Dundee United vs Dundee Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tannadice Park Sun, 26 Apr - 1:00 PM
Premiership
Dundee United DUD
3 Winner 0
Dundee DUD
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 34 2nd Phase
Ryan Strain - 72'
Will Ferry - 70', 14'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Dundee United defeated Dundee 3-0 in a match where they established early dominance, leading 1-0 at halftime before adding two second-half goals. Despite Dundee enjoying 52% possession compared to Dundee United's 48%, the home side converted their opportunities more effectively, resulting in a clean sheet and comprehensive win. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Dundee United's performance showed a significant structural deviation of 54.3% in their favor, aligning with market expectations. No red cards or major second-half adjustments altered the flow, and efficiency metrics remained in line with projections. This outcome underscores Dundee United's control in key moments, preventing any comeback despite the visitors' territorial advantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dundee United recorded a significant structural deviation of 54.3%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without supporting data.
  • Event impact: No impactful events from second-half adjustments recorded.
  • Red card distortion: No red card distortion as zero dismissals occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. McDermid

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Drummond

2nd Assistant

D. McFarlane

4th Official

D. McGeachie

1st Assistant

Dundee United J. Goodwin
J. Goodwin
VS
Dundee S. Pressley
S. Pressley
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: W
Rangers Rank: L
Celtic Rank: W
Dundee Rank: D
St. Mirren Rank: W
Motherwell Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: D
Celtic Rank: L
Hearts Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: D
Motherwell Rank: W
Hibernian Rank: D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 7 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dundee United
45.71%
Draw
26.46%
Away Dundee
27.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dundee United
-51.89%
Draw
+24.55%
Dundee
+27.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.64
23.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dundee United
Dundee
Power Score
24.64
23.33
League Position
7
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dundee United — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dundee United Dundee

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dundee United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dundee

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dundee United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.40
22.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.31
42.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dundee United +1.94 Efficiency Index
vs
Dundee -1.94 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee United
Dundee
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dundee United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dundee United Dundee
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dundee United Dundee
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dundee United
Dundee
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dundee United
vs
Dundee
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dundee United Dundee
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dundee United 0.38
Dundee 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dundee United Dundee
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dundee United 0.00
Dundee 0.06
Dundee United
Dundee
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DUD had peak pressure around 38'.
  • DUD started the game with stronger pressure.
DUD Pressure DUD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DUD reached the top pressure at 38' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dundee United DUD Home
20 matches
Dundee DUD Away
Match Record
8
Wins
5
7
Draws
7
5
Losses
8
Goals
40
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
40
+13
Goal Difference
-13

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:04:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
D. Richards
Wales
25 D. Richards
I. Iovu
Moldova
4 I. Iovu
R. Graham
Scotland
6 R. Graham
K. Keresztes
Hungary
23 K. Keresztes
R. Strain
Substitution
Australia
2 R. Strain
V. Ševelj
Croatia
5 V. Ševelj
E. Agyei
Substitution
Ghana
12 E. Agyei
W. Ferry
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
11 W. Ferry
N. Farrugia
Republic of Ireland
20 N. Farrugia
Z. Sapsford
Australia
9 Z. Sapsford
M. Watters
Substitution
England
36 M. Watters
Pitch
J. McCracken
Scotland
1 J. McCracken
I. Samuels
England
12 I. Samuels
B. Koumetio
France
5 B. Koumetio
L. Graham
Scotland
22 L. Graham
R. Astley
Wales
4 R. Astley
E. Hamilton
Scotland
48 E. Hamilton
S. Wright
Substitution
Scotland
25 S. Wright
J. Westley
England
19 J. Westley
Y. Dhanda
England
21 Y. Dhanda
C. Congreve
Substitution
Wales
20 C. Congreve
A. Hay
Substitution
England
11 A. Hay

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 34 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Tannadice Park
Capacity :
14268
Attendance :
13207
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Colin Drummond
Dan McFarlane
Matthew McDermid
David McGeachie

Statistics

Possession
DUD
49%
DUD
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 4
47 Dangerous attacks 32
48 Possession 52
2 Corners 4
7 Free kicks 22
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

24 Throwins 22
4 Dribble Attempts 11
2 Successful Dribbles 5
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
1 Hit Woodwork 0
10 Goal Kicks 9
11 Goal Attempts 3
74 Ball Safe 81
1 Injuries 2
4 Substitutions 3
2 Assists 0

Attacking

84 Attacks 85
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

256 Passes 278
9 Key Passes 4
60 Long Passes 80
63 Successful Passes Percentage 63
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
162 Successful Passes 176
19 Successful Long Passes 27

Defensive

3 Saves 2
4 Interceptions 9
15 Tackles 14
50 Duels Won 78

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 15
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

22 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Matthew McDermid

Starting XI ▼

25
Dave Richards
Dave Richards Goalkeeper
6.71
4
Iurie Iovu
Iurie Iovu Defender
6.77
6
Ross Graham
Ross Graham Defender
6.98
23
Krisztián Keresztes
Krisztián Keresztes Defender
7.01
2
Ryan Strain
Ryan Strain Midfielder
6.58
22
Dario Naamo
Dario Naamo
Defender84'
6.5
5
Vicko Sevelj
Vicko Sevelj Midfielder
6.85
11
Will Ferry
Will Ferry Midfielder
2
7.15
77
Johnny Russell
Johnny Russell
Attacker83'
6.46
12
Emmanuel Agyei
Emmanuel Agyei Midfielder
7.13
8
Panutche Camara
Panutche Camara
Midfielder83'
6.84
9
Zachary Sapsford
Zachary Sapsford Attacker
6.77
20
N. Farrugia
N. Farrugia Attacker
6.68
36
Max Watters
Max Watters Attacker
6.7
19
Ivan Dolcek
Ivan Dolcek
Attacker69'
6.82
Referee : Matthew McDermid

Starting XI ▼

1
Jon McCracken
Jon McCracken Goalkeeper
6.9
4
Ryan Astley
Ryan Astley Defender
6.87
5
Billy Koumetio
Billy Koumetio Defender
6.86
12
Imari Samuels
Imari Samuels Defender
6.5
22
Luke Graham
Luke Graham Defender
6.97
19
Joe Westley
Joe Westley Midfielder
6.64
20
Cameron Congreve
Cameron Congreve Midfielder
6.75
18
Charlie Reilly
Charlie Reilly
Attacker69'
6.66
21
Yan Dhanda
Yan Dhanda Midfielder
6.82
25
Scott Wright
Scott Wright Midfielder
6.63
15
Simon Murray
Simon Murray
Attacker69'
6.66
48
Ethan Hamilton
Ethan Hamilton Midfielder
6.81
11
Ashley Hay
Ashley Hay Attacker
6.79
17
Tony Yogane
Tony Yogane
Midfielder79'
6.76

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dario Naamo → Ryan Strain
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Johnny Russell → Will Ferry
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Panutche Camara → Emmanuel Agyei
5th Substitution
83'
79'
Event
Tony Yogane → Ashley Hay
4th Substitution
Event
Ryan Strain
Header / 3rd Goal
72'
Event
Will Ferry
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
70'
Event
Ivan Dolcek → Max Watters
1st Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Charlie Reilly → Cameron Congreve
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Simon Murray → Scott Wright
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Joe Westley
Goal disallowed
Event
Ryan Strain
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
34'
Event
Will Ferry
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
14'

CONCLUSION

Dundee United's 3-0 win over Dundee highlighted their superior execution, overcoming a slight possession deficit to secure a clean-sheet victory. The significant 54.3% structural deviation favored the home side, consistent with their pre-designated strength and market positioning. Absence of red cards ensured the result reflected pure performance dynamics, with efficiency holding steady. This match reinforces Dundee United's tactical edge in converting limited possession into goals, solidifying their control throughout. The outcome provides a clear benchmark for future analytical comparisons in similar fixtures.

Dundee United vs Dundee preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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