Djurgården vs Malmö FF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Tele2 Arena Fri, 17 Apr - 5:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Djurgården DJU
0 Winner 1
Malmö FF MAL
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 3 Regular Season
|
Goal
Sead Haksabanovic - 61'

CONTEXT

Djurgården hosted Malmö FF in an Allsvenskan encounter, entering as the stronger team with superior structural positioning. They dominated possession at 63% to Malmö's 37%, applying consistent pressure throughout the match. The first half concluded evenly at 0-0, maintaining balance entering the break. In the second half, Malmö FF struck once, securing a 1-0 victory despite Djurgården's control. No red cards influenced proceedings, and no notable adjustments marked the second period. This outcome represented a significant 66.7% structural deviation toward the visitors, diverging from expectations where Djurgården held advantage. Malmö's efficiency in limited opportunities proved decisive against Djurgården's inability to convert dominance into scores.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match result showed a 66.7% significant structural deviation favoring Malmö FF.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed to materialize.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments affected the result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards caused zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Klitte

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Kristensson

1st Assistant

D. Gustavsson

2nd Assistant

E. Mattsson

4th Official

Djurgården J. Honkavaara
J. Honkavaara
VS
Malmö FF M. Ramírez
M. Ramírez
2.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kalmar Rank: W
GAIS Rank: W
Öster Rank: W
IFK Göteborg Rank: D
Värnamo Rank: W
GAIS Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
GAIS Rank: W
Örgryte Rank: D
GAIS Rank: W
Häcken Rank: D
Hammarby Rank: L
Norrköping Rank: W
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 7 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Djurgården
39.43%
Draw
27.32%
Away Malmö FF
33.25%

Movement

Changes since opening
Djurgården
+39.24%
Draw
+22.23%
Malmö FF
-61.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.74
19.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Djurgården
Malmö FF
Power Score
20.74
19.75
League Position
4
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Djurgården — Opponent-weighted form score
Malmö FF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Djurgården Malmö FF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Djurgården

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Malmö FF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Djurgården ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Malmö FF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.78
16.49
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.49
37.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Djurgården +2.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Malmö FF -2.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Djurgården
Malmö FF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Djurgården ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Malmö FF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Djurgården Malmö FF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Djurgården Malmö FF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Djurgården
Malmö FF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Djurgården
vs
Malmö FF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Djurgården Malmö FF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Djurgården 0.26
Malmö FF 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Djurgården Malmö FF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Djurgården 0.05
Malmö FF 0.00
Djurgården
Malmö FF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DJU had peak pressure around 32'.
  • DJU started the game with stronger pressure.
DJU Pressure MAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DJU reached the top pressure at 32' (76.59).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Djurgården DJU Home
42 matches
Malmö FF MAL Away
Match Record
18
Wins
17
7
Draws
7
17
Losses
18
Goals
57
Goals Scored
49
49
Goals Conceded
57
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
J. Rinne
Sweden
35 J. Rinne
P. Johansson
Sweden
2 P. Johansson
M. Tenho
Finland
5 M. Tenho
J. Une-Larsson
Substitution
Sweden
4 J. Une-Larsson
M. Larsson
Sweden
24 M. Larsson
H. Finndell
Substitution
Sweden
14 H. Finndell
M. Siltanen
Finland
20 M. Siltanen
P. Åslund
Substitution
Sweden
8 P. Åslund
B. Hegland
Norway
16 B. Hegland
O. Fallenius
Substitution
Sweden
15 O. Fallenius
K. Lien
Norway
9 K. Lien
Pitch
R. Olsen
Sweden
1 R. Olsen
G. Dal Toé Busanello
Brazil
25 G. Dal Toé Busanello
C. Rosler
Norway
19 C. Rosler
P. Jansson
Sweden
18 P. Jansson
J. Larsen
Substitution
Denmark
17 J. Larsen
O. Rosengren
Sweden
7 O. Rosengren
O. Sjöstrand
Substitution
24 O. Sjöstrand
T. Lundbergh
Substitution
Sweden
47 T. Lundbergh
S. Haksabanovic
Substitution
Montenegro
29 S. Haksabanovic
T. Ali
Sweden
22 T. Ali
E. Botheim
Substitution
Norway
20 E. Botheim

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Tele2 Arena
Capacity :
32000
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Fredrik Klitte
Simon Kristensson
Daniel Gustavsson
Erik Mattsson

Statistics

Possession
DJU
60%
MAL
40%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
20 Shots 5
76 Dangerous attacks 22
63 Possession 37
10 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 20
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
5 Goal Kicks 10
7 Dribble Attempts 16
13 Throwins 20
2 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Substitutions 5
12 Goal Attempts 5
0 Assists 1
4 Injuries 6
73 Ball Safe 75

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
115 Attacks 63

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 80
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57
48 Long Passes 54
430 Successful Passes 234
29 Successful Long Passes 31
17 Key Passes 5
489 Passes 292

Defensive

41 Duels Won 47
17 Tackles 13
10 Interceptions 10
0 Saves 2

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 5
8 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

20 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Fredrik Klitte

Starting XI ▼

35
Jacob Rinne
Jacob Rinne Goalkeeper
7.21
2
Piotr Johansson
Piotr Johansson Defender
6.77
4
Jacob Une Larsson
Jacob Une Larsson Defender
7.34
3
Leon Hien
Leon Hien
Attacker89'
6.92
5
Miro Tenho
Miro Tenho Defender
7.23
24
Max Larsson
Max Larsson Defender
6.84
8
Patric Åslund
Patric Åslund Midfielder
6.95
22
Joel Asoro
Joel Asoro
Attacker75'
6.67
14
Hampus Finndell
Hampus Finndell Midfielder
6.93
6
P. Langhoff
P. Langhoff
Midfielder75'
6.47
15
Oskar Fallenius
Oskar Fallenius Midfielder
7.34
19
Jeppe Okkels
Jeppe Okkels
Attacker35'
6.72
16
B. Hegland
B. Hegland Midfielder
7.28
20
Matias Siltanen
Matias Siltanen Midfielder
7.38
9
Kristian Strømland Lien
Kristian Strømland Lien Attacker
7.55
Referee : Fredrik Klitte

Starting XI ▼

1
Robin Olsen
Robin Olsen Goalkeeper
7.42
17
Jens Stryger Larsen
Jens Stryger Larsen Defender
6.86
2
Johan Karlsson
Johan Karlsson
Defender74'
6.67
18
Pontus Jansson
Pontus Jansson Defender
7.2
19
Colin Rösler
Colin Rösler Defender
7.15
25
Busanello
Busanello Defender
6.78
7
Otto Rosengren
Otto Rosengren Midfielder
7.62
22
Taha Ali
Taha Ali Midfielder
6.76
24
Oscar Sjöstrand
Oscar Sjöstrand Midfielder
7.15
8
Arnór Sigurdsson
Arnór Sigurdsson
Midfielder74'
6.34
29
Sead Haksabanovic
Sead Haksabanovic Midfielder
6.97
4
Bleon Kurtulus
Bleon Kurtulus
Defender90+2'
6.59
47
Theodor Lundbergh
Theodor Lundbergh Midfielder
6.84
37
Adrian Skogmar
Adrian Skogmar
Midfielder58'
6.42
20
Erik Botheim
Erik Botheim Attacker
7.26
32
Daníel Gudjohnsen
Daníel Gudjohnsen
Attacker75'
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Leon Hien
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+18'
Event
Max Larsson
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+2'
Event
Bleon Kurtulus → Sead Haksabanovic
9th Substitution
Event
Leon Hien → Jacob Une Larsson
8th Substitution
89'
82'
Event
Daníel Gudjohnsen
Handball / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Joel Asoro → Patric Åslund
5th Substitution
75'
Event
P. Langhoff → Hampus Finndell
7th Substitution
75'
75'
Event
Daníel Gudjohnsen → Erik Botheim
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Arnór Sigurdsson → Oscar Sjöstrand
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Johan Karlsson → Jens Stryger Larsen
3rd Substitution
Event
Miro Tenho
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
68'
61'
Event
Sead Haksabanovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
58'
Event
Adrian Skogmar → Theodor Lundbergh
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Theodor Lundbergh
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Oscar Sjöstrand
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jeppe Okkels → Oskar Fallenius
1st Substitution
35'
Event
Piotr Johansson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'

CONCLUSION

Malmö FF claimed a 1-0 win over stronger, possession-heavy Djurgården, highlighting conversion efficiency's role. Djurgården's 63% possession yielded no goals, while Malmö capitalized on sparse chances post-halftime level score. Efficiency aligned with norms, yet the result delivered significant structural deviation and market misalignment. Absent red cards or events preserved natural flow, exposing Djurgården's finishing gaps. Malmö gains crucial points, shifting Allsvenskan dynamics as Djurgården addresses penetration issues.

Djurgården vs Malmö FF preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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