Dinamo Zagreb vs Varaždin Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion Maksimir Sun, 26 Apr - 4:45 PM

1. HNL

Dinamo Zagreb GNK

Varaždin Varaždin

Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 4:45 PM

Round 32 Regular Season

Dion Beljo - 81'

Josip Misic - 48'

Antonio Borsic - 51'

CONTEXT

Dinamo Zagreb secured a 2-1 victory over Varaždin, maintaining a goalless 0-0 scoreline at halftime before finding their breakthrough in the second half. The home side dominated possession with 64% to Varaždin's 36%, reflecting their status as the stronger team. Despite the control, the game remained tight until Dinamo converted their opportunities effectively. No red cards were issued, ensuring the result unfolded without disciplinary disruptions. The outcome demonstrated minimal structural deviation at 2.6%, aligning closely with pre-match expectations where Dinamo were heavily favored. Efficiency metrics stayed in line, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Varaždin mounted some resistance but couldn't overturn the possession disparity or capitalize on counter chances.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Dinamo Zagreb's win featured minimal structural deviation of 2.6%.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
Event impact: No major events altered the match flow.
Red card distortion: No red cards caused zero distortion to the outcome.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

No referee statistics available.

M. Kovačević

N. Šafarić

2.43

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.6

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

30 - 8 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Dinamo Zagreb

97.43%

Draw

2.38%

Varaždin

0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening

Dinamo Zagreb

+1.82%

Draw

-1.82%

Varaždin

Team Power Ranking

39.2

27.85

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Dinamo Zagreb

Varaždin

Power Score

39.2

27.85

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score

Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Zagreb Varaždin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Zagreb ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Varaždin

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Dinamo Zagreb Varaždin

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Dinamo Zagreb Varaždin

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Dinamo Zagreb

Varaždin

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Dinamo Zagreb

Varaždin

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Dinamo Zagreb Varaždin

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Dinamo Zagreb Varaždin

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Dinamo Zagreb

Varaždin

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

GNK had peak pressure around 41'.
Varaždin started the game with stronger pressure.

GNK Pressure Varaždin Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: GNK reached the top pressure at 41' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Zagreb GNK Home

41 matches

Varaždin Varaždin Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+60

Goal Difference

-60

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T16:30:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

40 D. Livaković

25 M. Valincic

36 S. Domínguez Viloria

26 S. McKenna

22 M. Vinlöf

14 M. Soldo

27 J. Mišić

7 L. Stojković

21 M. Lisica

9 D. Dijon

11 A. Hoxha

33 J. Silić

16 N. Tepšić

44 M. Barać

2 S. Lesjak

25 A. Boršić

8 T. Duvnjak

24 M. Marina

23 F. Maglica

22 L. Mamić

7 M. Vuk

10 A. Latković

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 26, 2026, 04:45 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 32 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Maksimir

Capacity :

24851

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Antonio Melnjak

Kruno Šarić

Oliver Romić

Luka Pajić

Statistics

Possession

GNK

61%

Varaždin

39%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1

1 Big Chances Created 1

6 Shots 2

52 Dangerous attacks 26

64 Possession 36

10 Corners 4

12 Free kicks 4

1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

25 Throwins 22

24 Dribble Attempts 14

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71

9 Successful Dribbles 10

5 Goal Kicks 9

1 Hit Woodwork 0

5 Substitutions 5

2 Assists 1

Attacking

100 Attacks 54

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

552 Passes 315

87 Successful Passes Percentage 76

482 Successful Passes 239

40 Long Passes 61

13 Key Passes 4

20 Successful Long Passes 24

50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

Defensive

53 Duels Won 45

22 Tackles 25

9 Interceptions 9

1 Saves 6

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 12

7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 1

4 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Antonio Melnjak

Manager ▼

M. Kovačević Coach

Starting XI ▼

Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper

6.66

Matteo Pérez Vinlöf Defender

6.95

Bruno Goda

Defender56'

6.8

Moris Valincic Defender

6.86

Niko Galesic

Defender70'

6.82

Scott McKenna Defender

7.12

Sergi Domínguez Defender

7.1

Luka Stojkovic Midfielder

7.24

Marko Soldo Midfielder

6.77

Gabriel Vidovic

Midfielder46'

7.01

Josip Misic Midfielder

7.22

Dion Beljo Attacker

7.52

Arbër Hoxha Attacker

6.98

—

Arbër Hoxha

75'

Mateo Lisica Attacker

7.01

Monsef Bakrar

Attacker56'

6.88

Substitutes ▼

Gabriel Vidovic

Midfielder46'

7.01

Bruno Goda

Defender56'

6.8

Monsef Bakrar

Attacker56'

6.88

Niko Galesic

Defender70'

6.82

—

Arbër Hoxha

75'

Bench ▼

Ivan Nevistic Goalkeeper

6.73

Ivan Filipovic Goalkeeper

6.82

Paul Tabinas Defender

6.48

Marko Zebić Defender

Sven Šunta Midfielder

6.61

Cardoso Varela Attacker

6.62

Fran Topic Attacker

6.74

Referee : Antonio Melnjak