Dinamo Zagreb vs Hajduk Split Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Maksimir Sat, 9 May - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Dinamo Zagreb GNK
2 Winner 0
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
Full Time Sat, 9 May 2:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Dion Beljo - 65'
Monsef Bakrar - 22'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Dinamo Zagreb claimed a convincing 2-0 win against Hajduk Split in this fiercely contested derby. The home team struck first in the opening half, leading 1-0 at halftime, and maintained control throughout with 55% possession compared to Hajduk's 45%. Dinamo's disciplined defense ensured a clean sheet, while their clinical finishing sealed the points. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing the match to proceed as a showcase of Dinamo's superiority as the stronger side. Hajduk pushed for an equalizer but lacked the penetration to trouble the hosts significantly. The result underscores Dinamo's dominance in key metrics, with the final scoreline reflecting their overall command of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal 2.2% structural deviation favored Dinamo Zagreb.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No notable events or adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Pavlešić

Croatia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Janić

1st Assistant

Croatia

F. Krznarić

2nd Assistant

Croatia

Z. Lovrić

4th Official

Croatia

League averages

1. HNL Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.53
Yellow cards / match 3.23
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.34
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
VS
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
2.57
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gorica Rank: 62 W
Varaždin Rank: 66 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 63 W
Rijeka Rank: 69 D
Vukovar Rank: 56 W
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: 66 W
Rijeka Rank: 69 D
Osijek Rank: 63 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 D
Gorica Rank: 62 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 63 W
34
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
34 - 22 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo Zagreb
97.84%
Draw
1.92%
Away Hajduk Split
0.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
81.67
72.2
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Zagreb
Hajduk Split
Power Score
81.67
72.2
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
50
156

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Zagreb Hajduk Split

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.82
13.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.22
36.82
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo Zagreb +2.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Hajduk Split -2.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Hajduk Split
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Zagreb Hajduk Split
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb Hajduk Split
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Zagreb
Hajduk Split
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo Zagreb
vs
Hajduk Split
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Zagreb Hajduk Split
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Zagreb 0.26
Hajduk Split 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Zagreb Hajduk Split
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Zagreb 0.00
Hajduk Split 0.03
Dinamo Zagreb
Hajduk Split
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GNK had peak pressure around 69'.
  • GNK started the game with stronger pressure.
GNK Pressure Hajduk Split Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GNK reached the top pressure at 69' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 72 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Zagreb GNK Home
72 matches
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Away
Match Record
34
Wins
16
22
Draws
22
16
Losses
34
Goals
105
Goals Scored
62
62
Goals Conceded
105
+43
Goal Difference
-43

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:02:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Livaković
Croatia
40 D. Livaković
M. Valincic
Croatia
25 M. Valincic
N. Galesic
Croatia
15 N. Galesic
M. Zebić
Croatia
42 M. Zebić
B. Goda
Croatia
3 B. Goda
J. Mišić
Substitution
Croatia
27 J. Mišić
M. Zajc
Substitution
Slovenia
8 M. Zajc
M. Bakrar
Substitution
Algeria
71 M. Bakrar
L. Stojković
Substitution
Croatia
7 L. Stojković
A. Hoxha
Substitution
Kosovo
11 A. Hoxha
D. Dijon
Croatia
9 D. Dijon
Pitch
T. Silić
Croatia
33 T. Silić
D. Melnjak
Substitution
Croatia
17 D. Melnjak
R. Raçi
Kosovo
14 R. Raçi
D. Maresic
Austria
15 D. Maresic
R. Brajković
Substitution
Croatia
28 R. Brajković
A. Pajaziti
Albania
4 A. Pajaziti
N. Sigur
Substitution
Croatia
8 N. Sigur
A. Sanyang
Substitution
Gambia
24 A. Sanyang
R. Pukstas
United States
21 R. Pukstas
I. Almena Horcajo
Substitution
Spain
30 I. Almena Horcajo
M. Livaja
Croatia
10 M. Livaja

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Maksimir
Capacity :
24851
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ivan Janić
Filip Krznarić
Zdenko Lovrić
Patrik Pavlešić

Statistics

Possession
GNK
56%
Hajduk Split
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 0
65 Dangerous attacks 39
55 Possession 45
3 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Assists 0
24 Throwins 18
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
5 Goal Kicks 12
17 Dribble Attempts 7
9 Successful Dribbles 3
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

99 Attacks 79
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

522 Passes 432
47 Long Passes 39
77 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
470 Successful Passes 366
36 Successful Long Passes 18
90 Successful Passes Percentage 85

Defensive

12 Tackles 12
6 Interceptions 5
37 Duels Won 34
2 Saves 7

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 5
4 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

13 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

40
Dominik Livakovic
Dominik Livakovic Goalkeeper
3
Bruno Goda
Bruno Goda Defender
15
Niko Galesic
Niko Galesic Defender
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic Defender
42
Marko Zebić
Marko Zebić Defender
7
Luka Stojkovic
Luka Stojkovic Midfielder
14
Marko Soldo
Marko Soldo
Midfielder74'
8
Miha Zajc
Miha Zajc Midfielder
4
Ismaël Bennacer
Ismaël Bennacer
Midfielder59'
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic Midfielder
30
Fran Topic
Fran Topic
Attacker90+2'
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Attacker
11
Arbër Hoxha
Arbër Hoxha Attacker
10
Gabriel Vidovic
Gabriel Vidovic
Midfielder58'
71
Monsef Bakrar
Monsef Bakrar Attacker
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica
Attacker58'
Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
14
Ron Raci
Ron Raci Defender
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Defender
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak Defender
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic
Defender76'
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Defender
38
Luka Hodak
Luka Hodak
Defender46'
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur Midfielder
26
Adam Guram
Adam Guram
Midfielder85'
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
24
Abdoulie Sanyang
Abdoulie Sanyang Midfielder
9
Ante Rebić
Ante Rebić
Attacker62'
30
Iker Almena
Iker Almena Midfielder
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego
Attacker76'
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fran Topic → Josip Misic
10th Substitution
90+2'
87'
Event
Ante Rebić
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Adam Guram → Niko Sigur
9th Substitution
76'
Event
Michele Sego → Iker Almena
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Simun Hrgovic → Dario Melnjak
7th Substitution
Event
Marko Soldo → Luka Stojkovic
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Dion Beljo
Header / 2nd Goal
65'
62'
Event
Ante Rebić → Abdoulie Sanyang
5th Substitution
Event
Ismaël Bennacer → Miha Zajc
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Gabriel Vidovic → Arbër Hoxha
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Mateo Lisica → Monsef Bakrar
2nd Substitution
58'
58'
Event
Niko Sigur
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Luka Hodak → Roko Brajkovic
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Bruno Goda
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Monsef Bakrar
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
22'
Event
Monsef Bakrar
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard
15'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Vidovic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Dion Drena Beljo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Update Update
Fran Topic replaces Josip Misic.
90
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Goda takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Marko Soldo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Bennacer takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Marko Soldo takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ante Rebic receives a yellow card.
85
Update Update
Adam Guram replaces Niko Sigur.
82
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Lisica takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Michele Sego comes on for Iker Almena.
76
Update Update
Simun Hrgovic is on, and Dario Melnjak is off.
75
Update Update
Marko Soldo comes on for Luka Stojkovic.
72
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Lisica's left-footed shot is saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Luka Stojkovic's right-footed shot is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Marko Livaja takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
65
Update Update
Dion Drena Beljo scores with a header.
62
Attempt Attempt
Luka Stojkovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
62
Update Update
Ante Rebic is on, and Abdoulie Sanyang is off.
59
Update Update
Mateo Lisica comes on for Monsef Bakrar.
58
Update Update
Gabriel Vidovic comes on for Arber Hoxha.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niko Sigur receives a yellow card.
58
Update Update
Ismael Bennacer comes on for Miha Zajc.
51
Attempt Attempt
Iker Almena takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Dion Drena Beljo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Sanyang takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Luka Hodak comes on for Roko Brajkovic.
43
Attempt Attempt
Luka Stojkovic takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Sanyang has a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Monsef Bakrar takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
22
Attempt Attempt
Arber Hoxha takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Luka Stojkovic's right-footed shot is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Monsef Bakrar takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Dinamo Zagreb's 2-0 triumph over Hajduk Split was a textbook display of home dominance, aligning perfectly with their status as the stronger team. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they controlled possession at 55% and converted opportunities efficiently without concessions. The clean sheet highlighted defensive solidity, while Hajduk's efforts fell short against a resolute backline. This minimal-deviation result reinforces Dinamo's consistency, providing a solid foundation as they build momentum in the campaign.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Hajduk Split preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

1. HNL, Croatia View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ