Dinamo Moskva vs Sochi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VTB Arena (Moskva) Sun, 26 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Dinamo Moskva DMO
2 Winner 0
Sochi Sochi
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu - 52'
K. Tyukavin - 11'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Dinamo Moskva claimed a 2-0 victory over Sochi, taking a 1-0 lead into halftime and adding a second goal after the break. Despite possessing the ball only 47% of the time compared to Sochi's 53%, Dinamo proved more effective in front of goal, capitalizing on limited chances while Sochi failed to convert their territorial advantage. No red cards were issued, ensuring the match proceeded without disciplinary interruptions. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Dinamo's win featured a significant structural deviation of 100%, aligning with market expectations. Efficiency levels stayed in line with norms, and the absence of xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis. The game lacked major second-half adjustments, allowing Dinamo's organization to prevail throughout. This result reinforces their defensive solidity and opportunistic attack.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant structural deviation of 100% favoring Dinamo Moskva.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market view.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments notably impacted the result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Novikov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Lunev

1st Assistant

A. Bolotenkov

2nd Assistant

V. Shamara

4th Official

Dinamo Moskva P. Alpatov
P. Alpatov
VS
Sochi I. Osinkin
I. Osinkin
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.93
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rubin Kazan Rank: L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: D
Akron Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: D
Zenit Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Rostov Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Rubin Kazan Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: L
Krasnodar Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Sochi
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.78
19.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Moskva
Sochi
Power Score
23.78
19.53
League Position
8
16
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Moskva Sochi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.15
22.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.74
34.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo Moskva +1.26 Efficiency Index
vs
Sochi -1.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Moskva
Sochi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Moskva Sochi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Moskva Sochi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Moskva
Sochi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo Moskva
vs
Sochi
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Moskva Sochi
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Moskva 0.34
Sochi 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Moskva Sochi
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Moskva 0.00
Sochi 0.05
Dinamo Moskva
Sochi
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Sochi had peak pressure around 92'.
  • DMO started the game with stronger pressure.
DMO Pressure Sochi Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Sochi reached the top pressure at 92' (62.38).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Moskva DMO Home
11 matches
Sochi Sochi Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
3
Goals
16
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
16
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:04:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
K. Rasulov
Russia
40 K. Rasulov
M. Osipenko
Russia
55 M. Osipenko
M. Majstorovic
Substitution
Serbia
5 M. Majstorovic
D. Loiola da Silva
Brazil
57 D. Loiola da Silva
J. Cáceres
Argentina
4 J. Cáceres
L. Chávez Magallón
Substitution
Mexico
24 L. Chávez Magallón
D. Glebov
Substitution
Russia
15 D. Glebov
D. Skopintsev
Russia
7 D. Skopintsev
A. Gomes Lourenço
Substitution
Brazil
11 A. Gomes Lourenço
K. Tyukavin
Substitution
Russia
70 K. Tyukavin
J. de Souza Mares
Brazil
10 J. de Souza Mares
Pitch
A. Degtev
Russia
35 A. Degtev
A. Makarchuk
Russia
17 A. Makarchuk
M. Alves Santos
Brazil
33 M. Alves Santos
A. Soldatenkov
Russia
3 A. Soldatenkov
R. Magal
Russia
28 R. Magal
K. Kravtsov
Russia
14 K. Kravtsov
M. Mukhin
Substitution
Russia
16 M. Mukhin
K. Zaika
Substitution
Russia
27 K. Zaika
M. Ignatov
Substitution
Russia
8 M. Ignatov
V. Ilyin
Substitution
Russia
98 V. Ilyin
R. Ezhov
Substitution
Russia
29 R. Ezhov

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium :
VTB Arena (Moskva)
Capacity :
26319
Attendance :
10978
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Nikita Novikov
Aleksey Lunev
Andrey Bolotenkov
Vladimir Shamara

Statistics

Possession
DMO
49%
Sochi
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
14 Shots 9
41 Dangerous attacks 61
47 Possession 53
5 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
12 Goal Attempts 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
87 Ball Safe 83
18 Successful Headers 17
19 Throwins 20
2 Assists 0
21 Dribble Attempts 17
52 Successful Dribbles Percentage 59
11 Successful Dribbles 10
12 Goal Kicks 3

Attacking

92 Attacks 96

Possession

326 Successful Passes 356
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
78 Successful Passes Percentage 78
70 Long Passes 58
417 Passes 457
32 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

16 Tackles 17
1 Saves 7
13 Interceptions 10
57 Duels Won 57

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 20
7 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

13 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Nikita Novikov

Starting XI ▼

40
Kurban Rasulov
Kurban Rasulov Goalkeeper
6.69
5
M. Majstorović
M. Majstorović Defender
6.73
13
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Attacker46'
6.75
55
Maksim Osipenko
Maksim Osipenko Defender
6.98
57
David Ricardo
David Ricardo Defender
6.95
4
Juan José Cáceres
Juan José Cáceres Midfielder
6.92
7
Dmitri Skopintsev
Dmitri Skopintsev Midfielder
6.71
15
Danil Glebov
Danil Glebov Midfielder
6.71
60
Timofey Marinkin
Timofey Marinkin
Midfielder80'
6.61
24
Luis Chávez
Luis Chávez Midfielder
6.63
74
Daniil Fomin
Daniil Fomin
Midfielder62'
6.79
10
Bitello
Bitello Attacker
7.5
11
Arthur Gomes
Arthur Gomes Attacker
6.89
91
Y. Gladyshev
Y. Gladyshev
Attacker71'
6.61
70
K. Tyukavin
K. Tyukavin Attacker
7.02
33
Ivan Sergeev
Ivan Sergeev
Attacker62'
6.78
Referee : Nikita Novikov

Starting XI ▼

35
Aleksandr Degtev
Aleksandr Degtev Goalkeeper
6.81
3
A. Soldatenkov
A. Soldatenkov Defender
6.7
17
Artem Makarchuk
Artem Makarchuk Defender
6.58
33
Marcelo Alves
Marcelo Alves Defender
6.62
14
Kirill Kravtsov
Kirill Kravtsov Midfielder
6.54
16
Maksim Mukhin
Maksim Mukhin Midfielder
6.63
20
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Midfielder59'
6.7
27
Kirill Zaika
Kirill Zaika Midfielder
6.5
82
Sergey Volkov
Sergey Volkov
Defender82'
6.42
28
Ruslan Magal
Ruslan Magal Midfielder
6.45
8
Mikhail Ignatov
Mikhail Ignatov Attacker
6.74
7
Anton Zinkovskiy
Anton Zinkovskiy
Midfielder59'
6.57
29
Roman Ezhov
Roman Ezhov Attacker
6.51
45
François Kamano
François Kamano
Attacker59'
6.7
98
Vladimir Iljin
Vladimir Iljin Attacker
6.78
9
Zakhar Fedorov
Zakhar Fedorov
Attacker64'
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Y. Gladyshev
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Daniil Fomin
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Maksim Osipenko
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
87'
82'
Event
Sergey Volkov → Kirill Zaika
10th Substitution
Event
Timofey Marinkin → Danil Glebov
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Y. Gladyshev → Arthur Gomes
8th Substitution
71'
64'
Event
Zakhar Fedorov → Vladimir Iljin
7th Substitution
Event
Ivan Sergeev → K. Tyukavin
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Daniil Fomin → Luis Chávez
5th Substitution
62'
59'
Event
François Kamano → Roman Ezhov
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Dmitriy Vasiljev → Maksim Mukhin
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Anton Zinkovskiy → Mikhail Ignatov
4th Substitution
Event
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
52'
Event
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu → M. Majstorović
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Kirill Kravtsov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
Event
A. Soldatenkov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
K. Tyukavin
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
11'

CONCLUSION

Dinamo Moskva's 2-0 triumph over Sochi exemplified control despite modest possession, leading 1-0 at halftime and shutting out the visitors. The significant 100% structural deviation underscored their superiority as the pre-identified stronger side, with market alignment confirming the expected hierarchy. Efficiency held steady without shifts, and the lack of red cards or events preserved natural flow. Though xG absence prevents precise chance evaluation, Dinamo's clinical edge and resilience highlight tactical discipline. This clean-sheet win strengthens their position, reflecting balanced dominance across phases.

Dinamo Moskva vs Sochi preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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