Dinamo Zagreb vs Osijek Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Maksimir Sat, 4 Apr - 1:00 PM
1. HNL
Dinamo Zagreb GNK
7 Winner 0
Osijek Osijek
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Josip Misic - 81'
Dion Beljo - 68', 58' (P)
Gabriel Vidovic - 62', 31'
Miha Zajc - 42'
Luka Stojkovic - 21'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Dinamo Zagreb and Osijek has concluded, with the hosts securing a resounding 4-0 full-time victory. Dinamo Zagreb established their dominance early, taking a commanding 3-0 lead into the half-time break and effectively putting the game out of reach. Heading into the fixture, Dinamo Zagreb were heavy favorites, boasting a 76% pre-match win probability compared to a 16.1% chance for a draw and just 7.9% for an Osijek upset. The final outcome perfectly aligned with these pre-match market expectations. However, the sheer margin of victory represented a significant 24% positive deviation in favor of Dinamo Zagreb, indicating they outperformed even their strong pre-game projections. The hosts dictated the tempo throughout the contest, commanding 66% of the possession while restricting Osijek to just 34%. Although expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to further validate the underlying performance, Dinamo Zagreb's offensive execution was highly effective. Their scoring efficiency shifted directly in line with their overall control of the match. The fixture was contested cleanly from start to finish, with no red cards issued to either side to impact the tactical flow.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Zagreb showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Vukančić

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Filip Cindrić

4th Official

S. Rođak-Karšić

2nd Assistant

K. Šarić

1st Assistant

Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
VS
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
2.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.84
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 61 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 W
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 W
Gorica Rank: 63 W
Varaždin Rank: 64 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 D
Gorica Rank: 60 D
Istra 1961 Rank: 65 W
Vukovar Rank: 55 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 60 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
45
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
45 - 15 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo Zagreb
76.01%
Draw
16.11%
Away Osijek
7.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.71
61.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Zagreb
Osijek
Power Score
79.71
61.9
League Position
1
9
Global Rank
64
403

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Zagreb Osijek

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.52
23.24
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.24
46.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo Zagreb +2.37 Efficiency Index
vs
Osijek -2.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Osijek
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Zagreb Osijek
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb Osijek
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Osijek
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Osijek
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Zagreb Osijek
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Zagreb 0.36
Osijek 0.39
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb Osijek
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Zagreb 0.00
Osijek 0.09
Dinamo Zagreb
Osijek
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 72 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Zagreb GNK Home
72 matches
Osijek Osijek Away
Match Record
45
Wins
12
15
Draws
15
12
Losses
45
Goals
122
Goals Scored
49
49
Goals Conceded
122
+73
Goal Difference
-73

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:02:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
I. Filipović
Croatia
44 I. Filipović
N. Galesic
Substitution
Croatia
15 N. Galesic
S. Domínguez Viloria
Spain
36 S. Domínguez Viloria
S. McKenna
Scotland
26 S. McKenna
B. Goda
Croatia
3 B. Goda
L. Stojković
Croatia
7 L. Stojković
J. Mišić
Substitution
Croatia
27 J. Mišić
M. Zajc
Substitution
Slovenia
8 M. Zajc
M. Bakrar
Substitution
Algeria
71 M. Bakrar
D. Dijon
Croatia
9 D. Dijon
G. Vidović
Substitution
Croatia
10 G. Vidović
Pitch
M. Malenica
Croatia
31 M. Malenica
D. Bukvić
Croatia
39 D. Bukvić
J. Mersinaj
Substitution
Albania
5 J. Mersinaj
L. Jelenić
Substitution
Croatia
26 L. Jelenić
R. Guedes Borges
Brazil
42 R. Guedes Borges
V. Bubanja
Montenegro
21 V. Bubanja
O. Petrusenko
Ukraine
16 O. Petrusenko
?. Mikolčić
Substitution
Croatia
8 ?. Mikolčić
N. Omerović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 N. Omerović
A. Jakupovic
Substitution
Austria
17 A. Jakupovic
S. Akere
Substitution
Nigeria
57 S. Akere

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Maksimir
Capacity :
24851
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Filip Cindrić
Ivan Vukančić
Sanja Rođak-Karšić
Kruno Šarić

Statistics

Possession
GNK
64%
Osijek
36%

Top Statistics

7 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
27 Shots 7
74 Dangerous attacks 18
66 Possession 34
11 Corners 0
6 Free kicks 12

Match Overview

25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
25 Throwins 12
3 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Assists 0
3 Goal Kicks 7
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Dribble Attempts 5
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

101 Attacks 53

Possession

89 Successful Passes Percentage 83
473 Successful Passes 232
537 Passes 281
20 Key Passes 7
33 Long Passes 17

Defensive

13 Interceptions 13
2 Saves 5
8 Tackles 20
29 Duels Won 45

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

44
Ivan Filipovic
Ivan Filipovic Goalkeeper
3
Bruno Goda
Bruno Goda Defender
15
Niko Galesic
Niko Galesic Defender
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic
Defender72'
26
Scott McKenna
Scott McKenna Defender
36
Sergi Domínguez
Sergi Domínguez Defender
7
Luka Stojkovic
Luka Stojkovic Midfielder
8
Miha Zajc
Miha Zajc Midfielder
14
Marko Soldo
Marko Soldo
Midfielder72'
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic Midfielder
41
Sven Šunta
Sven Šunta
Midfielder83'
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Attacker
2
10
Gabriel Vidovic
Gabriel Vidovic Attacker
2
11
Arbër Hoxha
Arbër Hoxha
Attacker65'
71
Monsef Bakrar
Monsef Bakrar Attacker
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica
Attacker65'
Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica Goalkeeper
5
Jon Mersinaj
Jon Mersinaj Defender
49
Ivano Kolarik
Ivano Kolarik
Defender77'
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic Defender
33
Emin Hasic
Emin Hasic
Defender46'
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Defender
42
Renan Guedes
Renan Guedes Defender
8
Simun Mikolcic
Simun Mikolcic Midfielder
99
Tonio Teklic
Tonio Teklic
Midfielder46'
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic Midfielder
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Midfielder
21
Vladan Bubanja
Vladan Bubanja Midfielder
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere Midfielder
34
Anton Matkovic
Anton Matkovic
Attacker46'
17
Arnel Jakupovic
Arnel Jakupovic Attacker
38
David Colina
David Colina
Defender63'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sven Šunta → Josip Misic
10th Substitution
83'
Event
Josip Misic
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
81'
77'
Event
Ivano Kolarik → Jon Mersinaj
9th Substitution
Event
Moris Valincic → Niko Galesic
8th Substitution
72'
Event
Marko Soldo → Miha Zajc
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Dion Beljo
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
68'
Event
Arbër Hoxha → Gabriel Vidovic
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Mateo Lisica → Monsef Bakrar
6th Substitution
65'
63'
Event
David Colina → Arnel Jakupovic
4th Substitution
Event
Gabriel Vidovic
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
62'
Event
Dion Beljo
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
58'
46'
Event
Anton Matkovic → Samuel Akere
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Tonio Teklic → Simun Mikolcic
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Emin Hasic → Luka Jelenic
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Miha Zajc
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
42'
Event
Gabriel Vidovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
31'
Event
Var
26'
Event
Luka Stojkovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
21'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dinamo Zagreb exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Osijek preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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