Dinamo Moskva vs Krasnodar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VTB Arena (Moskva) Mon, 11 May - 5:00 PM
Premier League
Dinamo Moskva DMO
2 Winner 1
Krasnodar KRA
Full Time Mon, 11 May 5:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Ivan Sergeev - 90+3'
K. Tyukavin - 48'
Goal
|
Goal
Diego Costa - 32'

CONTEXT

Dinamo Moskva pulled off a dramatic 2-1 victory over Krasnodar in the Russian Premier League, defying expectations as the stronger visitors. Krasnodar led 1-0 at halftime, dominating possession 57% to Dinamo's 43%, but Dinamo flipped the script in the second half with two goals despite a red card reducing them to 10 men. This result represents a significant structural deviation, with Dinamo overcoming the halftime deficit and personnel disadvantage. Krasnodar's control failed to yield further scores, while Dinamo's resilience shone through tactical shifts and clinical finishing. The red card introduced chaos, yet Dinamo adapted effectively, securing a hard-fought win that boosts their momentum.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Moskva's 2-1 win marked a significant 100% deviation from expectations in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency levels stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remains undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned fully with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: Red card event altered match flow in the second half.
  • Red card distortion: Dinamo's red card distorted dynamics, but they still won 2-1.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Tanashev

Russia
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Khatuev

2nd Assistant

Russia

N. Novikov

4th Official

Russia

R. Mukhtarov

1st Assistant

Russia

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 25.81
Yellow cards / match 3.7
Red cards / match 0.23
Penalties / match 0.61
Dinamo Moskva P. Alpatov
P. Alpatov
VS
Krasnodar M. Musaev
M. Musaev
1.69
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.31
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 70 D
Sochi Rank: 51 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 D
Akron Rank: 55 W
Orenburg Rank: 54 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron Rank: 56 W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 W
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 W
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 65 D
Zenit Rank: 81 D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 60 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 7 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Krasnodar
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.17
77.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Moskva
Krasnodar
Power Score
71.17
77.13
League Position
7
2
Global Rank
186
92

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Krasnodar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Moskva Krasnodar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Krasnodar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.33
29.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.30
27.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo Moskva -0.23 Efficiency Index
vs
Krasnodar +0.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Moskva
Krasnodar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Moskva Krasnodar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Moskva Krasnodar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Moskva
Krasnodar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo Moskva
vs
Krasnodar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Moskva Krasnodar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Moskva 0.29
Krasnodar 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Moskva Krasnodar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Moskva 0.02
Krasnodar 0.06
Dinamo Moskva
Krasnodar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KRA had peak pressure around 76'.
  • KRA started the game with stronger pressure.
DMO Pressure KRA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KRA reached the top pressure at 76' (94.57).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Moskva DMO Home
27 matches
Krasnodar KRA Away
Match Record
8
Wins
12
7
Draws
7
12
Losses
8
Goals
23
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
23
-14
Goal Difference
+14

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:02:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Lunev
Russia
99 A. Lunev
J. Cáceres
Argentina
4 J. Cáceres
N. Marichal
Uruguay
2 N. Marichal
M. Osipenko
Russia
55 M. Osipenko
D. Skopintsev
Russia
7 D. Skopintsev
D. Glebov
Substitution
Russia
15 D. Glebov
T. Marinkin
60 T. Marinkin
N. Ngamaleu
Substitution
Cameroon
13 N. Ngamaleu
J. de Souza Mares
Substitution
Brazil
10 J. de Souza Mares
A. Gomes Lourenço
Substitution
Brazil
11 A. Gomes Lourenço
K. Tyukavin
Substitution
Russia
70 K. Tyukavin
Pitch
S. Agkatsev
Russia
1 S. Agkatsev
L. Olaza Catrofe
Uruguay
15 L. Olaza Catrofe
D. Costa Barbosa
Brazil
4 D. Costa Barbosa
V. Tormena de Farias
Brazil
3 V. Tormena de Farias
V. Paltsev
Russia
17 V. Paltsev
K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
Cape Verde
6 K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
A. Chernikov
Substitution
Russia
53 A. Chernikov
N. Krivtsov
Russia
88 N. Krivtsov
E. Spertsyan
Substitution
Armenia
10 E. Spertsyan
J. Fortes Bachiessa
Substitution
Angola
11 J. Fortes Bachiessa
J. Córdoba Copete
Colombia
9 J. Córdoba Copete

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
VTB Arena (Moskva)
Capacity :
26319
Attendance :
21379
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Inal Tanashev
Adlan Khatuev
Nikita Novikov
Rustam Mukhtarov

Statistics

Possession
DMO
44%
KRA
56%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 5
7 Shots 12
35 Dangerous attacks 54
43 Possession 57
2 Corners 6
18 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

21 Successful Headers 17
0 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
7 Goal Kicks 5
10 Dribble Attempts 15
27 Throwins 25
0 Successful Dribbles 4
2 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 3
8 Goal Attempts 11
82 Ball Safe 77

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 4
68 Attacks 90

Possession

19 Successful Long Passes 26
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
300 Passes 395
216 Successful Passes 304
72 Successful Passes Percentage 77
55 Long Passes 65

Defensive

58 Duels Won 53
10 Interceptions 7
22 Tackles 14
7 Saves 3

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 19
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

16 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Inal Tanashev

Starting XI ▼

99
Andrey Lunev
Andrey Lunev Goalkeeper
2
Nicolás Marichal
Nicolás Marichal Defender
4
Juan José Cáceres
Juan José Cáceres Defender
7
Dmitri Skopintsev
Dmitri Skopintsev Defender
55
Maksim Osipenko
Maksim Osipenko Defender
10
Bitello
Bitello Midfielder
17
U. Babaev
U. Babaev
Attacker60'
11
Arthur Gomes
Arthur Gomes Midfielder
21
Anton Miranchuk
Anton Miranchuk
Midfielder59'
13
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu Midfielder
91
Y. Gladyshev
Y. Gladyshev
Attacker83'
15
Danil Glebov
Danil Glebov Midfielder
24
Luis Chávez
Luis Chávez
Midfielder83'
60
Timofey Marinkin
Timofey Marinkin Midfielder
70
K. Tyukavin
K. Tyukavin Attacker
33
Ivan Sergeev
Ivan Sergeev
Attacker70'
Referee : Inal Tanashev

Starting XI ▼

1
Stanislav Agkatsev
Stanislav Agkatsev Goalkeeper
3
Vítor Tormena
Vítor Tormena Defender
4
Diego Costa
Diego Costa Defender
15
Lucas Olaza
Lucas Olaza Defender
17
Valentin Paltsev
Valentin Paltsev Defender
6
Kevin Lenini
Kevin Lenini Midfielder
10
Eduard Spertsyan
Eduard Spertsyan Midfielder
5
Jubal
Jubal
Defender83'
11
João Batxi
João Batxi Midfielder
23
Juan Manuel Boselli
Juan Manuel Boselli
Attacker64'
53
Aleksandr Chernikov
Aleksandr Chernikov Midfielder
66
Douglas Augusto
Douglas Augusto
Midfielder59'
88
Nikita Krivtsov
Nikita Krivtsov Midfielder
9
Jhon Córdoba
Jhon Córdoba Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ivan Sergeev
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+3'
Event
Maksim Osipenko
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+1'
Event
Jhon Córdoba
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Rolan Gusev
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
90'
Event
Ivan Sergeev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
86'
Event
Y. Gladyshev → Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Luis Chávez → Danil Glebov
6th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Jubal → Eduard Spertsyan
8th Substitution
Event
Rolan Gusev
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Ivan Sergeev → K. Tyukavin
5th Substitution
70'
67'
Event
Var
64'
Event
Juan Manuel Boselli → João Batxi
4th Substitution
Event
U. Babaev → Bitello
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Anton Miranchuk → Arthur Gomes
2nd Substitution
59'
59'
Event
Douglas Augusto → Aleksandr Chernikov
1st Substitution
Event
K. Tyukavin
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
48'
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Diego Costa
Header / 1st Goal
Event
K. Tyukavin
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jhon Cordoba receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Sergeyev takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Douglas Augusto Gomes Soares takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Sergeyev takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
89
Attempt Attempt
Ulvi Babaev takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Juan Boselli takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Update Update
Jubal Rocha Mendes Junior is on, and Eduard Spertsyan is off.
83
Update Update
Luis Chavez is on, and Danil Glebov is off.
83
Update Update
Iaroslav Gladyshev replaces Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu.
80
Attempt Attempt
Douglas Augusto Gomes Soares takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Pina takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Pina takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Jhon Cordoba takes a header but misses the shot.
71
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Olaza takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
71
Update Update
Ivan Sergeyev is on, and Konstantin Tyukavin is off.
65
Attempt Attempt
Juan Boselli's left-footed shot is saved.
65
Update Update
Juan Boselli is on, and Joao Pedro Fortes Bachiessa is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Tormena's header is saved.
60
Substitution Substitution
Ulvi Babaev comes on for Joao Paulo de Souza Mares, and Bitello is also substituted in.
59
Update Update
Douglas Augusto Gomes Soares is on, and Aleksandr Chernikov is off.
59
Update Update
Anton Miranchuk is on, and Arthur Gomes is off.
48
Attempt Attempt
Konstantin Tyukavin scores with a right-footed shot.
45
Update Update
Maksim Osipenko attempts a header but misses the target.
36
Attempt Attempt
Joao Paulo de Souza Mares takes a shot, but Bitello's left-footed attempt is saved.
32
Update Update
Diego Henrique Costa Barbosa scores with a header.
31
Attempt Attempt
Nikita Krivtsov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Konstantin Tyukavin receives a yellow card.
29
Attempt Attempt
Juan Cáceres takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
17
Attempt Attempt
Konstantin Tyukavin's header is saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Eduard Spertsyan takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Eduard Spertsyan takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Konstantin Tyukavin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Joao Pedro Fortes Bachiessa takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Pina takes a shot with his head but misses.

CONCLUSION

Dinamo Moskva's 2-1 comeback against Krasnodar exemplifies grit, overturning a 0-1 halftime score despite 43% possession and a red card. Krasnodar, the stronger side with superior control, faltered in conversion, allowing Dinamo's second-half surge. This significant deviation highlights Dinamo's adaptability amid red card distortion, aligning with market views while showcasing efficiency under pressure. The win strengthens Dinamo's position, exposing Krasnodar's vulnerabilities in tight contests.

Dinamo Moskva vs Krasnodar preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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