Empoli vs Avellino Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Carlo Castellani Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Empoli EMP
1 Winner 0
Avellino AVE
Full Time Fri, 1 May 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Matteo Lovato - 58'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Alessandro Fontanarosa 90+7'

CONTEXT

Empoli clinched a hard-fought 1-0 home win against Avellino in a Serie B encounter defined by discipline and opportunism. The first half ended 0-0, with Avellino controlling 58% possession yet unable to breach Empoli's stout defense. Empoli, holding just 42% of the ball, absorbed pressure effectively as the designated stronger team. The game's pivot arrived post-halftime when Avellino suffered a red card, tilting numerical balance. Empoli capitalized swiftly, netting the lone goal amid heightened second-half intensity. Without xG metrics, analysis leans on possession disparity and event influence, revealing Empoli's superior conversion despite territorial disadvantage. This outcome reflected minimal structural shifts, affirming Empoli's tactical edge and Avellino's self-inflicted setback.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Empoli's win featured minimal structural deviation of 6.6%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies aligned in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: Avellino's red card decisively altered second-half flow.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Avellino introduced significant game distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. La Penna

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Barone

1st Assistant

F. Luciani

2nd Assistant

D. Di Marco

4th Official

Empoli F. Caserta
F. Caserta
VS
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 D
Calcio Padova Rank: 47 L
Sampdoria Rank: 53 L
Pescara Rank: 48 W
Spezia Rank: 51 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Mantova Rank: 53 W
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Palermo Rank: 65 L
Sampdoria Rank: 53 L
Südtirol Rank: 51 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Empoli
93.37%
Draw
6.41%
Away Avellino
0.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.14
50.89
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Empoli
Avellino
Power Score
52.14
50.89
League Position
14
10
Global Rank
651
696

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Empoli Avellino

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Empoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Empoli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.36
10.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
10.95
45.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Empoli +3.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Avellino -3.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Empoli
Avellino
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Empoli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Avellino
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Empoli Avellino
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Empoli Avellino
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Empoli
Avellino
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Empoli
vs
Avellino
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Empoli Avellino
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Empoli 0.41
Avellino 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Empoli Avellino
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Empoli 0.00
Avellino 0.02
Empoli
Avellino
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • EMP had peak pressure around 15'.
  • EMP started the game with stronger pressure.
EMP Pressure AVE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: EMP reached the top pressure at 15' (78.33).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Empoli EMP Home
7 matches
Avellino AVE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
8
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:02:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
A. Fulignati
Italy
21 A. Fulignati
G. Guarino
Italy
34 G. Guarino
S. Romagnoli
Italy
4 S. Romagnoli
M. Lovato
Italy
20 M. Lovato
A. Candela
Italy
26 A. Candela
L. Magnino
Italy
8 L. Magnino
G. Yepes Laut
Substitution
Spain
14 G. Yepes Laut
N. Haas
Substitution
Switzerland
32 N. Haas
J. Ceesay
Substitution
Sweden
15 J. Ceesay
M. Nasti
Substitution
Italy
19 M. Nasti
S. Shpendi
Substitution
Albania
11 S. Shpendi
Pitch
G. Daffara
Italy
30 G. Daffara
A. Fontanarosa
Italy
63 A. Fontanarosa
A. Izzo
Italy
4 A. Izzo
P. Enrici
Italy
56 P. Enrici
T. Cancellotti
Substitution
Italy
29 T. Cancellotti
M. Besaggio
Substitution
Italy
39 M. Besaggio
L. Palmiero
Italy
6 L. Palmiero
D. Sounas
Substitution
Greece
24 D. Sounas
M. Palumbo
Norway
20 M. Palumbo
T. Biasci
Substitution
Italy
14 T. Biasci
C. Patierno
Substitution
Italy
9 C. Patierno

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Carlo Castellani
Capacity :
16284
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Claudio Barone
Francesco Luciani
Davide Di Marco
Federico La Penna

Statistics

Possession
EMP
47%
AVE
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 4
41 Dangerous attacks 27
42 Possession 58
4 Corners 2
21 Free kicks 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

19 Throwins 22
6 Goal Kicks 7
65 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
17 Dribble Attempts 15
11 Successful Dribbles 8
5 Substitutions 5
12 Goal Attempts 5
58 Ball Safe 70
2 Injuries 0
1 Assists 0
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

84 Attacks 60
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

51 Long Passes 73
20 Successful Long Passes 27
213 Successful Passes 321
303 Passes 419
70 Successful Passes Percentage 77
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
10 Key Passes 4

Defensive

2 Saves 7
12 Tackles 16
11 Interceptions 12
68 Duels Won 62

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 14
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

21 Fouls 22
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

21
Andrea Fulignati
Andrea Fulignati Goalkeeper
6.77
4
Simone Romagnoli
Simone Romagnoli Defender
6.21
20
Matteo Lovato
Matteo Lovato Defender
6.8
34
Gabriele Guarino
Gabriele Guarino Defender
6.93
8
Luca Magnino
Luca Magnino Midfielder
6.69
14
Gerard Yepes
Gerard Yepes Midfielder
6.75
18
Andrea Ghion
Andrea Ghion
Midfielder84'
6.89
15
Joseph Ceesay
Joseph Ceesay Midfielder
6.53
7
Salvatore Elia
Salvatore Elia
Midfielder69'
6.97
26
Antonio Candela
Antonio Candela Midfielder
6.6
32
Nicolas Haas
Nicolas Haas Midfielder
6.56
6
Duccio Degli Innocenti
Duccio Degli Innocenti
Midfielder69'
6.81
11
Stiven Shpendi
Stiven Shpendi Attacker
6.88
99
Flavio Bianchi
Flavio Bianchi
Attacker84'
6.46
19
Marco Nasti
Marco Nasti Attacker
6.71
77
Bogdan Popov
Bogdan Popov
Attacker54'
6.75
Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

30
Giovanni Daffara
Giovanni Daffara Goalkeeper
6.8
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Defender
7.17
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Defender
6.68
2
Filippo Missori
Filippo Missori
Defender65'
6.81
56
Patrick Enrici
Patrick Enrici Defender
6.7
63
Alessandro Fontanarosa
Alessandro Fontanarosa Defender
6.79
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Midfielder
6.83
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Midfielder
6.87
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder
6.96
94
Roberto Insigne
Roberto Insigne
Attacker65'
6.83
39
Michele Besaggio
Michele Besaggio Midfielder
6.79
8
Luca Pandolfi
Luca Pandolfi
Attacker73'
6.51
9
Cosimo Patierno
Cosimo Patierno Attacker
6.61
27
Andréa Le Borgne
Andréa Le Borgne
Midfielder83'
6.38
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci Attacker
6.94
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo
Attacker46'
6.83

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Alessandro Fontanarosa
Argument / 1st Redcard
Event
Flavio Bianchi → Stiven Shpendi
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Andrea Ghion → Gerard Yepes
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Gerard Yepes
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
83'
83'
Event
Andréa Le Borgne → Cosimo Patierno
8th Substitution
Event
Salvatore Elia
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
73'
Event
Luca Pandolfi → Michele Besaggio
7th Substitution
Event
Stiven Shpendi
GoalkeeperSave
72'
Event
Salvatore Elia → Joseph Ceesay
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Duccio Degli Innocenti → Nicolas Haas
6th Substitution
69'
65'
Event
Roberto Insigne → Dimitrios Sounas
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Filippo Missori → Tommaso Cancellotti
4th Substitution
Event
Matteo Lovato
Header / 1st Goal
58'
57'
Event
Dimitrios Sounas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Bogdan Popov → Marco Nasti
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Nicolas Haas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
46'
Event
Raffaele Russo → Tommaso Biasci
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Duccio Degli Innocenti takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Update Update
Andrea Ghion replaces Gerard Yepes.
84
Update Update
Flavio Bianchi comes on for Steven Shpendi.
83
Update Update
Andrea Le Borgne comes on for Cosimo Patierno.
82
Attempt Attempt
Luca Pandolfi takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Salvatore Elia receives a yellow card.
76
Attempt Attempt
Steven Shpendi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Luca Pandolfi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Update Update
Luca Pandolfi comes on for Michele Besaggio.
72
Attempt Attempt
Steven Shpendi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Update Update
Salvatore Elia is on, and Joseph Ceesay is off.
69
Update Update
Duccio Degli Innocenti comes on for Nicolas Haas.
65
Update Update
Roberto Insigne comes on for Dimitrios Sounas.
65
Update Update
Filippo Missori replaces Tommaso Cancellotti.
64
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Haas takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Bogdan Popov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Update Update
Matteo Lovato scores with a header.
58
Update Update
Goal! Matteo Lovato scores to make it 1-0.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dimitrios Sounas receives a yellow card.
56
Attempt Attempt
Raffaele Russo's right-footed shot is saved.
54
Update Update
Bogdan Popov comes on for Marco Nasti.
52
Update Update
Marco Nasti attempts a header but misses the target.
46
Update Update
Raffaele Russo comes on for Tommaso Biasci.
38
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Fontanarosa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Haas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Simone Romagnoli's header is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Steven Shpendi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Michele Besaggio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Ceesay takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Yepes has a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Guarino takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Simone Romagnoli's right-footed shot is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Yepes takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Luca Magnino's left-footed shot is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Yepes takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Empoli's 1-0 victory over Avellino exemplified composure under pressure, transforming Avellino's red card into a game-changer despite ceding possession dominance. As the stronger outfit, Empoli's clinical response secured vital points, with the halftime deadlock giving way to second-half control. Minimal deviation and market consistency underscore a foreseeable result, highlighting Empoli's defensive solidity and finishing prowess. Avellino's numerical lapse exposed vulnerabilities, potentially costing dearly in the standings race. This performance bolsters Empoli's promotion credentials while serving as a cautionary tale on discipline for rivals.

Empoli vs Avellino preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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