Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Club Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Mendizorroza Sat, 2 May - 4:30 PM
La Liga
Deportivo Alavés ALA
2 Winner 4
Athletic Club ATH
Full Time Sat, 2 May 4:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Nahuel Tenaglia - 68'
Antonio Blanco - 8'
Goal
|
Goal
Nico Williams - 87', 83'
Oihan Sancet - 74'
Robert Navarro - 46'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Deportivo Alavés 2–4 Athletic Club. The result saw Athletic Club take the points. Athletic Club showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation measured minimal at 2.1% favoring Athletic Club.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable match data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment achieved as stronger team Athletic Club secured victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without provided data.
  • Event impact: No red cards or second-half adjustments influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Quintero González

Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

?. Granel Peiró

1st Assistant

J. García Lozano

2nd Assistant

?. Juncal Moreira

4th Official

Deportivo Alavés E. Sánchez Flores
E. Sánchez Flores
VS
Athletic Club E. Valverde
E. Valverde
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mallorca Rank: 76 W
Real Madrid Rank: 92 L
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 D
Osasuna Rank: 78 D
Celta de Vigo Rank: 79 W
Villarreal Rank: 84 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atlético Madrid Rank: 88 L
Osasuna Rank: 78 W
Villarreal Rank: 82 L
Getafe Rank: 77 L
Real Betis Rank: 82 W
Girona Rank: 75 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 7 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Deportivo Alavés
0.22%
Draw
1.92%
Away Athletic Club
97.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.72
78.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Deportivo Alavés
Athletic Club
Power Score
75.72
78.34
League Position
17
8
Global Rank
100
74

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Deportivo Alavés — Opponent-weighted form score
Athletic Club — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Deportivo Alavés Athletic Club

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Deportivo Alavés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Athletic Club

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Deportivo Alavés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Athletic Club
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.10
22.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.90
18.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Deportivo Alavés -0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Athletic Club +0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Deportivo Alavés
Athletic Club
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Deportivo Alavés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Athletic Club
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Deportivo Alavés Athletic Club
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Deportivo Alavés Athletic Club
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Deportivo Alavés
Athletic Club
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Deportivo Alavés
vs
Athletic Club
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Deportivo Alavés Athletic Club
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Deportivo Alavés 0.17
Athletic Club 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Deportivo Alavés Athletic Club
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Deportivo Alavés 0.08
Athletic Club 0.05
Deportivo Alavés
Athletic Club
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ALA had peak pressure around 98'.
  • ATH started the game with stronger pressure.
ALA Pressure ATH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ALA reached the top pressure at 98' (74.07).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Deportivo Alavés ALA Home
20 matches
Athletic Club ATH Away
Match Record
6
Wins
7
7
Draws
7
7
Losses
6
Goals
12
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
12
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:05:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Sivera Salvá
Spain
1 A. Sivera Salvá
A. Pérez Hidalgo
Spain
7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
J. Castro Otto
Spain
17 J. Castro Otto
N. Tenaglia
Argentina
14 N. Tenaglia
V. Parada González
Spain
24 V. Parada González
A. Rebbach
Algeria
21 A. Rebbach
P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
Substitution
Spain
19 P. Ibáñez Lumbreras
A. Blanco Conde
Spain
8 A. Blanco Conde
D. Suárez Fernández
Substitution
Spain
4 D. Suárez Fernández
A. Martínez López
Spain
11 A. Martínez López
I. Diabate
Substitution
Ivory Coast
22 I. Diabate
Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
Spain
1 U. Simón Mendibil
Y. Berchiche Izeta
Spain
17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
A. Laporte
Spain
14 A. Laporte
Y. Álvarez López
Spain
5 Y. Álvarez López
A. Gorosabel Espinosa
Substitution
Spain
2 A. Gorosabel Espinosa
M. Jauregizar Alboniga
Substitution
Spain
18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
A. Rego Mora
Spain
30 A. Rego Mora
N. Williams Arthuer
Substitution
Spain
10 N. Williams Arthuer
U. Gómez Etxebarria
Substitution
Spain
20 U. Gómez Etxebarria
I. Williams Arthuer
Substitution
Ghana
9 I. Williams Arthuer
G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Spain
11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de Mendizorroza
Capacity :
19840
Attendance :
19125
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Álvaro Granel Peiró
José Francisco García Lozano
Alejandro Quintero González
Álvaro Juncal Moreira

Statistics

Possession
ALA
48%
ATH
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 9
41 Dangerous attacks 49
50 Possession 50
4 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 8
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Injuries 1
17 Dribble Attempts 14
9 Goal Kicks 3
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
30 Throwins 20
2 Assists 4
15 Successful Headers 18
5 Successful Dribbles 8
6 Goal Attempts 7
87 Ball Safe 83
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
81 Attacks 120

Possession

59 Long Passes 50
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 60
78 Successful Passes Percentage 82
314 Successful Passes 330
27 Successful Long Passes 30
402 Passes 402
7 Key Passes 8

Defensive

0 Saves 2
10 Interceptions 9
15 Tackles 26
47 Duels Won 60

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 5
18 Total Crosses 24

Discipline

8 Fouls 13
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Quintero González

Starting XI ▼

1
Antonio Sivera
Antonio Sivera Goalkeeper
6.72
7
Ángel Pérez
Ángel Pérez Defender
6.75
14
Nahuel Tenaglia
Nahuel Tenaglia Defender
6.85
17
Jonny Otto
Jonny Otto Defender
6.71
21
Abde Rebbach
Abde Rebbach Defender
6.76
24
Victor Parada
Victor Parada Defender
6.51
4
Denis Suárez
Denis Suárez Midfielder
6.68
18
Jon Guridi
Jon Guridi
Midfielder62'
6.52
8
Antonio Blanco
Antonio Blanco Midfielder
6.96
19
Pablo Ibáñez
Pablo Ibáñez Midfielder
6.78
6
Ander Guevara
Ander Guevara
Midfielder62'
6.58
11
Toni Martínez
Toni Martínez Attacker
7.16
22
Ibrahim Diabaté
Ibrahim Diabaté Attacker
6.68
10
Carles Aleñá
Carles Aleñá
Midfielder73'
6.76
Referee : Alejandro Quintero González

Starting XI ▼

1
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
6.78
2
Andoni Gorosabel
Andoni Gorosabel Defender
6.59
12
Jesús Areso
Jesús Areso
Defender73'
6.71
5
Yeray Álvarez
Yeray Álvarez Defender
6.74
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Defender
6.89
17
Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche Defender
6.93
9
Iñaki Williams
Iñaki Williams Midfielder
6.65
23
Robert Navarro
Robert Navarro
Midfielder46'
6.69
10
Nico Williams
Nico Williams Midfielder
2
6.83
19
Adama Boiro
Adama Boiro
Defender89'
6.48
18
Mikel Jauregizar
Mikel Jauregizar Midfielder
6.82
16
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
Midfielder46'
6.83
20
Unai Gómez
Unai Gómez Midfielder
6.5
8
Oihan Sancet
Oihan Sancet
Midfielder46'
6.67
30
Alejandro Rego
Alejandro Rego Midfielder
6.66
11
Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta Attacker
6.91

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Carles Aleñá
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+2'
89'
Event
Adama Boiro → Nico Williams
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Nico Williams
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
84'
Event
Mikel Jauregizar
7th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Nico Williams
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
76'
Event
Nico Williams
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Oihan Sancet
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Carles Aleñá → Ibrahim Diabaté
6th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Jesús Areso → Andoni Gorosabel
7th Substitution
Event
Nahuel Tenaglia
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
68'
Event
Ander Guevara → Pablo Ibáñez
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Jon Guridi → Denis Suárez
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Antonio Blanco
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
59'
59'
Event
Gorka Guruzeta
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Pablo Ibáñez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
46'
Event
Robert Navarro
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta → Mikel Jauregizar
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Robert Navarro → Iñaki Williams
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Oihan Sancet → Unai Gómez
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Toni Martínez
Penalty disallowed
45+1'
41'
Event
Ernesto Valverde
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Toni Martínez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
28'
Event
Antonio Blanco
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
8'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jon Guridi takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carles Alena Castillo receives a yellow card.
89
Update Update
Adama Boiro is on, and N. Inaki Williams Dannis is off.
88
Attempt Attempt
N. Inaki Williams takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Inaki Williams takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
83
Attempt Attempt
Inaki Williams takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to N. Inaki Williams of Dannis.
74
Attempt Attempt
Oihan Sancet scores with a right-footed shot.
73
Update Update
Jesus Areso replaces Gorosabel.
73
Update Update
Carles Alena Castillo comes on for Ibrahim Diabate.
68
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Martinez Lopez takes a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Rego takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Martinez Lopez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
62
Update Update
Jon Guridi replaces Denis Suarez Fernandez.
62
Update Update
Ander Guevara Lajo is on, and Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras is off.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antonio Blanco receives a yellow card.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez receives a yellow card.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antonio Blanco receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Goal! Robert Navarro scores, making it 1-1.
46
Update Update
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria comes on for Mikel Jauregizar.
46
Update Update
Oihan Sancet comes on for Unai Gomez.
46
Attempt Attempt
Robert Navarro scores with a left-footed shot.
46
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Diabate takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gorka Guruzeta Rodriguez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Inaki Williams takes a shot, but Dannis heads it away and misses the target.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antonio Martinez Lopez receives a yellow card.
17
Attempt Attempt
Abde Rebbach's right-footed shot is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Nico Williams attempts a header but misses the shot.
9
Update Update
Goal! Antonio Blanco scores, making it 1-0.
8
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Blanco takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
1
Attempt Attempt
Yuri Berchiche takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Athletic Club's 4-2 road win over Deportivo Alavés exemplifies their championship caliber, transforming a halftime deficit into a commanding performance through clinical second-half execution. Even possession belied Athletic's edge in converting chances, validating their status as the stronger team with market alignment and minimal deviation. Alavés' early promise evaporated against Athletic's resilience, exposing vulnerabilities in sustaining leads. Absent disruptive events, this result underscores tactical discipline and efficiency in line with projections. For Athletic, it bolsters momentum; for Alavés, a harsh lesson in match management amid La Liga's unforgiving landscape.

Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Club preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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