Dynamo Makhachkala vs Orenburg Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Anzhi-Arena Fri, 13 Mar - 4:30 PM
Premier League Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala 
1 
0
0
Orenburg Orenburg Full Time Fri, 13 Mar 4:30 PM
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad - 28'
|
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
The match between Dynamo Makhachkala and Orenburg has officially finished, with the home side securing a 1-0 full-time victory. Dynamo Makhachkala took the lead in the first half to make it 1-0 at the break, and that lone goal proved decisive as neither side found the back of the net in the second half. Pre-match market probabilities were entirely neutral, yet the final result was ultimately aligned with overall market expectations. Dynamo Makhachkala, identified as the stronger team, produced a significant deviation from baseline metrics to claim the victory. On the pitch, Orenburg held a slight majority of the ball with 54% possession compared to Dynamo Makhachkala's 46%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so a direct comparison between underlying chance quality and the final outcome cannot be made. However, the result was in line with overall efficiency shifts, as the home side posted a positive 1.0056 efficiency rating compared to Orenburg's -1.0056. Finally, the match concluded without any red cards, meaning sudden disciplinary events did not impact the flow or outcome of this closely fought contest.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Dynamo Makhachkala showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
A. Chistyakov
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
V. Evseev
VS
I. Akhmetzyanov
0.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.85
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 59 W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 50 L
Sochi Rank: 50 D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 68 L
CSKA Moskva Rank: 74 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: 79 W
Akron Rank: 56 W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 57 L
CSKA Moskva Rank: 74 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 72 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Dynamo Makhachkala0%
Draw
0%
Orenburg0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.86 51.73 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dynamo Makhachkala OrenburgPower Score
56.86
51.73
League Position
12
14
Global Rank
554
686
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala — Opponent-weighted form score
Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dynamo Makhachkala Orenburg
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
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Dynamo Makhachkala
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Orenburg
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Dynamo Makhachkala ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.41
19.17
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.17
31.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dynamo Makhachkala +1.41 Efficiency Index
vs
Orenburg -1.41 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Makhachkala
Orenburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Dynamo Makhachkala ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dynamo Makhachkala Orenburg Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dynamo Makhachkala Orenburg Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Makhachkala
Orenburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala Home
3 matches
Orenburg Orenburg Away
Match Record 1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals 4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-14T02:04:24+00:00
STARTING XI
Dynamo Makhachkala Orenburg Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
27 D. Volk
22 M. Azzi
A. Alarcón Mendoza
#2443'
4 (C) I. Shumakhov
5 J. Tabidze
K. Zinovich
#1963'
71 J. Đapo
16 H. Eddine Mrezigue
6 E. Moubarik
47 N. Glushkov
I. Akhmedov
#4385'
10 M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
77 T. Sundukov
H. Mastouri
#746'
25 G. Agalarov
1 B. Ovsyannikov
G. Guzina
#3078'
3 D. Vedernikov
26 E. Tsenov
6 J. Palacios Santos
18 (C) F. Moufi
59 T. Avanesian
R. Kul
#7870'
37 E. Santos Queiroz
D. Rybchinsky
#2070'
7 F. Gürlük
A. Cantero Fernandez
#3278'
8 D. Puebla
16 J. Thompson
Alexandre Jesus
#1990'
9 M. Savelyev
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Mar 13, 2026, 04:30 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
🏟️ Stadium :
Anzhi-Arena
👥 Capacity :
28000
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Artem Chistyakov
Statistics
Possession
Dynamo Makhachkala
49%
Orenburg
51%
Top Statistics
0 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 8
49 Dangerous attacks 47
46 Possession 54
6 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
Match Overview
7 Goal Kicks 7
6 Dribble Attempts 13
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
3 Successful Dribbles 5
22 Throwins 21
11 Successful Headers 23
Attacking
89 Attacks 103
0 Big Chances Missed 1
Possession
19 Successful Long Passes 16
252 Passes 284
64 Long Passes 46
30 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
167 Successful Passes 199
66 Successful Passes Percentage 70
Defensive
15 Tackles 6
3 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 7
Build-up
19 Total Crosses 26
10 Accurate Crosses 6
Discipline
13 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0
Lineup
Dynamo Makhachkala Referee : Artem Chistyakov
Manager ▼
V. Evseev Coach
Starting XI ▼
27 David Volk Goalkeeper
6.94 Idar Shumakhov (C) Defender
6.724Andrés Alarcón
6.67Midfielder43'
5 Jemal Tabidze Defender
6.7322 Mohamed Azzi Defender
6.95
71 Jan Dapo Defender
6.53
19Kirill Zinovich
6.77Midfielder63'
6 Mehdi Moubarik Midfielder
7.1110 Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad Midfielder
43Ilyas Akhmedov
6.55Defender85'
16 Houssem Mrezigue Midfielder
7.447 Nikita Glushkov Midfielder
6.8577 Temirkan Sundukov Midfielder
6.3625 Gamid Agalarov Attacker
6.737Hazem Mastouri
6.66Attacker46'
Substitutes ▼
24Andrés Alarcón
6.67Midfielder43'
7Hazem Mastouri
6.66Attacker46'
19Kirill Zinovich
6.77Midfielder63'
43Ilyas Akhmedov
6.55Defender85'
Bench ▼
33 Nikita Karabashev Goalkeeper
39
Timur Magomedov Goalkeeper
13
Soslan Kagermazov Defender
75 Arsen Shikhaliev Defender
78 Nikita Voronin Midfielder
11
Miro Attacker
28
Serder Serderov Attacker
55
Diaa Eddine Mechid Attacker
Orenburg Referee : Artem Chistyakov
Manager ▼
I. Akhmetzyanov Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 B. Ovsyannikov Goalkeeper
6.883 Danila Vedernikov Defender
6.6530G. Guzina
6.48Attacker78'
6 Jhon Alex Palacios Defender
6.818 Fahd Moufi (C) Defender
6.56
26 Emil Tsenov Defender
6.497 E. Gürlük Midfielder
6.2720D. Rybchinskiy
6.86Midfielder70'
8 Damián Puebla Midfielder
6.43
32Alexis Cantero
6.49Defender78'
16 J. Thompson Midfielder
6.6237 Du Queiroz Midfielder
6.3878Ruslan Kul
6.49Midfielder70'
59 Tigran Avanesyan Midfielder
6.499 M. Savelyev Attacker
6.8219Alexandre Jesus
6.59Attacker90'
Substitutes ▼
20D. Rybchinskiy
6.86Midfielder70'
78Ruslan Kul
6.49Midfielder70'
32Alexis Cantero
6.49Defender78'
30G. Guzina
6.48Attacker78'
19Alexandre Jesus
6.59Attacker90'
Bench ▼
88
Maksim Rudakov Goalkeeper
4 D. Khotulev Defender
5
A. Tataev Defender
2
S. Poroykov Midfielder
33
Philipp Hilmer Midfielder
57
E. Bolotov Midfielder
29
Anas El Mahraoui Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
Mohamed Azzi
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+2'
90+2'
Fahd Moufi
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90'
Alexandre Jesus → M. Savelyev
9th Substitution
Ilyas Akhmedov → Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
8th Substitution
85'
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Penalty disallowed
83'
78'
Alexis Cantero → Damián Puebla
6th Substitution
78'
G. Guzina → Danila Vedernikov
7th Substitution
70'
D. Rybchinskiy → E. Gürlük
5th Substitution
70'
Ruslan Kul → Du Queiroz
4th Substitution
Kirill Zinovich → Jan Dapo
3rd Substitution
63'
Hazem Mastouri → Gamid Agalarov
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Andrés Alarcón → Idar Shumakhov
1st Substitution
43'
36'
Damián Puebla
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
28'
Jan Dapo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Dynamo Makhachkala exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
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