Derby County vs Sheffield United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Pride Park Stadium Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Derby County DRB
1 Winner 2
Sheffield United SHU
Full Time Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season
Sammie Szmodics - 5'
Goal
|
Goal
Sydie Peck - 69'
Tom Cannon - 62'

CONTEXT

Derby County hosted Sheffield United in a pulsating Championship clash at Pride Park, taking a commanding 1-0 halftime lead with 51% possession reflecting their status as the pre-match stronger team. The Rams controlled the first half, but the script flipped dramatically after the interval as the Blades roared back. Sheffield United, with 49% possession overall, displayed clinical finishing to overturn the deficit and clinch a 1-2 victory. No red cards marred the contest, and possession remained tightly contested throughout. This upset underscores Sheffield's resilience and Derby's failure to convert dominance into points, exposing second-half frailties. The result flips pre-match narratives, highlighting how fine margins define tight encounters in the promotion race.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sheffield United's victory marked a significant 76.1% structural deviation favoring the away side.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome did not align with pre-market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Nield

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Graham

2nd Assistant

Dean Whitestone

4th Official

M. Stevens

1st Assistant

Derby County J. Eustace
J. Eustace
VS
Sheffield United C. Wilder
C. Wilder
1.63
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 66 W
Norwich City Rank: 72 L
Oxford United Rank: 65 W
Southampton Rank: 77 L
Stoke City Rank: 64 W
Coventry City Rank: 79 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Preston North End Rank: 65 L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 L
Watford Rank: 66 W
Hull City Rank: 71 W
Bristol City Rank: 69 L
Swansea City Rank: 70 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 2 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Derby County
50.99%
Draw
25.07%
Away Sheffield United
23.94%

Movement

Changes since opening
Derby County
+50.72%
Draw
+17.75%
Sheffield United
-68.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.25
70.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Derby County
Sheffield United
Power Score
70.25
70.21
League Position
8
13
Global Rank
197
198

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Derby County — Opponent-weighted form score
Sheffield United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Derby County Sheffield United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Derby County

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sheffield United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Derby County ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sheffield United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.22
35.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.20
39.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Derby County +0.41 Efficiency Index
vs
Sheffield United -0.41 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Derby County
Sheffield United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Derby County ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sheffield United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Derby County Sheffield United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Derby County Sheffield United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Derby County
Sheffield United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Derby County
vs
Sheffield United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Derby County Sheffield United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Derby County 0.28
Sheffield United 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Derby County Sheffield United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Derby County 0.04
Sheffield United 0.02
Derby County
Sheffield United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SHU had peak pressure around 43'.
  • DRB started the game with stronger pressure.
DRB Pressure SHU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SHU reached the top pressure at 43' (85.31).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Derby County DRB Home
18 matches
Sheffield United SHU Away
Match Record
5
Wins
11
2
Draws
2
11
Losses
5
Goals
18
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
18
-7
Goal Difference
+7

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:01:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Widell Zetterström
Sweden
1 J. Widell Zetterström
J. Ward
England
23 J. Ward
S. Langås
Norway
6 S. Langås
M. Clarke
England
5 M. Clarke
C. Forsyth
Substitution
Scotland
3 C. Forsyth
D. Ozoh
Substitution
England
18 D. Ozoh
L. Travis
England
27 L. Travis
B. Brereton
Substitution
Chile
25 B. Brereton
S. Szmodics
England
19 S. Szmodics
J. Banel
Substitution
Netherlands
34 J. Banel
C. Morris
England
9 C. Morris
Pitch
A. Davies
Wales
17 A. Davies
H. Burrows
England
14 H. Burrows
M. McGuinness
Republic of Ireland
25 M. McGuinness
J. Tanganga
England
2 J. Tanganga
F. Seriki
Substitution
England
38 F. Seriki
C. O'Hare
Substitution
England
10 C. O'Hare
O. Arblaster
Substitution
England
4 O. Arblaster
S. Peck
England
42 S. Peck
G. Hamer
Substitution
Netherlands
8 G. Hamer
P. Bamford
England
45 P. Bamford
T. Cannon
Substitution
England
7 T. Cannon

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Pride Park Stadium
Capacity :
33597
Attendance :
32538
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
J. Graham
Dean Whitestone
Tom Nield
Mark Stevens

Statistics

Possession
DRB
50%
SHU
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 4
17 Shots 15
60 Dangerous attacks 45
51 Possession 49
6 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

74 Ball Safe 72
2 Injuries 0
9 Goal Attempts 12
0 Assists 2
4 Substitutions 5
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
20 Successful Headers 23
4 Successful Dribbles 8
12 Dribble Attempts 12
22 Throwins 14
7 Goal Kicks 9

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 3
90 Attacks 87

Possession

372 Passes 374
73 Successful Passes Percentage 82
76 Long Passes 50
12 Key Passes 14
24 Successful Long Passes 18
272 Successful Passes 305
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

Defensive

46 Duels Won 56
6 Saves 4
13 Interceptions 8
11 Tackles 13

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 11
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

13 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Tom Nield

Starting XI ▼

1
Jacob Widell Zetterström
Jacob Widell Zetterström Goalkeeper
6.91
3
Craig Forsyth
Craig Forsyth Defender
6.67
29
Oscar Fraulo
Oscar Fraulo
Midfielder74'
6.65
5
Matt Clarke
Matt Clarke Defender
7.07
6
Sondre Langås
Sondre Langås Defender
6.85
23
Joe Ward
Joe Ward Defender
7.01
18
David Ozoh
David Ozoh Midfielder
6.61
15
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
Attacker75'
6.62
19
Sammie Szmodics
Sammie Szmodics Midfielder
6.78
25
Ben Brereton Díaz
Ben Brereton Díaz Midfielder
6.71
22
Max Johnston
Max Johnston
Defender68'
6.67
27
Lewis Travis
Lewis Travis Midfielder
6.98
34
Jaydon Banel
Jaydon Banel Midfielder
6.64
42
Bobby Clark
Bobby Clark
Midfielder60'
6.69
9
Carlton Morris
Carlton Morris Attacker
7.04
Referee : Tom Nield

Starting XI ▼

17
Adam Davies
Adam Davies Goalkeeper
6.53
2
Japhet Tanganga
Japhet Tanganga Defender
6.58
14
Harrison Burrows
Harrison Burrows Defender
6.85
25
Mark McGuinness
Mark McGuinness Defender
6.83
38
Femi Seriki
Femi Seriki Defender
6.74
12
Ki-Jana Hoever
Ki-Jana Hoever
Defender64'
6.69
4
Oliver Arblaster
Oliver Arblaster Midfielder
6.72
48
Joe Rothwell
Joe Rothwell
Midfielder64'
6.5
8
Gustavo Hamer
Gustavo Hamer Midfielder
7.13
9
Danny Ings
Danny Ings
Attacker72'
6.59
10
Callum O'Hare
Callum O'Hare Midfielder
6.88
44
Jaïro Riedewald
Jaïro Riedewald
Midfielder85'
6.78
42
Sydie Peck
Sydie Peck Midfielder
6.94
7
Tom Cannon
Tom Cannon Attacker
6.6
24
Tahith Chong
Tahith Chong
Midfielder64'
6.46
45
Patrick Bamford
Patrick Bamford Attacker
6.95

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sammie Szmodics
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+7'
Event
Tahith Chong
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Bobby Clark
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
89'
85'
Event
Jaïro Riedewald → Callum O'Hare
9th Substitution
Event
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen → David Ozoh
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Oscar Fraulo → Craig Forsyth
7th Substitution
74'
72'
Event
Danny Ings → Gustavo Hamer
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Sydie Peck
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Max Johnston → Ben Brereton Díaz
5th Substitution
68'
64'
Event
Tahith Chong → Tom Cannon
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Ki-Jana Hoever → Femi Seriki
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Joe Rothwell → Oliver Arblaster
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Tom Cannon
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Bobby Clark → Jaydon Banel
1st Substitution
60'
54'
Event
Japhet Tanganga
Persistent fouling / 4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Harrison Burrows
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Matt Clarke
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
Event
Sondre Langås
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
18'
Event
Sammie Szmodics
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
5'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Joe Ward takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Matthew Clarke takes a shot with his head but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tahith Chong receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sammie Szmodics receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Bamford takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sydie Peck's right-footed shot is saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Harrison Burrows takes a left-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Danny Ings takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Update Update
Jairo Riedewald comes on for Callum O'Hare.
84
Attempt Attempt
Matthew Clarke's right-footed shot is blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
Danny Ings takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Attempt Attempt
Harrison Burrows takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
75
Update Update
Lars-Jorgen Salvesen comes on for David Ozoh.
74
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Klingen Langas attempts a header but misses the shot.
74
Update Update
Oscar Luigi Fraulo comes on for Craig Forsyth.
72
Update Update
Danny Ings is on, and Gustavo Hamer is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Max Johnston takes a left-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Sydie Peck scores with a right-footed shot.
68
Update Update
Max Johnston replaces Ben Brereton.
68
Attempt Attempt
Tahith Chong's left-footed shot is saved.
64
Update Update
Tahith Chong comes on for Thomas Cannon.
64
Update Update
Joe Rothwell replaces Oliver Arblaster.
64
Update Update
Ki-Jana Hoever is on, and Femi Seriki is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Thomas Cannon! He scores with a right-footed shot.
62
Update Update
Goal! Thomas Cannon scores, making it 1-1.
60
Substitution Substitution
Matthew Clarke is substituted for Jaydon Banel.
57
Attempt Attempt
Jaydon Banel takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Callum O'Hare takes a right-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Jaydon Banel's right-footed shot is blocked.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Japhet Tanganga.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Harrison Burrows receives a yellow card.
44
Attempt Attempt
Sydie Peck's left-footed shot is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Matthew Clarke's header is saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Cannon takes a left-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Hamer takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Cannon attempts a header but misses the shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Carlton Morris takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
David Ozoh takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Matthew Clarke takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
David Ozoh takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Matthew Clarke takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
15
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Hamer takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
6
Update Update
Goal! Sammie Szmodics scores to make it 1-0.
5
Attempt Attempt
Sammie Szmodics takes a right-footed shot and scores.
5
Attempt Attempt
Sammie Szmodics takes a right-footed shot and scores.
2
Attempt Attempt
Sammie Szmodics takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Attempt Attempt
Joe Ward takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Sheffield United's gritty 1-2 comeback at Derby County exemplifies football's unpredictability, transforming a halftime deficit into a vital win. As the underdogs with near-even possession, the Blades' second-half surge exposed Derby's inability to defend their lead despite being the stronger outfit. This significant deviation from expectations boosts Sheffield's momentum while denting Derby's promotion hopes. Without disruptions like reds, the result hinges on execution, rewarding persistence over early control. Both sides showed balance, but Sheffield's edge in conversion proved decisive, setting up intriguing future fixtures in the Championship grind.

Derby County vs Sheffield United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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