Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine

Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky Sat, 4 Apr - 3:00 PM

Premier League

Dynamo Kyiv DYN

Karpaty Karpaty

Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 3:00 PM

Round 22 Regular Season

Baboucarr Faal - 6'

Matviy Ponomarenko 90+4'

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Dynamo Kyiv suffering a surprising 0-1 home defeat against Karpaty. The visitors took a 1-0 lead into halftime and successfully held onto that advantage until the final whistle. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in favor of Karpaty. Dynamo Kyiv entered the fixture as the decidedly stronger team, carrying a 62% implied

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Karpaty showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

D. Panchyshyn

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Dumenko

1st Assistant

Y. Povazhnyi

2nd Assistant

E. Tsybulko

4th Official

I. Kostyuk

F. Fernández Díaz

1.86

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.29

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

22 - 7 - 2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Dynamo Kyiv

61.95%

Draw

22.5%

Karpaty

15.55%

Team Power Ranking

65.8

52.49

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Dynamo Kyiv

Karpaty

Power Score

65.8

52.49

League Position

Global Rank

294

676

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Dynamo Kyiv — Opponent-weighted form score

Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dynamo Kyiv Karpaty

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Dynamo Kyiv

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dynamo Kyiv ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Karpaty

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

20.69

21.57

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

21.57

20.69

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Dynamo Kyiv -0.09 Efficiency Index

Karpaty +0.09 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Dynamo Kyiv

Karpaty

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dynamo Kyiv ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Karpaty

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Dynamo Kyiv Karpaty

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Dynamo Kyiv Karpaty

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Dynamo Kyiv

Karpaty

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Dynamo Kyiv

Karpaty

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Dynamo Kyiv Karpaty

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Dynamo Kyiv Karpaty

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Dynamo Kyiv

Karpaty

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dynamo Kyiv DYN Home

31 matches

Karpaty Karpaty Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+45

Goal Difference

-45

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-5-1

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

35 R. Neshcheret

13 M. Korobov

40 K. Bilova

4 D. Popov

2 K. Vivcharenko

7 A. Yarmolenko

8 O. Pikhalyonok

6 V. Brazhko

10 M. Shaparenko

70 B. Redushko

11 M. Ponomarenko

1 N. Domchak

73 R. Lyakh

44 V. Kholod

4 V. Baboglo

11 D. Miroshnichenko

20 M. Sapuga

26 Y. Kostenko

37 B. Pereira da Silva

8 A. Chachua

70 X. Alkain Mitxelena

99 B. Faal

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 04, 2026, 03:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 22 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky

Capacity :

40003

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Dmytro Panchyshyn

Volodymyr Dumenko

Yaroslav Povazhnyi

Evgen Tsybulko

Statistics

Possession

DYN

62%

Karpaty

38%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1

10 Shots 6

69 Dangerous attacks 31

65 Possession 35

5 Corners 3

20 Free kicks 8

2 Yellow Cards 4

1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 11

3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

101 Attacks 57

Defensive

2 Saves 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 0

11 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Dmytro Panchyshyn

Manager ▼

I. Kostyuk Coach

Starting XI ▼

Ruslan Neshcheret Goalkeeper

Kostyantyn Vivcharenko Defender

Denys Popov Defender

Maksym Korobov Defender

Kristian Bilovar Defender

Volodymyr Brazhko Midfielder

Andriy Yarmolenko Midfielder

Nazar Voloshyn

Midfielder59'

Oleksandr Pikhalyonok Midfielder

Vitaliy Buyalskyi

Midfielder67'

Mykola Shaparenko Midfielder

Mykola Mykhaylenko

Midfielder59'

Bogdan Redushko Midfielder

Matviy Ponomarenko Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Nazar Voloshyn

Midfielder59'

Mykola Mykhaylenko

Midfielder59'

Vitaliy Buyalskyi

Midfielder67'

Bench ▼

Valentyn Morgun Goalkeeper

Viacheslav Surkis Goalkeeper

Oleksandr Tymchyk Defender

Oleksandr Karavaev Defender

Vladyslav Zakharchenko Defender

Vladyslav Dubinchak Defender

Aliou Thiaré Defender

Vladyslav Kabaev Midfielder

Eduardo Guerrero Attacker

Referee : Dmytro Panchyshyn