Elche vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero Sat, 9 May - 12:00 PM
La Liga
Elche ELC
1 – 1
Deportivo Alavés ALA
Full Time Sat, 9 May 12:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Álvaro Rodríguez - 72'
Goal
|
Goal
Toni Martínez - 51' (P)

CONTEXT

Elche hosted Deportivo Alavés in a tightly contested La Liga encounter that ended in a 1-1 draw, with both goals arriving after a goalless first half. Despite Elche's commanding 65% possession, Alavés demonstrated resilience, holding firm against sustained pressure. The home side created numerous chances but struggled to convert, while Alavés capitalized efficiently on their counter-attacks to secure a point. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Alavés defied expectations by avoiding defeat, showcasing defensive solidity and opportunistic play. Elche's dominance in territory failed to translate into victory, highlighting Alavés' tactical discipline. No red cards disrupted the flow, and the second half saw both teams adjust without major shifts. This result underscores Alavés' ability to punch above their perceived weight, earning a valuable share of the spoils away from home.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match exhibited a significant 70.5% structural deviation favoring Deportivo Alavés.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data was unavailable, so alignment with expected goals could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unevaluated due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events notably influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Busquets Ferrer

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Prieto López de Ceraín

1st Assistant

Spain

J. Campos Salinas

4th Official

Spain

G. García González

2nd Assistant

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.51
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.29
Elche E. Sarabia Armesto
E. Sarabia Armesto
VS
Deportivo Alavés E. Sánchez Flores
E. Sánchez Flores
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celta de Vigo Rank: 79 L
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 W
Valencia Rank: 77 W
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 79 L
Mallorca Rank: 77 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletic Club Rank: 77 L
Mallorca Rank: 76 W
Real Madrid Rank: 92 L
Real Sociedad Rank: 80 D
Osasuna Rank: 78 D
Celta de Vigo Rank: 81 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Elche
41.92%
Draw
29.48%
Away Deportivo Alavés
28.6%

Movement

Changes since opening
Elche
+37.01%
Draw
-62.02%
Deportivo Alavés
+25.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.45
75.94
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Elche
Deportivo Alavés
Power Score
62.45
75.94
League Position
13
18
Global Rank
125
103

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Elche — Opponent-weighted form score
Deportivo Alavés — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Elche Deportivo Alavés

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Elche

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Deportivo Alavés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Elche ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Deportivo Alavés
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.77
41.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.43
28.77
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Elche -1.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Deportivo Alavés +1.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Elche
Deportivo Alavés
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Elche ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Deportivo Alavés
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Elche Deportivo Alavés
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Elche Deportivo Alavés
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Elche
Deportivo Alavés
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Elche
vs
Deportivo Alavés
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Elche Deportivo Alavés
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Elche 0.30
Deportivo Alavés 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Elche Deportivo Alavés
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Elche 0.02
Deportivo Alavés 0.02
Elche
Deportivo Alavés
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ELC had peak pressure around 86'.
  • ALA started the game with stronger pressure.
ELC Pressure ALA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ELC reached the top pressure at 86' (96.02).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Elche ELC Home
14 matches
Deportivo Alavés ALA Away
Match Record
6
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
6
Goals
16
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
16
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:01:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
M. Dituro
Argentina
1 M. Dituro
V. Chust García
Substitution
Spain
23 V. Chust García
D. Affengruber
Austria
22 D. Affengruber
P. Bigas Rigo
Spain
6 P. Bigas Rigo
J. Morente Oliva
Substitution
Spain
15 J. Morente Oliva
G. Villar del Fraile
Spain
12 G. Villar del Fraile
M. Aguado Pallares
Substitution
Spain
8 M. Aguado Pallares
A. Febas Pérez
Substitution
Spain
14 A. Febas Pérez
G. Karabinaite
Substitution
Spain
11 G. Karabinaite
?. Rodríguez Muñoz
Uruguay
20 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
A. Valente Silva
Portugal
9 A. Valente Silva
Pitch
A. Sivera Salvá
Spain
1 A. Sivera Salvá
A. Rebbach
Substitution
Algeria
21 A. Rebbach
V. Parada González
Spain
24 V. Parada González
N. Tenaglia
Argentina
14 N. Tenaglia
J. Castro Otto
Spain
17 J. Castro Otto
A. Pérez Hidalgo
Spain
7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
J. Guridi Aldalur
Substitution
Spain
18 J. Guridi Aldalur
A. Blanco Conde
Spain
8 A. Blanco Conde
P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
Substitution
Spain
19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
I. Diabate
Substitution
Ivory Coast
22 I. Diabate
A. Martínez López
Substitution
Spain
11 A. Martínez López

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Capacity :
31388
Attendance :
22936
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Iñigo Prieto López de Ceraín
Juan Antonio Campos Salinas
Gonzalo García González
Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Statistics

Possession
ELC
59%
ALA
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 4
14 Shots 11
54 Dangerous attacks 50
65 Possession 35
7 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 6

Match Overview

97 Ball Safe 96
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 39
19 Successful Headers 19
8 Goal Kicks 11
15 Throwins 21
7 Successful Dribbles 7
12 Goal Attempts 8
14 Dribble Attempts 18
1 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 4
0 Penalties 1
0 Hit Woodwork 2
0 Injuries 3

Attacking

113 Attacks 68
3 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 75
465 Passes 251
13 Key Passes 9
23 Successful Long Passes 29
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
405 Successful Passes 188
43 Long Passes 56

Defensive

63 Duels Won 59
24 Tackles 18
5 Interceptions 3
3 Saves 4

Build-up

9 Accurate Crosses 3
31 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Starting XI ▼

1
Matías Dituro
Matías Dituro Goalkeeper
6
Pedro Bigas
Pedro Bigas Defender
22
David Affengruber
David Affengruber Defender
23
Víctor Chust
Víctor Chust Defender
42
Buba Sangaré
Buba Sangaré
Defender85'
8
Marc Aguado
Marc Aguado Midfielder
18
John Donald
John Donald
Defender85'
11
Germán Valera
Germán Valera Midfielder
39
Héctor Fort
Héctor Fort
Defender89'
12
Gonzalo Villar
Gonzalo Villar Midfielder
14
Aleix Febas
Aleix Febas Midfielder
19
Grady Diangana
Grady Diangana
Attacker67'
15
Tete Morente
Tete Morente Midfielder
17
Josan
Josan
Midfielder67'
9
André Silva
André Silva Attacker
20
Álvaro Rodríguez
Álvaro Rodríguez Attacker
Referee : Mateo Busquets Ferrer

Starting XI ▼

1
Antonio Sivera
Antonio Sivera Goalkeeper
7
Ángel Pérez
Ángel Pérez Defender
14
Nahuel Tenaglia
Nahuel Tenaglia Defender
17
Jonny Otto
Jonny Otto Defender
21
Abde Rebbach
Abde Rebbach Defender
34
Aitor Mañas
Aitor Mañas
Attacker90'
24
Victor Parada
Victor Parada Defender
8
Antonio Blanco
Antonio Blanco Midfielder
18
Jon Guridi
Jon Guridi Midfielder
6
Ander Guevara
Ander Guevara
Midfielder82'
19
Pablo Ibáñez
Pablo Ibáñez Midfielder
4
Denis Suárez
Denis Suárez
Midfielder46'
11
Toni Martínez
Toni Martínez Attacker
3
Youssef Enríquez
Youssef Enríquez
Defender67'
22
Ibrahim Diabaté
Ibrahim Diabaté Attacker
23
Carlos Protesoni
Carlos Protesoni
Midfielder82'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Grady Diangana
Review
90+6'
Event
John Donald
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
90+5'
90'
Event
Aitor Mañas → Abde Rebbach
10th Substitution
Event
Héctor Fort → Germán Valera
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Grady Diangana
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
88'
88'
Event
Abde Rebbach
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
Event
John Donald → Marc Aguado
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Buba Sangaré → Víctor Chust
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Eder Sarabia
Argument / 11th Yellowcard
82'
82'
Event
Ander Guevara → Jon Guridi
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Carlos Protesoni → Ibrahim Diabaté
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Antonio Sivera
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Álvaro Rodríguez
Header / 1st Goal
72'
69'
Event
Ibrahim Diabaté
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Eder Sarabia Armesto
10th Yellowcard
Event
Josan → Tete Morente
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Grady Diangana → Aleix Febas
2nd Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Youssef Enríquez → Toni Martínez
3rd Substitution
Event
Germán Valera
Review
51'
51'
Event
Toni Martínez
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Aleix Febas
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
50'
46'
Event
Denis Suárez → Pablo Ibáñez
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Jonny Otto
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
29'
Event
Antonio Blanco
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
12'
Event
Pablo Ibáñez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

48
Update Update
André Silva from Elche won a free kick in the attacking area.
47
Update Update
Gonzalo Villar from Elche committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Denis Suárez from Alaves won a free kick in defense.
46
Update Update
Abde Rebbach from Alaves won a free kick in defense.
46
Update Update
Tete Morente from Elche commits a foul.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: Denis Suárez replaces Pablo Ibáñez.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ángel Pérez's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Antonio Blanco.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Corner Corner
Alaves win a corner after David Affengruber concedes.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score at Elche 0, Alaves 0.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the match at 0-0 between Elche and Alaves.
43
Update Update
Pablo Ibáñez from Alaves won a free kick in defense.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Aleix Febas of Elche.
42
Attempt Attempt
Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just to the left. The assist came from Victor Chust with a cross.
41
Update Update
Antonio Blanco from Alaves committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Gonzalo Villar from Elche won a free kick on the right wing.
37
Corner Corner
Elche wins a corner after Victor Parada concedes.
36
Attempt Attempt
Aleix Febas of Elche has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's blocked. The assist came from Álvaro Rodríguez.
33
Update Update
Jonny fouls a player from Alaves.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jonny from Alaves receives a yellow card for a foul.
33
Update Update
Aleix Febas from Elche won a free kick on the left wing.
30
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Álvaro Rodríguez from Elche heads the ball from close range, but Antonio Sivera from Alaves saves it in the top center of the goal. The assist came from David Affengruber, who also headed the ball.
29
Update Update
Antonio Blanco from Alaves committed a foul.
29
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antonio Blanco of Alaves receives a yellow card for a foul.
29
Update Update
Gonzalo Villar from Elche won a free kick in an attacking position.
27
Attempt Attempt
Victor Parada from Alaves had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but it went high and wide to the left. The assist came from Antonio Blanco.
26
Attempt Attempt
Toni Martínez's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Ángel Pérez provided the assist.
24
Update Update
Nahuel Tenaglia of Alaves won a free kick in defense.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Ángel Pérez of Alaves.
24
Update Update
Aleix Febas from Elche won a free kick in defense.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Aleix Febas of Elche.
23
Attempt Attempt
André Silva's shot from outside the box is blocked. Álvaro Rodríguez provided the assist.
23
Update Update
Pablo Ibáñez from Alaves won a free kick in defense.
20
Update Update
Marc Aguado from Elche commits a foul.
20
Update Update
Jon Guridi from Alaves won a free kick in defense.
19
Corner Corner
Elche wins a corner after Jonny concedes.
19
Attempt Attempt
André Silva's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Gonzalo Villar provided the assist.
18
Update Update
Gonzalo Villar fouled a player from Elche.
18
Update Update
Antonio Blanco of Alaves won a free kick in an attacking position.
17
Corner Corner
Elche wins a corner after Jonny concedes.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Toni Martínez of Alaves.
15
Update Update
Pedro Bigas from Elche won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Toni Martínez from Alaves won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Pedro Bigas of Elche.
13
Update Update
Jon Guridi from Alaves committed a foul.
13
Update Update
Aleix Febas from Elche won a free kick in defense.
12
Update Update
Pablo Ibáñez from Alaves won a free kick in defense.
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pablo Ibáñez from Alaves receives a yellow card for a foul.
12
Update Update
Tete Morente from Elche committed a foul.
11
Corner Corner
Alaves win a corner after Victor Chust concedes.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Pedro Bigas of Elche.
10
Update Update
Toni Martínez from Alaves won a free kick on the right wing.
9
Attempt Attempt
André Silva from Elche had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, but it went just to the left. Álvaro Rodríguez provided the assist.
7
Update Update
Ibrahim Diabate of Alaves is caught offside.
6
Corner Corner
Jon Guridi from Alaves had a missed chance, heading the ball from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went high and wide to the left. The assist came from Abde Rebbach, who delivered a cross after a corner.
5
Corner Corner
Alaves wins a corner after Germán Valera concedes.
4
Update Update
Nahuel Tenaglia from Alaves won a free kick in defense.
4
Update Update
André Silva fouled a player from Elche.
1
Update Update
Germán Valera from Elche won a free kick on the left wing.
1
Update Update
Antonio Blanco from Alaves committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

In a match where Elche held the ball for 65% of the time yet could only muster a 1-1 draw, Deportivo Alavés proved their pre-designated strength by grinding out a deserved point. The visitors' efficiency in limited possession contrasted sharply with the hosts' wastefulness, leading to a significant deviation from anticipated outcomes. Without xG metrics or disruptive events like red cards, the result hinged on Alavés' defensive resolve and clinical finishing. This stalemate boosts Alavés' survival hopes while exposing Elche's conversion issues, setting up intriguing future fixtures for both sides.

Elche vs Deportivo Alavés preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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