Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky Sun, 3 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Dynamo Kyiv DYN
1 Winner 2
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK
Full Time Sun, 3 May 3:00 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Matviy Ponomarenko - 13'
Goal
|
Goal
Lassina Traoré - 68'
Lucas Ferreira - 50'

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested Ukrainian Premier League match at the Dynamo Stadium, Dynamo Kyiv fell 1-2 to rivals Shakhtar Donetsk. The hosts started strongly, leading 1-0 at halftime thanks to an early goal, showcasing their defensive solidity and quick counter-attacks. However, Shakhtar, recognized as the stronger side, dominated the second half with superior possession at 51% overall and clinical finishing to overturn the deficit. Dynamo's 49% possession reflected a balanced affair, but they couldn't maintain their lead against Shakhtar's relentless pressure. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing both teams to play open football. This result underscores Shakhtar's quality in high-stakes derbies, extending their edge in the title race. Dynamo's second-half lapse highlights areas for improvement in game management.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Shakhtar Donetsk exhibited minimal structural deviation of 5.2%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match levels.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No notable second-half adjustments or knockout ties affected play.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Afanasiev

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Rybchenko

1st Assistant

S. Zadyran

4th Official

D. Romanov

2nd Assistant

Dynamo Kyiv I. Kostyuk
I. Kostyuk
VS
Shakhtar Donetsk A. Turan
A. Turan
1.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.57
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 56 W
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 52 W
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 50 L
Karpaty Rank: 55 L
Oleksandria Rank: 43 W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kudrivka Rank: 41 W
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 52 W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 61 W
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 44 W
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 52 W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 14 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dynamo Kyiv
0.63%
Draw
4.56%
Away Shakhtar Donetsk
94.81%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dynamo Kyiv
-0.78%
Draw
-4.89%
Shakhtar Donetsk
+5.67%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.83
75.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dynamo Kyiv
Shakhtar Donetsk
Power Score
65.83
75.03
League Position
4
1
Global Rank
300
114

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dynamo Kyiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Shakhtar Donetsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dynamo Kyiv Shakhtar Donetsk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dynamo Kyiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Shakhtar Donetsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dynamo Kyiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shakhtar Donetsk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.63
20.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.88
21.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dynamo Kyiv +0.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk -0.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Kyiv
Shakhtar Donetsk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dynamo Kyiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Shakhtar Donetsk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dynamo Kyiv Shakhtar Donetsk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dynamo Kyiv Shakhtar Donetsk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Kyiv
Shakhtar Donetsk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dynamo Kyiv
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dynamo Kyiv Shakhtar Donetsk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dynamo Kyiv 0.28
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dynamo Kyiv Shakhtar Donetsk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dynamo Kyiv 0.06
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.03
Dynamo Kyiv
Shakhtar Donetsk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DYN had peak pressure around 93'.
  • DYN started the game with stronger pressure.
DYN Pressure SHK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DYN reached the top pressure at 93' (60.07).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 51 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dynamo Kyiv DYN Home
51 matches
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK Away
Match Record
13
Wins
24
14
Draws
14
24
Losses
13
Goals
48
Goals Scored
69
69
Goals Conceded
48
-21
Goal Difference
+21

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:05:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
R. Neshcheret
Ukraine
35 R. Neshcheret
O. Karavaev
Ukraine
20 O. Karavaev
K. Bilova
Ukraine
40 K. Bilova
T. Mykhavko
Ukraine
32 T. Mykhavko
K. Vivcharenko
Ukraine
2 K. Vivcharenko
V. Buyalskyy
Substitution
Ukraine
29 V. Buyalskyy
M. Mykhailenko
Substitution
Ukraine
91 M. Mykhailenko
M. Shaparenko
Substitution
Ukraine
10 M. Shaparenko
A. Yarmolenko
Substitution
Ukraine
7 A. Yarmolenko
M. Ponomarenko
Ukraine
11 M. Ponomarenko
B. Redushko
Substitution
70 B. Redushko
Pitch
D. Riznyk
Ukraine
31 D. Riznyk
I. Azarovi
Substitution
Georgia
16 I. Azarovi
M. Matviyenko
Ukraine
22 M. Matviyenko
M. Santos da Silva Barbosa
Substitution
Brazil
4 M. Santos da Silva Barbosa
A. Ghram
Tunisia
18 A. Ghram
I. Severino Silva
14 I. Severino Silva
E. Nazaryna
Substitution
Ukraine
29 E. Nazaryna
A. Bondarenko
Substitution
Ukraine
21 A. Bondarenko
N. Martins da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
11 N. Martins da Silva
L. Traore
Burkina Faso
2 L. Traore
L. dos Santos Ferreira
37 L. dos Santos Ferreira

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky
Capacity :
40003
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oleksandr Afanasiev
Igor Rybchenko
Sergiy Zadyran
Denis Romanov

Statistics

Possession
DYN
49%
SHK
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
5 Shots 5
32 Dangerous attacks 33
49 Possession 51
8 Corners 5
6 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1

Attacking

63 Attacks 69

Discipline

11 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Oleksandr Afanasiev

Starting XI ▼

35
Ruslan Neshcheret
Ruslan Neshcheret Goalkeeper
6.29
2
Kostyantyn Vivcharenko
Kostyantyn Vivcharenko Defender
6.52
20
Oleksandr Karavaev
Oleksandr Karavaev Defender
6.52
32
Taras Mykhavko
Taras Mykhavko Defender
6.49
40
Kristian Bilovar
Kristian Bilovar Defender
6.48
7
Andriy Yarmolenko
Andriy Yarmolenko Midfielder
6.82
16
Shola Ogundana
Shola Ogundana
Midfielder70'
6.46
10
Mykola Shaparenko
Mykola Shaparenko Midfielder
6.86
39
Eduardo Guerrero
Eduardo Guerrero
Attacker84'
6.57
29
Vitaliy Buyalskyi
Vitaliy Buyalskyi Midfielder
6.68
5
Oleksandr Yatsyk
Oleksandr Yatsyk
Midfielder70'
6.53
70
Bogdan Redushko
Bogdan Redushko Midfielder
6.92
44
Vladyslav Dubinchak
Vladyslav Dubinchak
Defender84'
6.31
91
Mykola Mykhaylenko
Mykola Mykhaylenko Midfielder
6.46
8
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
Midfielder77'
6.78
11
Matviy Ponomarenko
Matviy Ponomarenko Attacker
7.15
Referee : Oleksandr Afanasiev

Starting XI ▼

31
Dmytro Riznyk
Dmytro Riznyk Goalkeeper
6.47
4
Marlon
Marlon Defender
6.63
17
Vinícius Tobias
Vinícius Tobias
Defender28'
6.58
16
Irakli Azarovi
Irakli Azarovi Defender
6.45
13
Pedro Henrique
Pedro Henrique
Defender76'
6.75
18
Alaa Ghram
Alaa Ghram Defender
6.42
22
Mykola Matvienko
Mykola Matvienko Defender
6.56
11
Newerton
Newerton Midfielder
6.72
68
Prosper Obah
Prosper Obah
Attacker46'
6.63
14
Isaque
Isaque Midfielder
6.71
21
Artem Bondarenko
Artem Bondarenko Midfielder
6.63
27
Oleg Ocheretko
Oleg Ocheretko
Midfielder63'
6.58
29
Yegor Nazaryna
Yegor Nazaryna Midfielder
6.83
8
Dmytro Kryskiv
Dmytro Kryskiv
Midfielder46'
6.53
37
Lucas Ferreira
Lucas Ferreira Midfielder
6.72
2
Lassina Traoré
Lassina Traoré Attacker
7.03

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
4th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Eduardo Guerrero
Var
87'
Event
Vladyslav Dubinchak → Bogdan Redushko
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Eduardo Guerrero → Mykola Shaparenko
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok → Mykola Mykhaylenko
8th Substitution
77'
76'
Event
Pedro Henrique → Irakli Azarovi
7th Substitution
Event
Shola Ogundana → Andriy Yarmolenko
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Oleksandr Yatsyk → Vitaliy Buyalskyi  
6th Substitution
70'
68'
Event
Lassina Traoré
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
63'
Event
Oleg Ocheretko → Artem Bondarenko
4th Substitution
50'
Event
Lucas Ferreira
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Kristian Bilovar
3rd Yellowcard
47'
46'
Event
Dmytro Kryskiv → Yegor Nazaryna
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Prosper Obah → Newerton
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Mykola Matvienko
2nd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Vinícius Tobias
1st Yellowcard
28'
Event
Vinícius Tobias → Marlon
1st Substitution
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

85
Update Update
Goal! Eduardo Guerrero scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
85
Update Update
The VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Eduardo Guerrero due to offside.
84
Update Update
Eduardo Guerrero replaces Mykola Shaparenko.
84
Update Update
Vladyslav Dubinchak is on, and Bohdan Redushko is off.
84
Update Update
Vladyslav Dubinchak is on, and Bohdan Redushko is off.
84
Update Update
Eduardo Guerrero replaces Mykola Shaparenko.
76
Update Update
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok replaces Mykola Mykhailenko.
76
Update Update
Pedrinho comes on for Irakli Azarov.
70
Update Update
Ogundana Shola comes on for Andriy Yarmolenko.
70
Update Update
Oleksandr Yatsyk comes on for Vitaliy Buyalskyi.
63
Update Update
Oleh Ocheretko is on, and Artem Bondarenko is off.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kristian Bilovar receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Prosper Obah is on, and Newerton is off.
46
Update Update
Dmytro Kryskiv is on, and Yegor Nazaryna is off.
27
Update Update
Vinicius Tobias comes on for Marlon Santos da Silva Barbosa.
13
Update Update
Goal! Matvii Ponomarenko scores to make it 1-0.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Shakhtar Donetsk exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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