Deportivo Alavés vs Mallorca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Mendizorroza Sat, 25 Apr - 12:00 PM
La Liga
Deportivo Alavés ALA
2 Winner 1
Mallorca MLL
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 12:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Toni Martínez - 69', 56'
Goal
|
Goal
Jan Virgili - 18'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Deportivo Alavés 2–1 Mallorca. The result saw Deportivo Alavés take the points. Deportivo Alavés showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deportivo Alavés recorded a significant 54.5% structural deviation outperforming pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with established metrics for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: Final result aligned fully with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unevaluable due to lack of underlying data.
  • Event impact: No notable events occurred to influence match progression.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion in team performance evaluations.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Javier Alberola Rojas

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Bueno Mateo

2nd Assistant

A. Rodríguez Moreno

1st Assistant

F. García Riesgo

4th Official

Deportivo Alavés E. Sánchez Flores
E. Sánchez Flores
VS
Mallorca M. Demichelis
M. Demichelis
0.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Madrid Rank: L
Real Sociedad Rank: D
Osasuna Rank: D
Celta de Vigo Rank: W
Villarreal Rank: D
Valencia Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Valencia Rank: D
Rayo Vallecano Rank: W
Real Madrid Rank: W
Elche Rank: L
Espanyol Rank: W
Osasuna Rank: D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 5 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Deportivo Alavés
45.51%
Draw
28.62%
Away Mallorca
25.87%

Movement

Changes since opening
Deportivo Alavés
-50.1%
Draw
+24.42%
Mallorca
+25.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.33
26.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Deportivo Alavés
Mallorca
Power Score
20.33
26.88
League Position
15
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Deportivo Alavés Opponent-weighted form score
Mallorca Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Deportivo Alavés Mallorca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Deportivo Alavés

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Mallorca

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Deportivo Alavés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mallorca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.80
11.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.80
34.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Deportivo Alavés +2.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Mallorca -2.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Deportivo Alavés
Mallorca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Deportivo Alavés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mallorca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Deportivo Alavés Mallorca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Deportivo Alavés Mallorca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Deportivo Alavés
Mallorca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Deportivo Alavés
vs
Mallorca
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Deportivo Alavés Mallorca
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Deportivo Alavés Mallorca
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Deportivo Alavés
Mallorca
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ALA had peak pressure around 62'.
  • ALA started the game with stronger pressure.
ALA Pressure MLL Pressure
Pressure Index: ALA reached the top pressure at 62' (93.01).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Deportivo Alavés ALA Home
17 matches
Mallorca MLL Away
Match Record
5
Wins
7
5
Draws
5
7
Losses
5
Goals
11
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
11
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:02:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
A. Sivera Salvá
Spain
1 A. Sivera Salvá
A. Pérez Hidalgo
Spain
7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
J. Castro Otto
Spain
17 J. Castro Otto
N. Tenaglia
Argentina
14 N. Tenaglia
V. Parada González
Substitution
Spain
24 V. Parada González
A. Rebbach
Algeria
21 A. Rebbach
P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
Spain
19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
A. Blanco Conde
Spain
8 A. Blanco Conde
C. Aleña Castillo
Substitution
Spain
10 C. Aleña Castillo
A. Martínez López
Substitution
Spain
11 A. Martínez López
L. Boyé
Substitution
Argentina
15 L. Boyé
Pitch
L. Román Riquelme
Spain
1 L. Román Riquelme
J. Mojica Palacio
Substitution
Colombia
22 J. Mojica Palacio
M. Valjent
Slovakia
24 M. Valjent
D. López Guijarro
Spain
27 D. López Guijarro
P. Maffeo Becerra
Substitution
Argentina
23 P. Maffeo Becerra
S. Darder Moll
Spain
10 S. Darder Moll
O. Mascarell González
Spain
5 O. Mascarell González
S. Costa
Portugal
12 S. Costa
P. Torre Carral
Substitution
Spain
20 P. Torre Carral
J. Virgili Tenas
17 J. Virgili Tenas
V. Muriqi
Kosovo
7 V. Muriqi

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Capacity :
19840
Attendance :
16167
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jorge Bueno Mateo
Javier Alberola Rojas
Alfredo Rodríguez Moreno
Francisco García Riesgo

Statistics

Possession
ALA
51%
MLL
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 0
48 Dangerous attacks 38
50 Possession 50
9 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Successful Headers 14
9 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Substitutions 4
2 Assists 1
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
25 Throwins 10
3 Injuries 0
6 Successful Dribbles 6
4 Goal Kicks 5
87 Ball Safe 98
7 Goal Attempts 2

Attacking

76 Attacks 78

Possession

340 Successful Passes 343
401 Passes 417
21 Successful Long Passes 29
85 Successful Passes Percentage 82
51 Long Passes 66
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
15 Key Passes 1

Defensive

5 Interceptions 8
15 Tackles 17
53 Duels Won 52
1 Saves 2

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 4
29 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

15 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Javier Alberola Rojas

Starting XI

1
Antonio Sivera
Antonio Sivera Goalkeeper
6.72
7
Ángel Pérez
Ángel Pérez Defender
6.7
14
Nahuel Tenaglia
Nahuel Tenaglia Defender
6.84
17
Jonny Otto
Jonny Otto Defender
6.72
21
Abde Rebbach
Abde Rebbach Defender
6.74
24
Victor Parada
Victor Parada Defender
6.51
5
Jon Pacheco
Jon Pacheco
Defender81'
6.75
8
Antonio Blanco
Antonio Blanco Midfielder
6.98
10
Carles Aleñá
Carles Aleñá Midfielder
6.76
4
Denis Suárez
Denis Suárez
Midfielder63'
6.67
19
Pablo Ibáñez
Pablo Ibáñez Midfielder
6.78
11
Toni Martínez
Toni Martínez Attacker
2
7.11
18
Jon Guridi
Jon Guridi
Midfielder81'
6.53
15
Lucas Boyé
Lucas Boyé Attacker
6.93
22
Ibrahim Diabaté
Ibrahim Diabaté
Attacker4'
6.7
Referee : Javier Alberola Rojas

Starting XI

1
Leo Román
Leo Román Goalkeeper
6.85
22
Johan Mojica
Johan Mojica Defender
6.69
3
Toni Lato
Toni Lato
Defender86'
6.52
23
Pablo Maffeo
Pablo Maffeo Defender
6.88
2
Mateu Morey
Mateu Morey
Defender85'
6.45
24
Martin Valjent
Martin Valjent Defender
6.67
27
David López
David López Defender
6.81
5
Omar Mascarell
Omar Mascarell Midfielder
6.76
10
Sergi Darder
Sergi Darder Midfielder
7.01
12
Samú Costa
Samú Costa Midfielder
6.88
20
Pablo Torre
Pablo Torre Midfielder
6.76
8
Manu Morlanes
Manu Morlanes
Midfielder70'
6.74
7
Vedat Muriqi
Vedat Muriqi Attacker
7.21
17
Jan Virgili
Jan Virgili Attacker
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Toni Lato Johan Mojica
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Mateu Morey Pablo Maffeo
8th Substitution
Event
Jon Pacheco Victor Parada
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Jon Guridi Toni Martínez
5th Substitution
81'
Event
7th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
4th Substitution
Event
Victor Parada
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
76'
70'
Event
Manu Morlanes Pablo Torre
3rd Substitution
Event
Toni Martínez
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
69'
Event
Denis Suárez Carles Aleñá
2nd Substitution
63'
59'
Event
Martin Valjent
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Toni Martínez
Header / 2nd Goal
56'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jonny Otto
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'
18'
Event
Jan Virgili
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Ibrahim Diabaté Lucas Boyé
1st Substitution
4'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Calebe from Alaves wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Jon Guridi of Alaves.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Manu Morlanes of Mallorca.
90
Update Update
Jonny from Alaves wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Jan Virgili of Mallorca.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Alaves winning 2-1 against Mallorca.
90
Update Update
Foul by Manu Morlanes of Mallorca.
90
Update Update
Denis Suárez from Alaves wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Mateu Morey from Mallorca is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul by Samú Costa of Mallorca.
86
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Antonio Sivera from Alaves.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Toni Lato comes on for Johan Mojica.
85
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to David López of Mallorca.
85
Attempt Attempt
Denis Suárez from Alaves has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked. Pablo Ibáñez provided the assist.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Mateu Morey comes on for Pablo Maffeo.
82
Corner Corner
Mallorca wins a corner after Antonio Blanco concedes.
82
Attempt Attempt
Jan Virgili's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after a foul by Antonio Blanco.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: Jon Guridi comes on for Toni Martínez due to an injury.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: Calebe comes on for Ángel Pérez.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Abdón Prats comes on for Sergi Darder.
80
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Toni Martínez from Alaves.
79
Attempt Attempt
Manu Morlanes from Mallorca has a right-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box blocked.
79
Update Update
Foul by Pablo Ibáñez of Alaves.
79
Update Update
Manu Morlanes from Mallorca wins a free kick in the attacking half.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mallorca after Antonio Blanco concedes.
76
Update Update
Vedat Muriqi of Mallorca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
76
Update Update
Vedat Muriqi of Mallorca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Victor Parada from Alaves receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
75
Update Update
Johan Mojica from Mallorca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
75
Update Update
Ángel Pérez of Alaves wins a free kick on the right wing.
71
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Antonio Blanco from Alaves.
71
Corner Corner
Mallorca wins a corner after Nahuel Tenaglia concedes.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mallorca: Manu Morlanes comes on for Pablo Torre.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alaves 2, Mallorca 1. Toni Martínez scores for Alaves with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Ángel Pérez.
67
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Blanco's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Ángel Pérez provided the assist.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Antonio Blanco of Alaves.
65
Update Update
Johan Mojica from Mallorca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: Denis Suárez comes on for Carles Aleñá.
60
Attempt Attempt
Sergi Darder's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Antonio Sivera.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Martin Valjent of Mallorca receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
58
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Toni Martínez from Alaves.
57
Corner Corner
Pablo Ibáñez from Alaves misses a header from the center of the box after a corner.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alaves after a concession by Leo Román.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Toni Martínez scores for Alaves with a header from very close range after a corner. The match is now 1-1.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alaves after a concession by Omar Mascarell.
55
Attempt Attempt
Toni Martínez's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Carles Aleñá provided the assist.
54
Update Update
Foul by Samú Costa of Mallorca.
54
Update Update
Jonny from Alaves wins a free kick in the attacking half.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Martin Valjent of Mallorca.
53
Update Update
Toni Martínez from Alaves wins a free kick on the right wing.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Jan Virgili of Mallorca.
51
Update Update
Nahuel Tenaglia from Alaves wins a free kick in the defensive half.
50
Update Update
Foul by Jan Virgili of Mallorca.
50
Update Update
Victor Parada of Alaves wins a free kick in the defensive half.
49
Corner Corner
Alaves win a corner after Pablo Maffeo concedes.
48
Corner Corner
Alaves win a corner after Pablo Maffeo concedes.
47
Update Update
Nahuel Tenaglia from Alaves wins a free kick in the defensive half.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Vedat Muriqi of Mallorca.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alaves after David López concedes.
45
Corner Corner
Alaves win a corner after David López concedes.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Alaves trailing Mallorca 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ángel Pérez's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Jonny provided the assist.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Alaves 0, Mallorca 1.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alaves after Martin Valjent concedes.
43
Corner Corner
Jonny from Alaves misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right. The chance was assisted by Abde Rebbach after a corner.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alaves after Sergi Darder concedes.
40
Update Update
Alaves are flagged for offside as Carles Aleñá is caught in an offside position.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Pablo Ibáñez of Alaves.
37
Update Update
Sergi Darder from Mallorca wins a free kick in the attacking half.
36
Update Update
Pablo Maffeo of Mallorca wins a free kick in the attacking half.
36
Update Update
Foul by Toni Martínez of Alaves.
33
Corner Corner
Abde Rebbach of Alaves has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved in the bottom right corner by Leo Román of Mallorca. The attempt was assisted by Victor Parada.
31
Update Update
Foul committed by Ibrahim Diabate of Alaves.
31
Update Update
Pablo Maffeo from Mallorca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Johan Mojica of Mallorca.
29
Update Update
Ángel Pérez of Alaves wins a free kick on the right wing.
29
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Tenaglia's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alaves after Leo Román concedes.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alaves after a foul by Omar Mascarell.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Samú Costa of Mallorca.
27
Update Update
Pablo Torre wins a free kick for Mallorca in the attacking half.
27
Update Update
Pablo Torre from Mallorca wins a free kick in the attacking half.
27
Update Update
Carles Aleñá of Alaves wins a free kick in the defensive half.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jonny from Alaves receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Jonny of Alaves.
26
Update Update
Pablo Torre wins a free kick for Mallorca on the left wing.
25
Attempt Attempt
Carles Aleñá's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Ángel Pérez provided the assist.
24
Update Update
Carles Aleñá of Alaves wins a free kick in the attacking half.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Pablo Maffeo of Mallorca.
21
Corner Corner
Mallorca wins a corner after Nahuel Tenaglia concedes.
20
Update Update
Foul by Jonny of Alaves.
20
Update Update
Pablo Torre from Mallorca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Antonio Blanco of Alaves.
18
Update Update
Vedat Muriqi wins a free kick for Mallorca in the defensive half.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mallorca takes the lead 1-0 against Alaves as Jan Virgili scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Samú Costa.
17
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Blanco from Alaves has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked. Ángel Pérez provided the assist.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alaves after a foul by Martin Valjent.
16
Update Update
Ibrahim Diabate from Alaves wins a free kick on the right wing.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by David López of Mallorca.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Abde Rebbach of Alaves.
14
Update Update
Samú Costa from Mallorca wins a free kick in the attacking half.
13
Update Update
Ibrahim Diabate from Alaves misses a header from the center of the box.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Toni Martínez of Alaves.
13
Update Update
Martin Valjent from Mallorca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
7
Update Update
Foul committed by Antonio Blanco of Alaves.
7
Update Update
Pablo Torre from Mallorca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
4
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: Ibrahim Diabate comes on for Lucas Boyé due to an injury.
3
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Lucas Boyé from Alaves.
2
Update Update
Abde Rebbach from Alaves wins a free kick in the defensive half.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Pablo Maffeo of Mallorca.
1
Update Update
Johan Mojica of Mallorca wins a free kick in the defensive half.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Ángel Pérez of Alaves.

CONCLUSION

Deportivo Alavés' second-half dominance turned a precarious 0-1 halftime scoreline into a valuable 2-1 triumph over stronger foes Mallorca. Even possession underscored a balanced clash, but Alavés' superior finishing and resolve clinched the points. This significant deviation highlights their home potency and ability to exceed benchmarks, with market alignment affirming the result's plausibility. Mallorca's failure to protect their lead raises questions on endurance. Alavés builds vital momentum for the campaign, exemplifying how tactical shifts can defy previews in La Liga's unforgiving landscape.

Deportivo Alavés vs Mallorca preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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