Dinamo Moskva vs Orenburg Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia

VTB Arena (Moskva) Sat, 4 Apr - 2:30 PM

Premier League

Dinamo Moskva DMO

3 – 3

Orenburg Orenburg

Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:30 PM

Round 23 Regular Season

Bitello - 61'

K. Tyukavin - 39'

Fahd Moufi - 29' (Own Goal)

Du Queiroz - 66', 51'

Fahd Moufi - 45+2'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Orenburg securing a 3-1 full-time victory on the road against Dinamo Moskva. Heading into the fixture, Dinamo Moskva was widely regarded as the stronger team. Therefore, Orenburg’s decisive win represents a significant deviation from standard expectations. Interestingly, the pre-match market probabilities were completely flat, showing exactly zero for a home win, draw, or away win. Because of this neutral baseline, the final outcome was technically flagged as market aligned. Despite suffering the defeat, Dinamo Moskva comfortably controlled the tempo with 64% of the possession, leaving Orenburg with just 36% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was entirely unavailable for this contest, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome was consistent with the underlying chance creation. Nevertheless, post-match data indicates that the overall efficiency shift was simply in line with the flow of the game. The match proceeded without any severe disciplinary incidents, as no red cards were shown to either squad. Ultimately, Orenburg efficiently capitalized on their limited possession to secure a notable, significant upset over the favored hosts.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Orenburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Other match officials

A. Bogdanov

2nd Assistant

I. Demeshko

1st Assistant

A. Sagdiev

4th Official

P. Alpatov

I. Akhmetzyanov

1.25

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.92

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

6 - 1 - 4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Dinamo Moskva

Draw

Orenburg

Team Power Ranking

70.06

52.05

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Dinamo Moskva

Orenburg

Power Score

70.06

52.05

League Position

Global Rank

185

686

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score

Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Moskva Orenburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Dinamo Moskva

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Orenburg

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Orenburg

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.23

34.03

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

34.03

30.23

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Dinamo Moskva -0.44 Efficiency Index

Orenburg +0.44 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Dinamo Moskva

Orenburg

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Orenburg

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Dinamo Moskva Orenburg

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Dinamo Moskva Orenburg

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Dinamo Moskva

Orenburg

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Dinamo Moskva

Orenburg

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Dinamo Moskva Orenburg

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Dinamo Moskva Orenburg

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Dinamo Moskva

Orenburg

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Moskva DMO Home

11 matches

Orenburg Orenburg Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-5

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

40 K. Rasulov

56 L. Zaydenzal

6 R. Fernández Urbieta

57 D. Loiola da Silva

7 D. Skopintsev

60 T. Marinkin

44 R. Dias

13 N. Ngamaleu

10 J. de Souza Mares

33 I. Sergeev

70 K. Tyukavin

1 B. Ovsyannikov

3 D. Vedernikov

4 D. Khotulev

6 J. Palacios Santos

18 F. Moufi

57 E. Bolotov

78 R. Kul

16 J. Thompson

8 D. Puebla

27 R. Golybin

30 G. Guzina

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 04, 2026, 02:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 23 · Regular Season

Stadium :

VTB Arena (Moskva)

Capacity :

26319

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Aleksandr Bogdanov

Igor Demeshko

Artur Sagdiev

Statistics

Possession

DMO

59%

Orenburg

41%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3

0 Big Chances Created 2

4 Shots 3

47 Dangerous attacks 45

64 Possession 36

3 Corners 1

20 Free kicks 6

2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

2 Assists 2

33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53

22 Throwins 19

2 Successful Dribbles 10

17 Successful Headers 16

5 Substitutions 5

2 Injuries 2

7 Goal Kicks 7

98 Ball Safe 68

10 Goal Attempts 5

6 Dribble Attempts 19

Attacking

102 Attacks 82

Possession

65 Long Passes 56

82 Successful Passes Percentage 75

545 Passes 298

446 Successful Passes 223

29 Successful Long Passes 32

45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57

Defensive

0 Saves 3

10 Interceptions 9

58 Duels Won 46

22 Tackles 13

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 13

3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 3

7 Fouls 17

Lineup

Manager ▼

P. Alpatov Coach

Starting XI ▼

Kurban Rasulov Goalkeeper

Roberto Fernandez Defender

Nicolás Marichal

Defender64'

Dmitri Skopintsev Defender

Leon Zaydenzal Defender

David Ricardo Defender

Bitello Midfielder

Y. Gladyshev

Attacker71'

Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu Midfielder

Arthur Gomes

Attacker57'

Ivan Sergeev Midfielder

U. Babaev

Attacker57'

Rubens Midfielder

Timofey Marinkin Midfielder

Anton Miranchuk

Midfielder64'

K. Tyukavin Attacker

Substitutes ▼

U. Babaev

Attacker57'

Arthur Gomes

Attacker57'

Anton Miranchuk

Midfielder64'

Nicolás Marichal

Defender64'

Y. Gladyshev

Attacker71'

Bench ▼

Igor Leshchuk Goalkeeper

Andrei Kudravets Goalkeeper

Juan José Cáceres Defender

M. Majstorović Defender

Maksim Osipenko Defender

Danil Glebov Midfielder

Luis Chávez Midfielder