Deportivo La Coruña vs Mirandés Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Abanca-Riazor Mon, 20 Apr - 6:30 PM
La Liga 2
Deportivo La Coruña COR
3 Winner 1
Mirandés MIR
Full Time Mon, 20 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack - 71'
Yeremay Hernández - 58' (P)
Mario Soriano - 51'
Goal
|
Goal
Carlos Fernández - 42' (P)

CONTEXT

Deportivo La Coruña defeated Mirandés 3-1 in a Segunda División encounter, reversing a 0-1 halftime scoreline through a decisive second-half performance. Holding 52% possession compared to Mirandés' 48%, the home team gradually asserted control after conceding early. No red cards were issued, allowing uninterrupted play, and the absence of major tactical adjustments underscored a straightforward progression. Identified as the stronger side pre-match, Deportivo's win aligned with market projections, where home victory carried a 63.7% implied probability. However, the result featured a significant 36.3% structural deviation favoring Deportivo, indicating variance from baseline performance models. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations, reflecting balanced conversion rates absent xG specifics. This outcome bolsters Deportivo's campaign momentum while exposing Mirandés' vulnerability in sustaining leads.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deportivo La Coruña exhibited a significant 36.3% structural deviation in their 3-1 win.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome aligned with pre-market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable as data was not recorded.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no performance distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

?. Moreno Aragón

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Blázquez Sánchez

1st Assistant

J. Pardeiro Puente

4th Official

?. González Narváez

2nd Assistant

Deportivo La Coruña A. Hidalgo Morilla
A. Hidalgo Morilla
VS
Mirandés A. Muneta Beldarrain
A. Muneta Beldarrain
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.96
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Huesca Rank: D
Málaga Rank: D
Córdoba Rank: W
Sporting Gijón Rank: D
Real Zaragoza Rank: W
Ceuta Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Castellón Rank: D
Real Zaragoza Rank: W
Albacete Rank: D
Córdoba Rank: D
Real Valladolid Rank: W
Cádiz Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Deportivo La Coruña
63.65%
Draw
22.02%
Away Mirandés
14.33%

Movement

Changes since opening
Deportivo La Coruña
-31.05%
Draw
+16.94%
Mirandés
+14.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.97
21.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Deportivo La Coruña
Mirandés
Power Score
30.97
21.73
League Position
2
21
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Deportivo La Coruña — Opponent-weighted form score
Mirandés — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Deportivo La Coruña Mirandés

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Deportivo La Coruña

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mirandés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Deportivo La Coruña ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mirandés
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.58
29.06
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.06
25.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Deportivo La Coruña -0.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Mirandés +0.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Deportivo La Coruña
Mirandés
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Deportivo La Coruña ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mirandés
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Deportivo La Coruña Mirandés
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Deportivo La Coruña Mirandés
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Deportivo La Coruña
Mirandés
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Deportivo La Coruña
vs
Mirandés
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Deportivo La Coruña Mirandés
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Deportivo La Coruña 0.46
Mirandés 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Deportivo La Coruña Mirandés
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Deportivo La Coruña 0.03
Mirandés 0.12
Deportivo La Coruña
Mirandés
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MIR had peak pressure around 97'.
  • COR started the game with stronger pressure.
COR Pressure MIR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MIR reached the top pressure at 97' (86.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Deportivo La Coruña COR Home
9 matches
Mirandés MIR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
1
Goals
9
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
9
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T00:01:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
Á. Fernández Llorente
Spain
25 Á. Fernández Llorente
J. Navarro Jiménez
Spain
23 J. Navarro Jiménez
L. Noubi Ngnokam
Belgium
4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
M. Loureiro Ameijeda
Spain
15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
A. Altimira Reynaldos
Spain
2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
L. Cruz Hernández
Substitution
Spain
19 L. Cruz Hernández
R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
Substitution
Spain
14 R. Rodríguez Gil Carcedo
M. Soriano Carreño
Substitution
Spain
21 M. Soriano Carreño
G. Quagliata
Italy
12 G. Quagliata
B. Nsongo Tonfack
Substitution
32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
Y. Hernández Cubas
Spain
10 Y. Hernández Cubas
Pitch
J. Palomares Pulpillo
Spain
13 J. Palomares Pulpillo
F. Medrano Gastañaga
Spain
3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
J. Cabello Trujillo
Spain
15 J. Cabello Trujillo
J. Gutiérrez Martínez
Spain
22 J. Gutiérrez Martínez
H. Novoa Ramos
Spain
2 H. Novoa Ramos
S. El Jebari El Hannouni
Substitution
Morocco
30 S. El Jebari El Hannouni
R. Bauzà Sureda
Substitution
Spain
18 R. Bauzà Sureda
T. Helguera Merello Volante
Uruguay
6 T. Helguera Merello Volante
F. Hernandez Coarasa
Spain
28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
C. Fernández Luna
Substitution
Spain
10 C. Fernández Luna
U. del Cura Urra
Spain
48 U. del Cura Urra

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 20, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Abanca-Riazor
Capacity :
32490
Attendance :
23952
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Álvaro Moreno Aragón
Rodrigo Blázquez Sánchez
José Alberto Pardeiro Puente
Álvaro González Narváez

Statistics

Possession
COR
50%
MIR
50%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 5
5 Shots 3
26 Dangerous attacks 39
52 Possession 48
1 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 20
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 4
107 Ball Safe 99
9 Goal Attempts 10
13 Dribble Attempts 19
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
11 Throwins 15
8 Goal Kicks 10
4 Successful Dribbles 9
0 Hit Woodwork 2
1 Penalties 2

Attacking

78 Attacks 91
1 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

10 Key Passes 7
18 Successful Long Passes 29
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
399 Passes 353
40 Long Passes 62
84 Successful Passes Percentage 80
335 Successful Passes 282

Defensive

14 Tackles 11
50 Duels Won 52
5 Saves 1
4 Interceptions 4

Build-up

5 Total Crosses 15
0 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

22 Fouls 16
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Álvaro Moreno Aragón

Starting XI ▼

25
Álvaro Fernández
Álvaro Fernández Goalkeeper
6.72
4
Lucas Noubi
Lucas Noubi Defender
6.82
15
Miguel Loureiro
Miguel Loureiro Defender
6.91
23
Ximo Navarro
Ximo Navarro Defender
6.92
2
Adrià Altimira
Adrià Altimira Midfielder
7.16
12
Giacomo Quagliata
Giacomo Quagliata Midfielder
6.79
14
Riki Rodríguez
Riki Rodríguez Midfielder
6.87
20
José Ángel Jurado
José Ángel Jurado
Midfielder84'
6.74
19
Luismi Cruz
Luismi Cruz Midfielder
6.99
8
Diego Villares
Diego Villares
Midfielder75'
6.8
21
Mario Soriano
Mario Soriano Midfielder
7.11
17
Cristian Herrera
Cristian Herrera
Attacker88'
6.55
10
Yeremay Hernández
Yeremay Hernández Attacker
7.21
32
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack Attacker
6.66
9
Zakaria Eddahchouri
Zakaria Eddahchouri
Attacker84'
6.92
Referee : Álvaro Moreno Aragón

Starting XI ▼

13
Juanpa Palomares
Juanpa Palomares Goalkeeper
6.78
2
Hugo Novoa
Hugo Novoa Defender
6.56
3
Fernando Medrano
Fernando Medrano Defender
6.82
15
Jorge Cabello
Jorge Cabello Defender
6.79
22
Juan Gutiérrez
Juan Gutiérrez Defender
6.74
6
Thiago Helguera
Thiago Helguera Midfielder
6.65
18
Rafel Bauzà
Rafel Bauzà Midfielder
6.87
8
Aarón Martin
Aarón Martin
Midfielder88'
6.47
28
Javi Hernández
Javi Hernández Midfielder
7.24
30
Salim El Jebari
Salim El Jebari Midfielder
6.7
17
Pablo Pérez
Pablo Pérez
Defender84'
6.62
10
Carlos Fernández
Carlos Fernández Attacker
6.96
9
Siren Diao
Siren Diao
Attacker84'
6.46
48
Unax del Cura
Unax del Cura Attacker
7

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Siren Diao
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Javi Hernández
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Cristian Herrera → Mario Soriano
8th Substitution
88'
88'
Event
Aarón Martin → Rafel Bauzà
9th Substitution
Event
José Ángel Jurado → Riki Rodríguez
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Zakaria Eddahchouri → Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
5th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Pablo Pérez → Salim El Jebari
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Siren Diao → Carlos Fernández
4th Substitution
Event
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Diego Villares → Luismi Cruz
2nd Substitution
75'
75'
Event
1st Substitution
Event
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
71'
64'
Event
Hugo Novoa
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
59'
Event
Nikola Maras
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Yeremay Hernández
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
58'
Event
Adrià Altimira
Penalty confirmed
56'
Event
Mario Soriano
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
51'
48'
Event
Javi Hernández
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Lucas Noubi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+1'
42'
Event
Carlos Fernández
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Álvaro Fernández
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Deportivo La Coruña exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Deportivo La Coruña vs Mirandés preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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