Dundee vs Motherwell Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park Sat, 7 Mar - 3:00 PM
Premiership
Dundee DUD
2 Winner 1
Motherwell MOT
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
Finlay Robertson - 84'
Tony Yogane - 32'
Goal
|
Goal
Callum Slattery - 78'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Dundee 2–1 Motherwell. The result saw Dundee take the points. Dundee showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 33%–67%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dundee showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. McFarlane

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Wilkie

4th Official

A. Taylor

2nd Assistant

G. Crawford

1st Assistant

Dundee S. Pressley
S. Pressley
VS
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.04
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: D
Aberdeen Rank: W
Livingston Rank: D
Falkirk Rank: L
St. Mirren Rank: D
Rangers Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: W
St. Mirren Rank: W
Aberdeen Rank: W
Rangers Rank: D
Livingston Rank: W
Kilmarnock Rank: W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 8 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dundee
22.87%
Draw
25.5%
Away Motherwell
51.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
35.63
60.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dundee
Motherwell
Power Score
35.63
60.92
League Position
8
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dundee — Opponent-weighted form score
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dundee Motherwell

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dundee

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dundee ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.55
37.99
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.99
29.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dundee -0.81 Efficiency Index
vs
Motherwell +0.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee
Motherwell
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dundee ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dundee Motherwell
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dundee Motherwell
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee
Motherwell
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dundee DUD Home
12 matches
Motherwell MOT Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
3
Goals
18
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
18
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:06:37+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 07, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Stadium :
Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park
Capacity :
12085
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Dan McFarlane
Jamie Wilkie
Alaistair Taylor
Gordon Crawford

Statistics

Possession
DUD
36%
MOT
64%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 9
35 Dangerous attacks 89
33 Possession 67
2 Corners 1
19 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Dribble Attempts 24
3 Successful Dribbles 10
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
63 Ball Safe 65
12 Goal Kicks 10
16 Throwins 18
14 Successful Headers 9
4 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 0
1 Assists 0

Attacking

52 Attacks 145
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
65 Long Passes 38
76 Successful Passes Percentage 87
292 Passes 614
222 Successful Passes 535
28 Successful Long Passes 20
5 Key Passes 10

Defensive

28 Tackles 17
12 Interceptions 6
8 Saves 0

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 25
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 19

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Cameron Congreve
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
90+2'
Event
Paul McGinn
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Brad Halliday → Yan Dhanda
9th Substitution
90+1'
85'
Event
Sam Nicholson → Oscar Priestman
8th Substitution
Event
Finlay Robertson
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
84'
Event
Ethan Hamilton
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
80'
78'
Event
Callum Slattery
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Finlay Robertson
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
67'
Event
Regan Charles-Cook → Emmanuel Longelo
7th Substitution
Event
Var
65'
Event
Ashley Hay → Simon Murray
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Finlay Robertson → Joel Cotterill
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Joe Westley → Tony Yogane
6th Substitution
63'
Event
Luke Graham
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
48'
46'
Event
Eythor Bjørgolfsson → Ibrahim Said
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Tom Sparrow → Stephen O'Donnell
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Oscar Priestman → Lukas Fadinger
1st Substitution
35'
Event
Ibrahim Said
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Tony Yogane
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
32'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cameron Congreve from Dundee receives a yellow card in the 92nd minute.
90
Substitution Substitution
Brad Halliday is being substituted for Dundee in the 91st minute.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Paul McGinn from Motherwell received a yellow card in the 92nd minute.
85
Substitution Substitution
Sam Nicholson of Motherwell is being substituted in the 85th minute.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Finlay Robertson from Dundee scores a goal in the 84th minute.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ethan Hamilton from Dundee receives a yellow card in the 80th minute.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Callum Slattery from Motherwell scores in the 78th minute.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ethan Hamilton from Dundee receives a yellow card in the 70th minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Regan Charles-Cook is being substituted for Motherwell in the 67th minute.
63
Substitution Substitution
Ashley Hay of Dundee is being substituted in the 63rd minute.
63
Substitution Substitution
Joe Westley from Dundee has been substituted in the 63rd minute.
63
Substitution Substitution
Finlay Robertson from Dundee is being substituted in the 63rd minute.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luke Graham from Dundee receives a yellow card in the 48th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Eythor Bjørgolfsson of Motherwell is being substituted out at the 45-minute mark.
45
Substitution Substitution
Tom Sparrow of Motherwell is being substituted out at the 45-minute mark.
38
Substitution Substitution
Oscar Priestman of Motherwell has been substituted in the 38th minute.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ibrahim Sa'Id from Motherwell received a yellow card in the 35th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dundee exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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