Empoli vs Virtus Entella Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Carlo Castellani Sun, 19 Apr - 5:30 PM

Serie B

Empoli EMP

1 – 1

Virtus Entella ENT

Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 5:30 PM

Round 35 Regular Season

Luca Magnino - 50'

Bernat Guiu - 13'

CONTEXT

Empoli and Virtus Entella played out a 1-1 draw in Serie C, with the home side holding 62% possession but suffering a red card that altered the game's flow. Virtus Entella, deemed the stronger team, took a 1-0 halftime lead before Empoli equalized in the second half. Despite Empoli's territorial advantage, the sending-off disrupted their control, leading to a balanced finish. Pre-match expectations favored Empoli heavily, yet the result marked a significant 68.4% structural deviation towards Virtus Entella. No xG data was available, leaving efficiency assessments in line with general trends. The red card distortion in the second half was a key adjustment factor, preventing a home victory and underscoring the away side's resilience.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Significant 68.4% structural deviation favored Virtus Entella.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Market did not align with the draw result.
xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from data.
Event impact: Home red card impacted second-half momentum.
Red card distortion: Red card distortion affected second-half adjustments.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

L. Marinelli

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Gilberto Laghezza

2nd Assistant

D. Garzelli

1st Assistant

P. Tremolada

4th Official

F. Caserta

A. Chiappella

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

4 - 0 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Empoli

43.78%

Draw

31.61%

Virtus Entella

24.61%

Movement

Changes since opening

Empoli

+39.34%

Draw

-60.73%

Virtus Entella

+21.39%

Team Power Ranking

17.08

21.42

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Empoli

Virtus Entella

Power Score

17.08

21.42

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score

Virtus Entella — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Empoli Virtus Entella

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Empoli

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Virtus Entella

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Empoli ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

28.55

28.82

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

28.82

28.55

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Empoli -0.03 Efficiency Index

Virtus Entella +0.03 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Empoli

Virtus Entella

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Empoli ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Virtus Entella

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Empoli Virtus Entella

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Empoli Virtus Entella

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Empoli

Virtus Entella

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Empoli

Virtus Entella

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Empoli Virtus Entella

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Empoli Virtus Entella

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Empoli

Virtus Entella

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

ENT had peak pressure around 19'.
ENT started the game with stronger pressure.

EMP Pressure ENT Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: ENT reached the top pressure at 19' (98.57).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Empoli EMP Home

7 matches

Virtus Entella ENT Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:06:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-2-2

Match Formation 5-3-2

21 A. Fulignati

24 T. Ebuehi

34 G. Guarino

20 M. Lovato

27 B. Moruzzi

14 G. Yepes Laut

32 N. Haas

8 L. Magnino

7 S. Elia

11 S. Shpendi

17 D. Fila

22 F. Del Frate

26 S. Di Mario

15 I. Marconi

6 A. Tiritiello

23 L. Parodi

94 F. Mezzoni

8 N. Karic

32 L. Benedetti

24 A. Franzoni

11 B. Guiu Vilanova

10 L. Cuppone

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 19, 2026, 05:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Carlo Castellani

Capacity :

16284

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Livio Marinelli

Gilberto Laghezza

Dario Garzelli

Paride Tremolada

Statistics

Possession

EMP

58%

ENT

42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 1

6 Shots 5

54 Dangerous attacks 39

62 Possession 38

6 Corners 5

13 Free kicks 11

1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

8 Goal Attempts 6

31 Throwins 22

64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63

7 Goal Kicks 9

11 Dribble Attempts 16

1 Assists 1

89 Ball Safe 97

7 Successful Dribbles 10

5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

107 Attacks 88

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 67

334 Successful Passes 176

38 Successful Long Passes 19

77 Long Passes 54

49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

427 Passes 262

10 Key Passes 7

Defensive

10 Tackles 8

4 Interceptions 9

1 Saves 1

46 Duels Won 53

Build-up

35 Total Crosses 19

6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 13

3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Livio Marinelli

Manager ▼

F. Caserta Coach

Starting XI ▼

Andrea Fulignati Goalkeeper

6.77

Matteo Lovato Defender

6.8

Tyronne Ebuehi Defender

6.56

Brando Moruzzi Defender

6.79

Antonio Candela

Defender54'

6.6

Gabriele Guarino Defender

6.92

Salvatore Elia Midfielder

7.01

Joseph Ceesay

Defender74'

6.53

Luca Magnino Midfielder

6.66

Gerard Yepes Midfielder

6.74

Andrea Ghion

Midfielder74'

6.9

Nicolas Haas Midfielder

6.55

Stiven Shpendi Attacker

6.9

Flavio Bianchi

Attacker84'

6.47

Daniel Fila Attacker

6.67

Marco Nasti

Attacker46'

6.73

Substitutes ▼

Marco Nasti

Attacker46'

6.73

Antonio Candela

Defender54'

6.6

Andrea Ghion

Midfielder74'

6.9

Joseph Ceesay

Defender74'

6.53

Flavio Bianchi

Attacker84'

6.47

Bench ▼

Samuele Perisan Goalkeeper

Marco Curto Defender

6.7

Simone Romagnoli Defender

Duccio Degli Innocenti Midfielder

6.83

Rareș Ilie Midfielder

6.66

Lorenzo Ignacchiti Midfielder

6.71

Edoardo Saporiti Midfielder

6.98

Referee : Livio Marinelli