Dundee United vs Livingston Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tannadice Park Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Dundee United DUD
3 Winner 2
Livingston LIV
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Zachary Sapsford - 90+3' (P)
Krisztián Keresztes - 75'
Will Ferry - 19'
Goal
|
Goal
Lewis Smith - 53', 49'

CONTEXT

The match between Dundee United and Livingston is now finished, with Dundee United recording a 3-2 victory at full time. The home side led 1-0 at the interval and added two second-half goals while repelling a late Livingston response. This outcome represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Dundee United claimed the win despite not being the stronger proposition heading into the fixture. The result therefore did not align with the pre-match projection. Possession was almost perfectly balanced at 51 percent for Dundee United and 49 percent for the visitors, though expected goals data was unavailable for further insight. No red cards were shown, and the efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns rather than swinging dramatically in either direction. Overall the contest reflected Dundee United’s ability to capitalise on their opportunities against a competitive Livingston outfit, producing a result that diverged sharply from what had been anticipated beforehand.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dundee United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Graham

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Potter

1st Assistant

C. Gentles

2nd Assistant

C. Steven

4th Official

Dundee United J. Goodwin
J. Goodwin
VS
Livingston M. Bartley
M. Bartley
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.42
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: L
Celtic Rank: W
Dundee Rank: D
St. Mirren Rank: W
Motherwell Rank: L
Aberdeen Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: D
Kilmarnock Rank: L
Hibernian Rank: D
St. Mirren Rank: D
Rangers Rank: D
Dundee Rank: D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 3 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dundee United
4.44%
Draw
92.34%
Away Livingston
3.22%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dundee United
-0.47%
Draw
+0.84%
Livingston
-0.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.21
13.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dundee United
Livingston
Power Score
24.21
13.59
League Position
7
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dundee United — Opponent-weighted form score
Livingston — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dundee United Livingston

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dundee United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Livingston

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dundee United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Livingston
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.80
33.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.27
34.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dundee United +0.15 Efficiency Index
vs
Livingston -0.15 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee United
Livingston
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dundee United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Livingston
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dundee United Livingston
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dundee United Livingston
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee United
Livingston
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dundee United
vs
Livingston
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dundee United Livingston
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dundee United 0.27
Livingston 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dundee United Livingston
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dundee United 0.04
Livingston 0.05
Dundee United
Livingston
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DUD had peak pressure around 79'.
  • DUD started the game with stronger pressure.
DUD Pressure LIV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DUD reached the top pressure at 79' (64.64).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dundee United DUD Home
16 matches
Livingston LIV Away
Match Record
5
Wins
8
3
Draws
3
8
Losses
5
Goals
20
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
20
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:06:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Richards
Wales
25 D. Richards
S. Harding
Scotland
37 S. Harding
I. Iovu
Substitution
Moldova
4 I. Iovu
R. Graham
Scotland
6 R. Graham
R. Strain
Australia
2 R. Strain
V. Ševelj
Substitution
Croatia
5 V. Ševelj
E. Agyei
Ghana
12 E. Agyei
W. Ferry
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
11 W. Ferry
Z. Sapsford
Australia
9 Z. Sapsford
A. Ahmed Fatah
Substitution
Sweden
17 A. Ahmed Fatah
M. Watters
Substitution
England
36 M. Watters
Pitch
J. Prior
France
28 J. Prior
C. Montaño Castillo
Colombia
26 C. Montaño Castillo
D. Wilson
Scotland
27 D. Wilson
D. Finlayson
Northern Ireland
19 D. Finlayson
B. Fati
Substitution
Portugal
3 B. Fati
M. Sylla
France
24 M. Sylla
S. Arfield
Substitution
Canada
37 S. Arfield
C. Kerr
Scotland
2 C. Kerr
S. May
Substitution
Scotland
17 S. May
L. Smith
Substitution
Scotland
15 L. Smith
J. Nouble
Substitution
England
7 J. Nouble

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Tannadice Park
Capacity :
14268
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Dougie Potter
Chris Gentles
Colin Steven
Chris Graham

Statistics

Possession
DUD
50%
LIV
50%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
13 Shots 9
55 Dangerous attacks 46
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 3
8 Free kicks 7

Match Overview

34 Throwins 31
26 Successful Headers 24
7 Goal Kicks 11
4 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 2
13 Dribble Attempts 8
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
5 Successful Dribbles 5
2 Injuries 0
80 Ball Safe 81
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

124 Attacks 94
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

362 Passes 360
9 Successful Long Passes 29
227 Successful Passes 204
14 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
65 Long Passes 96
63 Successful Passes Percentage 57
10 Key Passes 11

Defensive

9 Tackles 17
8 Interceptions 14
4 Saves 2

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 1
22 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

7 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Chris Graham

Starting XI ▼

25
Dave Richards
Dave Richards Goalkeeper
4
Iurie Iovu
Iurie Iovu Defender
23
Krisztián Keresztes
Krisztián Keresztes
Defender62'
6
Ross Graham
Ross Graham Defender
37
S. Harding
S. Harding Defender
2
Ryan Strain
Ryan Strain Midfielder
5
Vicko Sevelj
Vicko Sevelj Midfielder
22
Dario Naamo
Dario Naamo
Defender62'
11
Will Ferry
Will Ferry Midfielder
19
Ivan Dolcek
Ivan Dolcek
Attacker88'
12
Emmanuel Agyei
Emmanuel Agyei Midfielder
9
Zachary Sapsford
Zachary Sapsford Attacker
17
Amar Fatah
Amar Fatah Attacker
20
N. Farrugia
N. Farrugia
Attacker14'
36
Max Watters
Max Watters Attacker
8
Panutche Camara
Panutche Camara
Midfielder62'
Referee : Chris Graham

Starting XI ▼

28
Jérôme Prior
Jérôme Prior Goalkeeper
19
Danny Finlayson
Danny Finlayson Defender
26
Cristian Montano
Cristian Montano Defender
27
Danny Wilson
Danny Wilson Defender
2
Cammy Kerr
Cammy Kerr Midfielder
3
Babacar Fati
Babacar Fati Midfielder
23
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Defender71'
24
Mohamad Sylla
Mohamad Sylla Midfielder
37
Scott Arfield
Scott Arfield Midfielder
25
Macaulay Tait
Macaulay Tait
Midfielder71'
7
Joel Nouble
Joel Nouble Attacker
9
Robbie Muirhead
Robbie Muirhead
Attacker70'
15
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith Attacker
2
29
Joshua Zimmerman
Joshua Zimmerman
Attacker82'
17
Stevie May
Stevie May Attacker
8
Scott Pittman
Scott Pittman
Attacker64'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Zachary Sapsford
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+3'
Event
Ivan Dolcek → Will Ferry
10th Substitution
88'
82'
Event
Joshua Zimmerman → Lewis Smith
9th Substitution
Event
Krisztián Keresztes
Header / 4th Goal
75'
71'
Event
Brooklyn Kabongolo → Babacar Fati
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Macaulay Tait → Scott Arfield
8th Substitution
70'
Event
Robbie Muirhead → Joel Nouble
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Scott Pittman → Stevie May
5th Substitution
Event
Krisztián Keresztes → Iurie Iovu
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Panutche Camara → Max Watters
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Dario Naamo → Vicko Sevelj
4th Substitution
62'
53'
Event
Lewis Smith
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
49'
Event
Lewis Smith
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Will Ferry
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'
Event
N. Farrugia → Amar Fatah
1st Substitution
14'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Zachary Sapsford scores a penalty for Dundee United in the 93rd minute.
88
Substitution Substitution
Ivan Dolcek is substituted for Dundee United in the 88th minute.
82
Substitution Substitution
Joshua Zimmerman is substituted for Livingston in the 82nd minute.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Krisztián Keresztes scores for Dundee United in the 75th minute.
71
Substitution Substitution
Macauley Tait is substituted for Livingston in the 71st minute.
71
Substitution Substitution
Brooklyn Kabongolo is substituted for Livingston in the 71st minute.
70
Substitution Substitution
Robbie Muirhead is substituted for Livingston in the 70th minute.
64
Substitution Substitution
Scott Pittman is substituted for Livingston in the 64th minute.
62
Substitution Substitution
Dario Naamo is substituted for Dundee United in the 62nd minute.
62
Substitution Substitution
Krisztián Keresztes is substituted for Dundee United in the 62nd minute.
62
Substitution Substitution
Panutche Camara is substituted for Dundee United in the 62nd minute.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Lewis Smith scores for Livingston at the 53rd minute.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Lewis Smith scores for Livingston at the 49th minute.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Will Ferry scores for Dundee United at the 19th minute.
14
Update Update
32

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dundee United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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