Dundee vs Celtic Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland

Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park Sun, 5 Apr - 3:30 PM

Premiership

Dundee DUD

Celtic CEL

Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 3:30 PM

Round 32 Regular Season

Simon Murray - 57' (P)

Kelechi Iheanacho - 82'

Hyun-jun Yang - 8'

Ryan Astley 84'

CONTEXT

The match between Dundee and Celtic has finished in a 1-1 draw. This final score represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Celtic entered the contest as the decidedly stronger side with a commanding 61.5% probability of victory. Conversely, Dundee held just a 16.5% chance of winning, with a draw priced at 22%. Ultimately, the final outcome was entirely unaligned with the pre-match market. Celtic controlled the tempo for much of the game, holding 58% possession compared to Dundee's 42%, and the visitors took a 1-0 lead into the half-time break. However, the game's narrative shifted dramatically in the second half, heavily impacted by a red card distortion. Dundee received the only red card of the match, yet the ten-man home side remarkably managed to equalize and secure a point. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome aligned with the exact balance of scoring chances. However, the overall efficiency shift for the match was recorded as being in line with standard baseline expectations. Celtic will inevitably rue their inability to secure all three points despite their statistical advantages.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Celtic showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

S. McLean

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Spence

1st Assistant

D. Ross

2nd Assistant

G. Grainger

4th Official

S. Pressley

M. O'Neill

1.08

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.88

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 5 - 25

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Dundee

16.54%

Draw

22%

Celtic

61.46%

Team Power Ranking

58.53

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Dundee

Celtic

Power Score

58.53

League Position

Global Rank

511

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Dundee — Opponent-weighted form score

Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dundee Celtic

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Dundee

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dundee ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Celtic

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

22.38

34.66

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

34.66

22.38

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Dundee -1.18 Efficiency Index

Celtic +1.18 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Dundee

Celtic

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dundee ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Celtic

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Dundee Celtic

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Dundee Celtic

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Dundee

Celtic

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Dundee

Celtic

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Dundee Celtic

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Dundee Celtic

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Dundee

Celtic

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dundee DUD Home

31 matches

Celtic CEL Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-66

Goal Difference

+66

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:04:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 J. McCracken

16 B. Halliday

4 R. Astley

22 L. Graham

7 D. Wright

48 E. Hamilton

20 C. Congreve

21 Y. Dhanda

10 F. Robertson

17 T. Yogane

15 S. Murray

12 V. Sinisalo

63 K. Tierney

5 L. Scales

6 A. Trusty

51 C. Donovan

21 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

42 C. McGregor

38 D. Maeda

8 B. Nygren

13 H. Yang

11 T. Čvančara

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 05, 2026, 03:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 32 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park

Capacity :

12085

Attendance :

9007

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Steven McLean

Calum Spence

Douglas Ross

Graham Grainger

Statistics

Possession

DUD

44%

CEL

56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 4

6 Shots 8

28 Dangerous attacks 62

42 Possession 58

1 Corners 4

12 Free kicks 7

0 Yellow Cards 2

1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42

12 Dribble Attempts 19

0 Assists 2

7 Successful Dribbles 8

13 Goal Kicks 7

4 Goal Attempts 13

103 Ball Safe 99

9 Successful Headers 11

20 Throwins 23

0 Hit Woodwork 2

5 Substitutions 5

1 Penalties 0

1 Injuries 1

Attacking

101 Attacks 120

0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

401 Passes 552

6 Key Passes 13

307 Successful Passes 461

75 Long Passes 64

77 Successful Passes Percentage 84

32 Successful Long Passes 27

43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

10 Interceptions 8

16 Tackles 17

44 Duels Won 43

5 Saves 2

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 22

2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

7 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Steven McLean

Manager ▼

S. Pressley Coach

Starting XI ▼

Jon McCracken Goalkeeper

Ryan Astley Defender

Drey Wright Defender

Charlie Reilly

Attacker90+2'

Brad Halliday Defender

Luke Graham Defender

Finlay Robertson Midfielder

Joel Cotterill

Midfielder67'

Tony Yogane Midfielder

Scott Wright

Attacker73'

Cameron Congreve Midfielder

Yan Dhanda Midfielder

Billy Koumetio

Defender90+2'

Ethan Hamilton Midfielder

Simon Murray Attacker

Ashley Hay

Attacker67'

Substitutes ▼

Ashley Hay

Attacker67'

Joel Cotterill

Midfielder67'

Scott Wright

Attacker73'

Billy Koumetio

Defender90+2'

Charlie Reilly

Attacker90+2'

Bench ▼

Kieran O'Hara Goalkeeper

Imari Samuels Defender

Callum Jones Midfielder

Joe Westley Attacker

Referee : Steven McLean