Dinamo Moskva vs Rubin Kazan Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VTB Arena (Moskva) Wed, 22 Apr - 4:45 PM
Premier League
Dinamo Moskva DMO
0 Winner 1
Rubin Kazan RKA
Full Time Wed, 22 Apr 4:45 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
|
Goal
Jacques Siwe - 19'

CONTEXT

Rubin Kazan pulled off a gritty 0-1 victory over Dinamo Moskva at their home ground, defying the hosts' 63% possession dominance. The decisive goal came early in the first half, giving Rubin a 0-1 halftime lead that they defended resolutely as Dinamo pushed forward without breakthroughs. Despite Dinamo's territorial control, Rubin's clinical edge and compact defending frustrated the home side's attacks. Identified as the stronger team beforehand, Rubin capitalized on limited opportunities, exposing Dinamo's wastefulness in the final third. No red cards disrupted play, ensuring the outcome reflected tactical discipline over sheer volume. This result represents a significant structural deviation, fully aligning with pre-match market sentiments while highlighting Rubin's efficiency in a low-scoring affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rubin Kazan secured a significant 100% deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market views.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or major events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Karasev

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Lunev

1st Assistant

N. Novikov

4th Official

A. Ermilov

2nd Assistant

Dinamo Moskva P. Alpatov
P. Alpatov
VS
Rubin Kazan F. Cebrián
F. Cebrián
1.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: D
Akron Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: D
Zenit Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron Rank: D
Orenburg Rank: D
Sochi Rank: W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: W
Krasnodar Rank: W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 15 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Rubin Kazan
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.99
30.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Moskva
Rubin Kazan
Power Score
27.99
30.01
League Position
8
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Rubin Kazan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Moskva Rubin Kazan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rubin Kazan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rubin Kazan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.59
40.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.14
26.59
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo Moskva -1.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Rubin Kazan +1.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Moskva
Rubin Kazan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rubin Kazan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Moskva Rubin Kazan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Moskva Rubin Kazan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Moskva
Rubin Kazan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo Moskva
vs
Rubin Kazan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Moskva Rubin Kazan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Moskva 0.25
Rubin Kazan 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Moskva Rubin Kazan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Moskva 0.03
Rubin Kazan 0.00
Dinamo Moskva
Rubin Kazan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RKA had peak pressure around 7'.
  • RKA started the game with stronger pressure.
DMO Pressure RKA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RKA reached the top pressure at 7' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Moskva DMO Home
41 matches
Rubin Kazan RKA Away
Match Record
9
Wins
17
15
Draws
15
17
Losses
9
Goals
38
Goals Scored
53
53
Goals Conceded
38
-15
Goal Difference
+15

Data last updated: 2026-04-23T00:01:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
I. Leshchuk
Russia
31 I. Leshchuk
J. Cáceres
Argentina
4 J. Cáceres
N. Marichal
Uruguay
2 N. Marichal
D. Loiola da Silva
Brazil
57 D. Loiola da Silva
D. Skopintsev
Russia
7 D. Skopintsev
D. Glebov
Substitution
Russia
15 D. Glebov
D. Fomin
Substitution
Russia
74 D. Fomin
Y. Gladyshev
Substitution
Russia
91 Y. Gladyshev
A. Miranchuk
Substitution
Russia
21 A. Miranchuk
J. de Souza Mares
Substitution
Brazil
10 J. de Souza Mares
K. Tyukavin
Russia
70 K. Tyukavin
Pitch
E. Staver
Russia
38 E. Staver
D. Maldonado Munguía
Honduras
3 D. Maldonado Munguía
I. Vujačić
Montenegro
5 I. Vujačić
N. Lobov
Russia
98 N. Lobov
I. Rozhkov
Substitution
Russia
51 I. Rozhkov
I. Saavedra Pino
Substitution
Chile
7 I. Saavedra Pino
V. Hodža
Croatia
22 V. Hodža
A. Arroyo Córdoba
Colombia
12 A. Arroyo Córdoba
R. Bezrukov
Substitution
Russia
23 R. Bezrukov
J. Siwe
Substitution
France
43 J. Siwe
N. Gripshi
Substitution
Albania
11 N. Gripshi

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 22, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
VTB Arena (Moskva)
Capacity :
26319
Attendance :
11795
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sergey Karasev
Aleksey Lunev
Nikita Novikov
Aleksey Ermilov

Statistics

Possession
DMO
60%
RKA
40%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 5
55 Dangerous attacks 37
63 Possession 37
8 Corners 7
20 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

98 Ball Safe 82
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 3
12 Goal Attempts 9
15 Successful Headers 19
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
13 Dribble Attempts 14
20 Throwins 14
7 Successful Dribbles 6
7 Goal Kicks 9
0 Assists 1

Attacking

111 Attacks 75
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

459 Successful Passes 220
63 Long Passes 74
544 Passes 322
31 Successful Long Passes 30
84 Successful Passes Percentage 68
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

55 Duels Won 48
3 Saves 3
16 Tackles 10
4 Interceptions 10

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 15
6 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
14 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Karasev

Starting XI ▼

31
Igor Leshchuk
Igor Leshchuk Goalkeeper
6.51
2
Nicolás Marichal
Nicolás Marichal Defender
7.05
4
Juan José Cáceres
Juan José Cáceres Defender
6.92
7
Dmitri Skopintsev
Dmitri Skopintsev Defender
6.65
57
David Ricardo
David Ricardo Defender
6.67
10
Bitello
Bitello Midfielder
7.5
17
U. Babaev
U. Babaev
Attacker74'
6.74
15
Danil Glebov
Danil Glebov Midfielder
6.71
60
Timofey Marinkin
Timofey Marinkin
Midfielder52'
6.59
21
Anton Miranchuk
Anton Miranchuk Midfielder
7.01
33
Ivan Sergeev
Ivan Sergeev
Attacker64'
6.78
74
Daniil Fomin
Daniil Fomin Midfielder
6.8
24
Luis Chávez
Luis Chávez
Midfielder64'
6.63
91
Y. Gladyshev
Y. Gladyshev Midfielder
6.66
11
Arthur Gomes
Arthur Gomes
Attacker52'
6.92
70
K. Tyukavin
K. Tyukavin Attacker
7.02
Referee : Sergey Karasev

Starting XI ▼

38
Evgeniy Staver
Evgeniy Staver Goalkeeper
6.81
3
Denil Maldonado
Denil Maldonado Defender
6.76
5
Igor Vujacic
Igor Vujacic Defender
6.84
98
Nikita Lobov
Nikita Lobov Defender
6.72
7
Ignacio Saavedra
Ignacio Saavedra Midfielder
6.82
70
Dmitriy Kabutov
Dmitriy Kabutov
Defender87'
6.76
12
Anderson Arroyo
Anderson Arroyo Midfielder
6.88
22
Veldin Hodza
Veldin Hodza Midfielder
6.72
51
Ilya Rozhkov
Ilya Rozhkov Midfielder
6.69
4
Konstantin Nizhegorodov
Konstantin Nizhegorodov
Defender87'
6.73
11
Nazmi Gripshi
Nazmi Gripshi Attacker
7.05
44
Daniil Kuznetsov
Daniil Kuznetsov
Midfielder68'
6.59
23
Ruslan Bezrukov
Ruslan Bezrukov Attacker
6.61
14
Daler Kuzyaev
Daler Kuzyaev
Midfielder68'
6.7
43
Jacques Siwe
Jacques Siwe Attacker
6.72
59
Daniil Motorin
Daniil Motorin
Midfielder77'
6.29

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Dmitriy Kabutov → Ignacio Saavedra
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Konstantin Nizhegorodov → Ilya Rozhkov
10th Substitution
77'
Event
Daniil Motorin → Jacques Siwe
8th Substitution
Event
U. Babaev → Bitello
7th Substitution
74'
68'
Event
Daniil Kuznetsov → Nazmi Gripshi
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Daler Kuzyaev → Ruslan Bezrukov
6th Substitution
Event
Ivan Sergeev → Anton Miranchuk
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Luis Chávez → Daniil Fomin
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Arthur Gomes → Y. Gladyshev
1st Substitution
52'
Event
Timofey Marinkin → Danil Glebov
2nd Substitution
52'
1ST-HALF
Event
Nicolás Marichal
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
26'
Event
Denil Maldonado
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
19'
Event
Jacques Siwe
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Rubin Kazan's 0-1 triumph underscores their pre-match superiority, turning defensive resilience into a hard-fought win despite Dinamo's possession edge. The away side's first-half strike proved match-defining, as they absorbed pressure masterfully post-interval. Dinamo's failure to capitalize on 63% ball control reveals deeper inefficiencies, while Rubin's precision rewarded their game plan. With no disruptions from cards or adjustments, the clean contest validated market confidence in the visitors. This outcome boosts Rubin's momentum, challenging Dinamo to refine their conversion in future outings.

Dinamo Moskva vs Rubin Kazan preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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