.75
16
Justin de Haas
Justin de Haas Defender
7.01
17
Rodrigo Pinheiro
Rodrigo Pinheiro Defender
6.97
55
Ibrahima Ba
Ibrahima Ba Defender
7.03
6
Tom van de Looi
Tom van de Looi Midfielder
6.91
7
Sorriso
Sorriso Midfielder
7.04
14
Mathias de Amorim
Mathias de Amorim Midfielder
6.93
8
Marcos Peña
Marcos Peña
Midfielder83'
6.66
20
Gustavo Sá
Gustavo Sá Midfielder
7
3
Léo Realpe
Léo Realpe
Defender87'
6.88
23
Gil Dias
Gil Dias Midfielder
7.05
2
Garcia
Garcia
Defender90+1'
6.65
12
Simon Elisor
Simon Elisor Attacker
6.73
9
Umar Abubakar
Umar Abubakar
Attacker87'
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Garcia → Gil Dias
6th Substitution
Event
Alejandro Marqués → Ferro
5th Substitution
88'
87'
Event
Umar Abubakar → Simon Elisor
3rd Substitution
87'
Event
Léo Realpe → Gustavo Sá
4th Substitution
83'
Event
Marcos Peña → Mathias de Amorim
2nd Substitution
Event
Gonçalo Costa → Pedro Amaral
1st Substitution
76'
Event
Ian Cathro
Argument / 1st Redcard
68'
56'
Event
Mathias de Amorim
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Justin de Haas
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
46'
Event
Tom van de Looi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Jordan Holsgrove
Goal Disallowed
18'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Antef Tsoungui of Estoril.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Antef Tsoungui of Estoril.
90
Update Update
Umar Abubakar from Famalicão wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Famalicão: Gustavo Garcia comes on for Gil Dias.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after a concession by Rafa Soares.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after a concession by Gustavo Garcia.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Estoril losing 0-1 to Famalicão.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Estoril losing 0-1 to Famalicão.
89
Update Update
Yanis Begraoui of Estoril is caught offside.
89
Update Update
Foul by Umar Abubakar of Famalicão.
89
Update Update
Felix Bacher from Estoril wins a free kick in the defensive half.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Alejandro Marqués comes on for Ferro.
88
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Begraoui from Estoril misses a right-footed shot from outside the box to the left, assisted by Antef Tsoungui.
87
Update Update
Ferro wins a free kick in the defensive half against Estoril.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Umar Abubakar of Famalicão.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Famalicão: Umar Abubakar comes on for Simon Elisor.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Famalicão: Léo Realpe comes on for Gustavo Sá.
86
Update Update
Foul by João Carvalho of Estoril.
86
Update Update
Gustavo Sá from Famalicão wins a free kick in the defensive half.
85
Update Update
Tom van de Looi from Famalicão wins a free kick in the defensive half.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Antef Tsoungui of Estoril.
84
Update Update
Rafik Guitane from Estoril wins a free kick in the attacking half.
84
Update Update
Rafik Guitane from Estoril wins a free kick in the attacking half.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Famalicão: Marcos Peña comes on for Mathias de Amorim.
82
Corner Corner
Antef Tsoungui from Estoril misses a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it close but to the right. João Carvalho assisted after a corner.
82
Corner Corner
Estoril wins a corner after Ibrahima Ba concedes.
80
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Gil Dias from Famalicão.
78
Corner Corner
Famalicão wins a corner after Antef Tsoungui concedes.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Xeka from Estoril.
77
Update Update
Mathias de Amorim from Famalicão wins a free kick on the right wing.
76
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Begraoui's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after a concession by Rodrigo Pinheiro.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Gonçalo Costa comes on for Pedro Amaral.
74
Update Update
Mathias de Amorim from Famalicão wins a free kick in the defensive half.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Yanis Begraoui of Estoril.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Felix Bacher of Estoril.
73
Update Update
Justin de Haas from Famalicão wins a free kick in the defensive half.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after Ibrahima Ba concedes.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after a concession by Mathias de Amorim.
68
Corner Corner
Estoril wins a corner after Ibrahima Ba concedes.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Antef Tsoungui of Estoril.
65
Update Update
Sorriso wins a free kick on the left wing against Famalicão.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Xeka of Estoril.
63
Update Update
Mathias de Amorim from Famalicão wins a free kick in the attacking half.
60
Update Update
The match is currently delayed due to an injury to Ibrahima Ba from Famalicão.
58
Update Update
Simon Elisor from Famalicão wins a free kick on the left wing.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Xeka of Estoril.
57
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui of Estoril wins a free kick in the defensive half.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Rafa Soares of Famalicão.
56
Update Update
Xeka from Estoril wins a free kick in the attacking half.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Mathias de Amorim of Famalicão.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mathias de Amorim from Famalicão receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
54
Update Update
Sorriso wins a free kick in their defensive half.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Felix Bacher of Estoril.
53
Attempt Attempt
João Carvalho's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Lazar Carevic, with an assist from Pedro Amaral.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Famalicão takes the lead 1-0 as Justin de Haas converts the penalty with a left-footed shot to the center of the goal.
48
Update Update
A penalty has been conceded by Ferro of Estoril after a foul in the penalty area.
48
Update Update
Famalicão is awarded a penalty after Gil Dias is fouled in the penalty area.
46
Update Update
Rafik Guitane from Estoril wins a free kick in the defensive half.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom van de Looi of Famalicão.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tom van de Looi from Famalicão receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be no added time.
45
Update Update
First half ends with the score at Estoril 0, Famalicão 0.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Estoril 0, Famalicão 0.
44
Update Update
Foul committed by Antef Tsoungui of Estoril.
44
Update Update
Simon Elisor from Famalicão wins a free kick on the left wing.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Xeka of Estoril.
43
Update Update
Mathias de Amorim from Famalicão wins a free kick in the defensive half.
43
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Begraoui's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Amaral's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Yanis Begraoui provided the assist.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Yanis Begraoui of Estoril.
39
Update Update
Rodrigo Pinheiro from Famalicão wins a free kick in the defensive half.
37
Update Update
Simon Elisor from Famalicão wins a free kick in the defensive half.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Antef Tsoungui of Estoril.
36
Update Update
Jordan Holsgrove from Estoril wins a free kick on the left wing.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom van de Looi of Famalicão.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Sorriso - Famalicão.
34
Update Update
Felix Bacher from Estoril wins a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after a concession by Justin de Haas.
31
Attempt Attempt
Gil Dias from Famalicão has his left-footed shot from the left side of the box saved in the center of the goal by Martin Turk from Estoril. The attempt was assisted by Mathias de Amorim.
30
Attempt Attempt
Xeka's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Yanis Begraoui provided the assist.
30
Corner Corner
Estoril wins a corner after Justin de Haas concedes.
27
Corner Corner
Ibrahima Ba's header from a tough angle on the left is saved in the bottom right corner by Martin Turk. The attempt was assisted by Rodrigo Pinheiro's cross.
27
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Ibrahima Ba from Famalicão.
26
Corner Corner
Famalicão wins a corner after Ferro concedes.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Pedro Amaral of Estoril.
24
Update Update
Simon Elisor from Famalicão wins a free kick in the attacking half.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Antef Tsoungui of Estoril.
21
Update Update
Ibrahima Ba from Famalicão wins a free kick in the defensive half.
20
Corner Corner
Famalicão wins a corner after Felix Bacher concedes.
17
Update Update
Yanis Begraoui of Estoril is caught offside.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Pedro Amaral of Estoril.
13
Update Update
Gustavo Sá from Famalicão wins a free kick on the right wing.
11
Update Update
Justin de Haas from Famalicão wins a free kick in the defensive half.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Ricard Sánchez of Estoril.
10
Attempt Attempt
Xeka from Estoril misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it to the right. João Carvalho provided the assist.
9
Attempt Attempt
Simon Elisor's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Sorriso, who provided a headed pass.
8
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Ricard Sánchez from Estoril has a left-footed shot from outside the box that is saved.
7
Update Update
Foul committed by Simon Elisor of Famalicão.
7
Update Update
Xeka from Estoril wins a free kick in the defensive half.
4
Update Update
Estoril is called offside as Pedro Amaral is caught in an offside position.
3
Corner Corner
Famalicão wins a corner after Martin Turk concedes.
3
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Sorriso's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the top left corner by Martin Turk. The attempt was assisted by Gustavo Sá.
2
Update Update
Rafik Guitane from Estoril wins a free kick in the defensive half.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Sorriso against Famalicão.

CONCLUSION

Famalicão's 0-1 triumph highlighted their ability to exploit Estoril's red card, securing victory as the pre-identified stronger team. Estoril held 55% possession but faltered after the dismissal, unable to convert chances. The outcome's market alignment and efficiency consistency rewarded Famalicão's discipline, with significant structural deviation amplifying the red card's role. This result bolsters Famalicão's league standing, while Estoril faces scrutiny over discipline. Absent xG data limits deeper analysis, yet the match underscored resilience and opportunism in tight contests.

Estoril vs Famalicão preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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