Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Mendizorroza Sat, 23 May - 7:00 PM
La Liga
Deportivo Alavés ALA
1 Winner 2
Rayo Vallecano RAY
Full Time Sat, 23 May 7:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Toni Martínez - 13'
Goal
|
Goal
Randy Nteka - 90'
Sergio Camello - 73'

CONTEXT

Deportivo Alaves hosted Rayo Vallecano in a league encounter that concluded with a 1-2 away victory. Alaves took the lead in the first half and held a 1-0 advantage at the break. Rayo Vallecano mounted a comeback during the second period to overturn the deficit and claim the points. Possession figures ended nearly balanced at 48 percent for the home side and 52 percent for the visitors. No red cards were shown to either team throughout the contest. The stronger rated side Rayo Vallecano delivered the winning performance on the day. The final scoreline reflected a competitive battle that saw the away team adjust effectively after the interval.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Possession ended nearly even at 48 percent for Alaves and 52 percent for Rayo Vallecano.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to assess alignment with the final score.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with market predictions as Rayo Vallecano secured the win.
  • xG expectations: No xG metrics were provided to evaluate goal scoring expectations.
  • Event impact: Rayo Vallecano overcame a 1-0 halftime deficit to win 2-1.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued to influence the match outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Gil Manzano

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

?. Nevado Rodríguez

1st Assistant

Spain

J. Martínez Nicolás

2nd Assistant

Spain

G. Cueto Amigo

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.04
Yellow cards / match 4.14
Red cards / match 0.25
Penalties / match 0.29
Deportivo Alavés E. Sánchez Flores
E. Sánchez Flores
VS
Rayo Vallecano I. Pérez Soto
I. Pérez Soto
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.28
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Oviedo Rank: 71 W
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 W
Elche Rank: 74 D
Athletic Club Rank: 77 L
Mallorca Rank: 75 W
Real Madrid Rank: 93 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Villarreal Rank: 83 W
Valencia Rank: 78 D
Girona Rank: 75 D
Getafe Rank: 77 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 79 D
Espanyol Rank: 75 W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 0 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Deportivo Alavés
0.19%
Draw
5.65%
Away Rayo Vallecano
94.16%

Movement

Changes since opening
Deportivo Alavés
-0.28%
Draw
-3.89%
Rayo Vallecano
+4.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.48
79.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Deportivo Alavés
Rayo Vallecano
Power Score
77.48
79.86
League Position
13
8
Global Rank
85
62

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Deportivo Alavés — Opponent-weighted form score
Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Deportivo Alavés Rayo Vallecano

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Deportivo Alavés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rayo Vallecano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Deportivo Alavés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rayo Vallecano
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Deportivo Alavés Rayo Vallecano
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Deportivo Alavés Rayo Vallecano
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Deportivo Alavés
Rayo Vallecano
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Deportivo Alavés
vs
Rayo Vallecano
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Deportivo Alavés Rayo Vallecano
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Deportivo Alavés 0.00
Rayo Vallecano 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Deportivo Alavés Rayo Vallecano
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Deportivo Alavés 0.00
Rayo Vallecano 0.00
Deportivo Alavés
Rayo Vallecano
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ALA had peak pressure around 67'.
  • ALA started the game with stronger pressure.
ALA Pressure RAY Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ALA reached the top pressure at 67' (81.04).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Deportivo Alavés ALA Home
14 matches
Rayo Vallecano RAY Away
Match Record
5
Wins
9
0
Draws
0
9
Losses
5
Goals
14
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
14
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-23T18:30:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Sivera Salvá
Spain
1 A. Sivera Salvá
A. Pérez Hidalgo
Spain
7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
N. Tenaglia
Argentina
14 N. Tenaglia
V. Koski
Finland
16 V. Koski
V. Parada González
Substitution
Spain
24 V. Parada González
P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
Substitution
Spain
19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
A. Blanco Conde
Spain
8 A. Blanco Conde
J. Guridi Aldalur
Substitution
Spain
18 J. Guridi Aldalur
A. Rebbach
Algeria
21 A. Rebbach
L. Boyé
Substitution
Argentina
15 L. Boyé
A. Martínez López
Spain
11 A. Martínez López
Pitch
D. Cárdenas Lindez
Spain
1 D. Cárdenas Lindez
L. Espino García
Uruguay
22 L. Espino García
N. Mendy
France
32 N. Mendy
A. Mumin
Substitution
Ghana
16 A. Mumin
I. Balliu Campeny
Substitution
Albania
20 I. Balliu Campeny
G. Gumbau Garriga
Spain
15 G. Gumbau Garriga
Ó. Martín Luengo
Substitution
Spain
23 Ó. Martín Luengo
P. Díaz Fanjul
Spain
4 P. Díaz Fanjul
Á. García Rivera
Substitution
Spain
18 Á. García Rivera
R. Ntekja
France
11 R. Ntekja
C. Martín Domínguez
Substitution
Spain
14 C. Martín Domínguez

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Capacity :
19840
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jesús Gil Manzano
Ángel Nevado Rodríguez
Javier Martínez Nicolás
G. Cueto Amigo

Statistics

Possession
ALA
50%
RAY
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 4
8 Shots 2
49 Dangerous attacks 23
48 Possession 52
9 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

55 Ball Safe 51
8 Goal Attempts 8
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
10 Goal Kicks 1
6 Successful Dribbles 5
23 Throwins 15
12 Dribble Attempts 8
9 Successful Headers 11
4 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Assists 2

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
97 Attacks 84

Possession

53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
33 Successful Long Passes 26
347 Passes 377
62 Long Passes 57
80 Successful Passes Percentage 82
14 Key Passes 12
278 Successful Passes 310

Defensive

42 Duels Won 48
14 Tackles 19
3 Interceptions 8
5 Saves 10

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 2
20 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

13 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Jesús Gil Manzano

Starting XI ▼

1
Antonio Sivera
Antonio Sivera Goalkeeper
6.74
7
Ángel Pérez
Ángel Pérez Defender
6.73
14
Nahuel Tenaglia
Nahuel Tenaglia Defender
6.88
16
Ville Koski
Ville Koski Defender
6.87
24
Victor Parada
Victor Parada Defender
6.54
23
Carlos Protesoni
Carlos Protesoni
Midfielder33'
6.56
8
Antonio Blanco
Antonio Blanco Midfielder
6.94
18
Jon Guridi
Jon Guridi Midfielder
6.58
6
Ander Guevara
Ander Guevara
Midfielder84'
6.55
19
Pablo Ibáñez
Pablo Ibáñez Midfielder
6.76
4
Denis Suárez
Denis Suárez
Midfielder74'
6.64
21
Abde Rebbach
Abde Rebbach Midfielder
6.77
11
Toni Martínez
Toni Martínez Attacker
7.13
15
Lucas Boyé
Lucas Boyé Attacker
6.9
22
Ibrahim Diabaté
Ibrahim Diabaté
Attacker84'
6.63
Referee : Jesús Gil Manzano

Starting XI ▼

1
Dani Cárdenas
Dani Cárdenas Goalkeeper
7.12
16
Abdul Mumin
Abdul Mumin Defender
6.53
6
Pathé Ciss
Pathé Ciss
Midfielder61'
6.94
20
Iván Balliu
Iván Balliu Defender
6.54
2
Andrei Rațiu
Andrei Rațiu
Defender88'
6.97
22
Alfonso Espino
Alfonso Espino Defender
6.71
32
Nobel Mendy
Nobel Mendy Defender
6.82
4
Pedro Díaz
Pedro Díaz Midfielder
6.71
15
Gerard Gumbau
Gerard Gumbau Midfielder
6.72
23
Óscar Valentín
Óscar Valentín Midfielder
6.79
9
Alexandre Zurawski
Alexandre Zurawski
Attacker61'
6.66
11
Randy Nteka
Randy Nteka Attacker
6.49
14
Carlos Martín
Carlos Martín Attacker
6.47
10
Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello
Attacker38'
6.68
18
Álvaro García
Álvaro García Attacker
6.89
19
Jorge de Frutos
Jorge de Frutos
Attacker46'
6.89

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Alfonso Espino
6th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Randy Nteka
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Nahuel Tenaglia
5th Yellowcard
88'
88'
Event
Andrei Rațiu → Iván Balliu
9th Substitution
Event
Ander Guevara → Jon Guridi
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Ibrahim Diabaté → Lucas Boyé
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Abde Rebbach
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Denis Suárez → Pablo Ibáñez
6th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Sergio Camello
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Ángel Pérez
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
69'
64'
Event
Pathé Ciss
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Alexandre Zurawski → Óscar Valentín
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Pathé Ciss → Abdul Mumin
5th Substitution
54'
Event
Sergio Camello
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Jorge de Frutos → Álvaro García
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Sergio Camello → Carlos Martín
2nd Substitution
Event
Carlos Protesoni → Victor Parada
1st Substitution
33'
Event
Toni Martínez
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alfonso Espino receives a yellow card.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Randy Nteka scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Sergio Camello.
90
Attempt Attempt
Randy Nteka scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jorge de Frutos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nahuel Tenaglia receives a yellow card.
88
Update Update
Andrei Ratiu comes on for Ivan Balliu Campeny.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Diabate takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Zurawski's left-footed shot is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Denis Suarez Fernandez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Update Update
Ibrahim Diabate replaces Lucas Boye.
84
Update Update
Ander Guevara Lajo replaces Jon Guridi.
82
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Balliu Campeny takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Attempt Attempt
Randy Nteka's header is saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Gumbau takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
79
Attempt Attempt
Ville Koski's header is saved.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abde Rebbach receives a yellow card.
79
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Martinez Lopez takes a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
76
Update Update
Denis Suarez Fernandez comes on for Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras.
73
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Camello scores with a left-footed shot.
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sergio Camello scores, making it 1-1.
72
Attempt Attempt
Pathe Ciss takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Blanco takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Abde Rebbach takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Zurawski's header is saved.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Balliu Campeny takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Angel Perez receives a yellow card.
68
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Zurawski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Boye's right-footed shot is blocked.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pathe Ciss receives a yellow card.
62
Update Update
Alexandre Zurawski replaces Oscar Valentín.
62
Update Update
Pathe Ciss is on, and Abdul Mumin is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Tenaglia takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Angel Perez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sergio Camello receives a yellow card.
49
Attempt Attempt
Alfonso Espino takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Jorge de Frutos replaces Alvaro Garcia.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Gumbau takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Gumbau takes a left-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Tenaglia's right-footed shot is saved.
38
Update Update
Sergio Camello replaces Carlos Martin.
33
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Martinez Lopez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Update Update
Carlos Nahuel Benavidez Protesoni comes on for Victor Parada Gonzalez.
28
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Boye's right-footed shot is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Randy Nteka attempts a header but misses the shot.
13
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Martinez Lopez takes a left-footed shot and scores.
13
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Blanco has a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Martin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Boye takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Deportivo Alavés 1-2 Rayo Vallecano. Structural assessment: Rayo Vallecano exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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