Dinamo City vs Astana Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Elbasan Arena Today - 7:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Dinamo City Dinamo City
0 Winner 1
Astana AST
Full Time Today 7:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal
Ramazan Karimov - 69'

CONTEXT

Dinamo City hosted Astana in the first leg of a two-legged tie with the home side entering as the stronger team based on pre-match indicators. The contest remained level at 0-0 through halftime. Dinamo City held 55 percent possession against Astana's 45 percent yet failed to convert territorial advantage into goals. No red cards were issued to either side. Astana claimed a 0-1 victory with the decisive goal arriving after the interval. The outcome represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations given the 69 percent deviation level recorded for the away side. The result leaves Astana ahead heading into the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Dinamo City 0-1 Astana. Astana showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with the final performance levels.
  • xG alignment: No xG values were recorded so alignment could not be measured.
  • Market alignment: The result was not aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated because underlying metrics were absent.
  • Event impact: No decisive events beyond standard play shaped the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were shown so no distortion from dismissals occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Dzivjak

Slovakia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

M. Štrbo

1st Assistant

Slovakia

?. Juhos

2nd Assistant

Slovakia

F. Glova

4th Official

Slovakia

League averages

Europa Conference League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 13.04
Yellow cards / match 2.62
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.15
Dinamo City Dinamo City
Dinamo City
VS
Astana Astana
Astana
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo City
38.56%
Draw
30.47%
Away Astana
30.97%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dinamo City
+37.92%
Draw
+26.29%
Astana
-64.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
42.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo City
Astana
Power Score
50
42.59
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo City — Opponent-weighted form score
Astana — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo City Astana

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Astana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Astana
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo City Astana
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo City Astana
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo City
Astana
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo City
vs
Astana
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo City Astana
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo City 0.00
Astana 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo City Astana
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo City 0.00
Astana 0.00
Dinamo City
Astana
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Dinamo City had peak pressure around 50'.
  • Dinamo City started the game with stronger pressure.
Dinamo City Pressure AST Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Dinamo City reached the top pressure at 50' (43.17).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo City Dinamo City Home
0 matches
Astana AST Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:06:32+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 09, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Elbasan Arena
Capacity :
12000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Lukáš Dzivjak
Milan Štrbo
Ákos Juhos
Filip Glova

Statistics

Possession
Dinamo City
56%
AST
44%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
9 Shots 7
75 Dangerous attacks 48
55 Possession 45
2 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 9

Match Overview

43 Ball Safe 43
8 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 4
23 Throwins 17
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

134 Attacks 91

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
6 Fouls 13

Squad

Referee : Lukáš Dzivjak

Squad ▼

1
Edmir Sali
Edmir Sali Goalkeeper
77
Aldo Teqja
Aldo Teqja Goalkeeper
97
Tomas Kiri
Tomas Kiri Goalkeeper
—
Rajan Guci
Rajan Guci Goalkeeper
27
Naser Aliji
Naser Aliji Defender
5
Rustem Hoxha
Rustem Hoxha Defender
22
Bruno Dita
Bruno Dita Defender
4
André Ferreira Teixeira
André Ferreira Teixeira Defender
47
Lorran de Oliveira Quintanilha
Lorran de Oliveira Quintanilha Defender
28
Jorgo Meksi
Jorgo Meksi Defender
93
Faton Neziri
Faton Neziri Defender
14
Bekim Maliqi
Bekim Maliqi Defender
—
Fjoart Jonuzi
Fjoart Jonuzi Midfielder
99
Eridon Qardaku
Eridon Qardaku Midfielder
31
Ledio Beqja
Ledio Beqja Midfielder
21
Klevi Qefalija
Klevi Qefalija Midfielder
6
Adrian Doci
Adrian Doci Midfielder
—
Karamba Gassama
Karamba Gassama Midfielder
8
Bakary Goudiaby
Bakary Goudiaby Midfielder
23
Bernard Berisha
Bernard Berisha Attacker
11
Dejvi Bregu
Dejvi Bregu Attacker
10
Lorenco Vila
Lorenco Vila Attacker
9
Saliou Guindo
Saliou Guindo Attacker
24
Florenc Ferruku
Florenc Ferruku Attacker
—
Baton Zabergja
Baton Zabergja Attacker
—
Peter Mandela Itodo
Peter Mandela Itodo Attacker
—
Hekuran Berisha
Hekuran Berisha Attacker
45
Bright James
Bright James Attacker
Referee : Lukáš Dzivjak

Squad ▼

93
Josip Čondrić
Josip Čondrić Goalkeeper
74
Mukhamedjan Seysen
Mukhamedjan Seysen Goalkeeper
99
Danila Karpikov
Danila Karpikov Goalkeeper
2
Karlo Bartolec
Karlo Bartolec Defender
3
Branimir Kalaica
Branimir Kalaica Defender
77
Dmitriy Shomko
Dmitriy Shomko Defender
15
Abzal Beysebekov
Abzal Beysebekov Defender
11
Yan Vorogovskiy
Yan Vorogovskiy Defender
6
Alibek Kassym
Alibek Kassym Defender
5
Kipras Kažukolovas
Kipras Kažukolovas Defender
52
Timur Tokenov
Timur Tokenov Defender
4
Sanzhar Anuarov
Sanzhar Anuarov Defender
21
Alexander Merkel
Alexander Merkel Midfielder
9
Bauyrzhan Islamkhan
Bauyrzhan Islamkhan Midfielder
8
Ivan Bašić
Ivan Bašić Midfielder
10
Marin Tomasov
Marin Tomasov Attacker
81
Ramazan Karimov
Ramazan Karimov Attacker
72
Stanislav Basmanov
Stanislav Basmanov Attacker
20
Nnamdi Franklin Ahanonu
Nnamdi Franklin Ahanonu Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Florenc Ferruku → Fabjan Përndreca
9th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Stanislav Basmanov → Abzal Beysebekov
8th Substitution
Event
David Fadairo → H. Berisha
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Ruben Silva-Richards → Eridon Qardaku
7th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Alexander Merkel → Dinmukhamed Karaman
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Dmitriy Shomko → Maksat Abraev
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Ramazan Karimov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Erion Hoxhallari → Ysni Ismaili
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Flamur Ruci → M. Ayodeji
3rd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Ivan Basic → Bauyrzhan Islamkhan
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

86
Update Update
Florenc Ferruku is on, and Fabjan Perndreca is off.
85
Update Update
Stanislav Basmanov comes on for Abzal Beysebekov.
76
Update Update
Ruben Richards comes on for Eridon Qardaku.
76
Update Update
David Fadairo is on, and Hekuran Berisha is off.
74
Substitution Substitution
Alexander Merkel is substituted for Dinmukhamed Karaman.
74
Update Update
Dmitri Shomko comes on for Maksat Abrayev.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ramazan Karimov scores to make it 1-0.
62
Substitution Substitution
Ivan Basic is substituted for Bauyrzhan Islamkhan.
62
Update Update
Flamur Ruci comes on for Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji.
62
Update Update
Erion Hoxhallari is on, and Ysni Ismaili is off.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Lukas Dzivjak.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.

CONCLUSION

Astana secured a narrow away win that places them in a favorable position for the second leg. Dinamo City controlled more of the ball but created insufficient threat to prevent the concession of the only goal. The halftime score of 0-0 indicated a tightly contested opening period that ultimately tilted in the visitors' favor after the break. With no disciplinary incidents recorded the match followed a conventional pattern without external interruptions. The significant deviation from pre-match projections highlights how Astana exceeded typical performance benchmarks on the day. Both teams will now prepare for the return fixture where Dinamo City must overcome the aggregate deficit.

Dinamo City vs Astana preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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