Dynamo Makhachkala vs Rostov Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Anzhi-Arena Sat, 2 May - 11:00 AM
Premier League
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala
1 Winner 2
Rostov FCR
Full Time Sat, 2 May 11:00 AM
Round 28 Regular Season
Gamid Agalarov - 60' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Ronaldo - 76'
Jan Dapo - 28' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

In a compelling Russian Premier League encounter at Dynamo Stadium, Dynamo Makhachkala faced Rostov, ultimately falling 1-2 despite controlling 56% possession. The hosts started sluggishly, trailing 0-1 at halftime after Rostov capitalized on their opportunities. Dynamo pushed forward in the second half, equalizing momentarily, but Rostov responded swiftly to secure the victory. The away side, considered the stronger team pre-match, demonstrated clinical finishing against Dynamo's defensive resilience. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing both teams to maintain their strategies throughout. Dynamo's higher possession failed to translate into sustained pressure, highlighting Rostov's efficiency in transitions. This result marks a significant structural deviation, with Rostov outperforming expectations by 100%. The match showcased tactical discipline from the winners, who absorbed pressure and struck decisively. Dynamo's inability to convert dominance into goals proved costly, extending their challenges in front of goal. Rostov's road win reinforces their competitive edge in the league standings.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rostov recorded a significant 100% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: Unable to evaluate xG expectations due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No notable second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

V. Kazartsev

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Galimov

4th Official

A. Vereteshkin

2nd Assistant

K. Bolshakov

1st Assistant

Dynamo Makhachkala V. Evseev
V. Evseev
VS
Rostov J. Alba Cabello
J. Alba Cabello
0.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: 77 L
Akron Rank: 54 D
Zenit Rank: 80 L
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 70 D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 65 D
CSKA Moskva Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Orenburg Rank: 53 L
CSKA Moskva Rank: 70 D
Sochi Rank: 48 L
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 52 W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 3 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dynamo Makhachkala
0%
Draw
0%
Away Rostov
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.39
60.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dynamo Makhachkala
Rostov
Power Score
56.39
60.16
League Position
14
10
Global Rank
606
472

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala — Opponent-weighted form score
Rostov — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dynamo Makhachkala Rostov

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dynamo Makhachkala

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rostov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dynamo Makhachkala ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rostov
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.45
13.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.64
20.45
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dynamo Makhachkala +0.78 Efficiency Index
vs
Rostov -0.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Makhachkala
Rostov
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dynamo Makhachkala ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rostov
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dynamo Makhachkala Rostov
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dynamo Makhachkala Rostov
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Makhachkala
Rostov
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dynamo Makhachkala
vs
Rostov
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dynamo Makhachkala Rostov
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.18
Rostov 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dynamo Makhachkala Rostov
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.05
Rostov 0.02
Dynamo Makhachkala
Rostov
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FCR had peak pressure around 29'.
  • Dynamo Makhachkala started the game with stronger pressure.
Dynamo Makhachkala Pressure FCR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FCR reached the top pressure at 29' (75.79).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala Home
3 matches
Rostov FCR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:01:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
D. Volk
Russia
27 D. Volk
M. Azzi
Algeria
22 M. Azzi
M. Alibekov
Russia
99 M. Alibekov
A. Alarcón Mendoza
Colombia
24 A. Alarcón Mendoza
J. Đapo
Substitution
Slovenia
71 J. Đapo
H. Eddine Mrezigue
Algeria
16 H. Eddine Mrezigue
E. Moubarik
Substitution
Morocco
6 E. Moubarik
N. Glushkov
Russia
47 N. Glushkov
M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
Substitution
Iran
10 M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
T. Sundukov
Substitution
Russia
77 T. Sundukov
H. Mastouri
Tunisia
7 H. Mastouri
Pitch
R. Yatimov
Tajikistan
1 R. Yatimov
O. Sako
Ivory Coast
3 O. Sako
D. Chistyakov
Russia
78 D. Chistyakov
V. Melekhin
Russia
4 V. Melekhin
A. Mironov
Russia
8 A. Mironov
I. Vakhaniya
Substitution
Russia
40 I. Vakhaniya
K. Shchetinin
Substitution
Russia
10 K. Shchetinin
I. Komarov
Substitution
Russia
62 I. Komarov
R. Soares dos Santos
Brazil
7 R. Soares dos Santos
M. Mohebi
Substitution
Iran
9 M. Mohebi
T. Suleymanov
Russia
99 T. Suleymanov

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Anzhi-Arena
Capacity :
28000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Vasili Kazartsev
Evgeni Galimov
Andrey Vereteshkin
Kirill Bolshakov

Statistics

Possession
Dynamo Makhachkala
54%
FCR
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 4
49 Dangerous attacks 40
56 Possession 44
3 Corners 1
19 Free kicks 23
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

2 Injuries 2
74 Ball Safe 69
0 Assists 1
18 Dribble Attempts 7
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
37 Throwins 26
24 Successful Headers 25
9 Goal Kicks 10
4 Substitutions 4
3 Goal Attempts 3
9 Successful Dribbles 3
2 Penalties 0

Attacking

80 Attacks 75

Possession

243 Successful Passes 159
67 Successful Passes Percentage 57
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
75 Long Passes 75
29 Successful Long Passes 22
361 Passes 281

Defensive

0 Saves 1
8 Tackles 32
62 Duels Won 74
5 Interceptions 17

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 3
18 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

6 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 22

Lineup

Referee : Vasili Kazartsev

Starting XI ▼

27
David Volk
David Volk Goalkeeper
6.73
22
Mohamed Azzi
Mohamed Azzi Defender
6.78
24
Andrés Alarcón
Andrés Alarcón Defender
6.6
71
Jan Dapo
Jan Dapo Defender
6.48
25
Gamid Agalarov
Gamid Agalarov
Attacker46'
6.72
99
Mutalip Alibekov
Mutalip Alibekov Defender
6.82
6
Mehdi Moubarik
Mehdi Moubarik Midfielder
6.8
13
Soslan Kagermazov
Soslan Kagermazov
Defender90'
6.63
10
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad Midfielder
6.87
9
Razhab Magomedov
Razhab Magomedov
Midfielder46'
6.45
16
Houssem Mrezigue
Houssem Mrezigue Midfielder
6.95
47
Nikita Glushkov
Nikita Glushkov Midfielder
6.68
77
Temirkan Sundukov
Temirkan Sundukov Midfielder
6.61
70
Abdulla Ashurov
Abdulla Ashurov
Midfielder90'
6.52
7
Hazem Mastouri
Hazem Mastouri Attacker
6.8
Referee : Vasili Kazartsev

Starting XI ▼

1
Rustam Yatimov
Rustam Yatimov Goalkeeper
6.68
3
Oumar Sako
Oumar Sako Defender
6.69
4
Viktor Melekhin
Viktor Melekhin Defender
6.76
78
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Dmitriy Chistyakov Defender
6.97
7
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Midfielder
6.83
8
Aleksey Mironov
Aleksey Mironov Midfielder
7.11
10
Kirill Shchetinin
Kirill Shchetinin Midfielder
6.94
5
Danila Prokhin
Danila Prokhin
Defender70'
6.63
40
Ilya Vakhania
Ilya Vakhania Midfielder
6.75
87
Andrey Langovich
Andrey Langovich
Defender81'
6.55
62
Ivan Komarov
Ivan Komarov Midfielder
6.63
69
Egor Golenkov
Egor Golenkov
Attacker63'
6.86
9
Mohammad Mohebi
Mohammad Mohebi Attacker
6.8
67
German Ignatov
German Ignatov
Defender81'
6.47
99
Timur Suleymanov
Timur Suleymanov Attacker
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Danila Prokhin
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Rustam Yatimov
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Timur Suleymanov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Abdulla Ashurov → Temirkan Sundukov
7th Substitution
90'
Event
Soslan Kagermazov → Mehdi Moubarik
8th Substitution
90'
81'
Event
German Ignatov → Mohammad Mohebi
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Andrey Langovich → Ilya Vakhania
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Ronaldo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
74'
Event
Viktor Melekhin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Danila Prokhin → Kirill Shchetinin
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Egor Golenkov → Ivan Komarov
3rd Substitution
Event
Gamid Agalarov
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
60'
Event
Razhab Magomedov
Penalty awarded
58'
Event
Gamid Agalarov → Jan Dapo
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Razhab Magomedov → Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Jan Dapo
Header / 1st Own Goal
Event
Hazem Mastouri
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
22'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Abdulla Ashurov comes on for Temirkan Sundukov.
90
Update Update
Soslan Kagermazov comes on for El Mehdi Moubarik.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hazem Mastouri takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rustam Yatimov receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hazem Mastouri takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Substitution Substitution
Andrey Langovich is substituted for Ilya Vakhania.
80
Attempt Attempt
Hazem Mastouri attempts a header but misses the shot.
76
Attempt Attempt
Ronaldo Cesar Soares dos Santos takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Viktor Melekhin receives a yellow card.
70
Update Update
Danila Prokhin is on, and Kirill Shchetinin is off.
63
Update Update
Egor Golenkov comes on for Ivan Komarov.
60
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Gamid Agalarov scores, making it 1-1.
58
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty awarded to Razhab Magomedov.
56
Attempt Attempt
Houssem Mrezigue takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Razhab Magomedov's right-footed shot is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Hazem Mastouri's right-footed shot is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Nikita Glushkov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Attempt Attempt
Ronaldo Cesar Soares dos Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Gamid Agalarov comes on for Jan Dapo.
46
Update Update
Razhab Magomedov comes on for Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad.
41
Attempt Attempt
Andres Alarcon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
El Mehdi Moubarik takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Alexey Mironov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Update Update
Own goal by Jan Dapo gives the opposing team a 1-0 lead.
25
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Melekhin takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hazem Mastouri receives a yellow card.

CONCLUSION

Rostov's 2-1 triumph over Dynamo Makhachkala underscores their superior execution on the road, converting limited possession into maximum impact. Despite Dynamo's 56% ball control and halftime deficit of 0-1, the visitors' precision exposed the hosts' finishing woes. This victory aligns with Rostov's status as the stronger outfit, delivering a significant deviation that boosts their momentum. Dynamo must address conversion issues to climb the table, as possession alone proved insufficient. Rostov's tactical poise, absent any red card interruptions, positions them favorably for upcoming fixtures. The result reflects balanced efficiencies and market consistency, setting a positive tone for Rostov's campaign.

Dynamo Makhachkala vs Rostov preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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