Dender vs La Louvière Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Van Roystadion Sun, 3 May - 5:15 PM
Pro League
Dender DEN
2 Winner 1
La Louvière RAAL
Full Time Sun, 3 May 5:15 PM
Round 5 Relegation Round
Bruny Nsimba - 44' (P)
Mohamed Berte - 34'
Goal
|
Goal
Pape Moussa Fall - 31'
Bo De Kerf 88' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Dender 2–1 La Louvière. The result saw Dender take the points. Dender showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dender exhibited minimal structural deviation of 5.3% from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without available metrics.
  • Event impact: Home red card significantly influenced second-half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Dender's red card caused second-half play distortion per adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Verbeke

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Seeldraeyers

1st Assistant

M. Toeback

2nd Assistant

L. Bultynck

4th Official

Dender A. Abdul Raouf
A. Abdul Raouf
VS
La Louvière F. Taquin
F. Taquin
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.67
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cercle Brugge Rank: 69 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 68 L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 L
La Louvière Rank: 63 W
Gent Rank: 71 L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 86 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 66 L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 L
Dender Rank: 61 L
Genk Rank: 76 D
Cercle Brugge Rank: 69 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dender
94.72%
Draw
5.09%
Away La Louvière
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Dender
+3.87%
Draw
-3.58%
La Louvière
-0.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.93
54.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dender
La Louvière
Power Score
60.93
54.45
League Position
16
14
Global Rank
454
395

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dender — Opponent-weighted form score
La Louvière — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dender La Louvière

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dender

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

La Louvière

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dender ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy La Louvière
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.30
32.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.50
21.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dender -1.06 Efficiency Index
vs
La Louvière +1.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dender
La Louvière
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dender ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy La Louvière
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dender La Louvière
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dender La Louvière
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dender
La Louvière
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dender
vs
La Louvière
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dender La Louvière
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dender 0.15
La Louvière 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dender La Louvière
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dender 0.02
La Louvière 0.04
Dender
La Louvière
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAAL had peak pressure around 71'.
  • DEN started the game with stronger pressure.
DEN Pressure RAAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAAL reached the top pressure at 71' (91.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dender DEN Home
3 matches
La Louvière RAAL Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:06:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
G. Dietsch
France
30 G. Dietsch
B. De Kerf
6 B. De Kerf
L. De Fougerolles
Substitution
Canada
44 L. De Fougerolles
B. Goncalves
France
7 B. Goncalves
L. Marijnissen
Netherlands
5 L. Marijnissen
N. Rodes
Belgium
18 N. Rodes
M. Viltard
Substitution
France
24 M. Viltard
K. Koton
Poland
15 K. Koton
D. Acquah
Substitution
Belgium
23 D. Acquah
M. Berte
Belgium
90 M. Berte
A. Jahanbakhsh
Substitution
Iran
27 A. Jahanbakhsh
Pitch
C. De Schrevel
Belgium
1 C. De Schrevel
M. Maisonneuve
France
13 M. Maisonneuve
Y. Okou
France
99 Y. Okou
W. Faye
Senegal
4 W. Faye
N. Gillot
France
3 N. Gillot
A. Beka Beka
Substitution
France
6 A. Beka Beka
S. Joel Ito
Belgium
23 S. Joel Ito
J. Liongola
Substitution
Burundi
11 J. Liongola
N. Nsingi
Substitution
Belgium
27 N. Nsingi
B. Soumaré
Substitution
France
28 B. Soumaré
P. Fall
Senegal
7 P. Fall

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 05:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 5 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Van Roystadion
Capacity :
8157
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bert Verbeke
Gianni Seeldraeyers
Maarten Toeback
Lander Bultynck

Statistics

Possession
DEN
50%
RAAL
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 5
53 Dangerous attacks 65
50 Possession 50
4 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

23 Throwins 19
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 21
11 Goal Kicks 4
20 Dribble Attempts 19
5 Substitutions 4
1 Penalties 0
1 Assists 0
6 Successful Dribbles 4
2 Injuries 0
100 Ball Safe 99
5 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

125 Attacks 100
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

73 Successful Passes Percentage 77
379 Passes 374
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
24 Successful Long Passes 33
276 Successful Passes 288
64 Long Passes 71
7 Key Passes 8

Defensive

5 Interceptions 17
19 Tackles 17
50 Duels Won 63
4 Saves 0

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 13
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

20 Fouls 10
6 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

30
Guillaume Dietsch
Guillaume Dietsch Goalkeeper
6.77
6
Bo De Kerf
Bo De Kerf Defender
6.48
7
Bryan Goncalves
Bryan Goncalves Defender
6.87
44
Luc De Fougerolles
Luc De Fougerolles Defender
6.69
70
Marsoni Sambu
Marsoni Sambu
Defender60'
6.6
5
Luc Marijnissen
Luc Marijnissen Midfielder
6.73
15
Krzysztof Koton
Krzysztof Koton Midfielder
6.57
18
Nathan Rôdes
Nathan Rôdes Midfielder
6.58
24
Malcolm Viltard
Malcolm Viltard Midfielder
6.77
16
Roman Kvet
Roman Kvet
Midfielder75'
6.84
23
Desmond Acquah
Desmond Acquah Attacker
6.53
11
Ragnar Oratmangoen
Ragnar Oratmangoen
Attacker46'
6.62
27
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Alireza Jahanbakhsh Attacker
6.67
77
Bruny Nsimba
Bruny Nsimba
Attacker32'
6.95
90
Mohamed Berte
Mohamed Berte Attacker
6.6
Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

1
Célestin Eric De Schrevel
Célestin Eric De Schrevel Goalkeeper
5.77
4
Wagane Faye
Wagane Faye Defender
6.87
13
Maxence Maisonneuve
Maxence Maisonneuve Defender
6.7
99
Yllan Okou
Yllan Okou Defender
6.93
3
Nolan Gillot
Nolan Gillot Midfielder
6.92
6
Alexis Beka Beka
Alexis Beka Beka Midfielder
6.78
18
Majeed Ashimeru
Majeed Ashimeru
Midfielder46'
6.41
11
Jordi Liongola
Jordi Liongola Midfielder
6.85
5
Thierry Lutonda
Thierry Lutonda
Defender72'
6.5
23
Joël Ito
Joël Ito Midfielder
6.65
7
Pape Moussa Fall
Pape Moussa Fall Attacker
7.01
27
Nachon Nsingi
Nachon Nsingi Attacker
6.38
8
Samuel Gueulette
Samuel Gueulette
Midfielder61'
6.59
28
Bryan Soumaré
Bryan Soumaré Attacker
6.45
22
Jerry Afriyie
Jerry Afriyie
Attacker46'
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Bo De Kerf
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
88'
Event
Amine Daali → Bruny Nsimba
9th Substitution
76'
Event
Roman Kvet → Malcolm Viltard
8th Substitution
75'
72'
Event
Thierry Lutonda → Jordi Liongola
7th Substitution
61'
Event
Samuel Gueulette → Nachon Nsingi
6th Substitution
Event
Marsoni Sambu → Luc De Fougerolles
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Ragnar Oratmangoen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
Event
Ragnar Oratmangoen → Desmond Acquah
4th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Jerry Afriyie → Bryan Soumaré
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Majeed Ashimeru → Alexis Beka Beka
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Nachon Nsingi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Bruny Nsimba
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
44'
Event
Mohamed Berte
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
34'
Event
Bruny Nsimba → Alireza Jahanbakhsh
1st Substitution
32'
31'
Event
Pape Moussa Fall
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nolan Gillot takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Maxence Maisonneuve's header is saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Rodes attempts a header but misses the shot.
81
Attempt Attempt
Nolan Gillot's left-footed shot is blocked.
76
Update Update
Amine Daali is on, and Bruny Nsimba is off.
75
Update Update
Roman Kvet replaces Malcolm Viltard.
72
Attempt Attempt
Singa Joel Ito takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
Thierry Lutonda replaces Jordi Liongola.
66
Attempt Attempt
Pape Moussa Fall takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Jerry Afriyie takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Nolan Gillot takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Update Update
Samuel Gueulette comes on for Nachon Nsingi.
60
Update Update
Fabrice Sambu Mansoni is on, and Luc De Fougerolles is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Bruny Nsimba's right-footed shot is blocked.
56
Update Update
Maxence Maisonneuve attempts a header but misses the target.
51
Attempt Attempt
Jerry Afriyie takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Ragnar Oratmangoen replaces Desmond Acquah.
46
Update Update
Jerry Afriyie comes on for Bryan Soumare.
46
Update Update
Majeed Ashimeru comes on for Alexis Beka Beka.
45
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Rodes takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Bruny Nsimba scores with a right-footed shot.
43
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Bruny Nsimba scores, making it 2-1.
34
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mohamed Berte with his right foot results in a goal.
32
Update Update
Bruny Nsimba comes on for Alireza Jahanbakhsh.
31
Attempt Attempt
Pape Moussa Fall scores with a right-footed shot.
24
Attempt Attempt
Alireza Jahanbakhsh attempts a header but misses the shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
Nolan Gillot takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Nachon Nsingi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Alireza Jahanbakhsh takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Alireza Jahanbakhsh attempts a header but misses the shot.
4
Attempt Attempt
Nolan Gillot takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Dender's 2-1 triumph over La Louvière affirmed their superiority, navigating a red card setback after a commanding first half where all goals occurred. Balanced possession underscored even contest, but home efficiency edged the win, with minimal deviation signaling expected resilience. Market alignment reinforced predictability, though absent xG limits deeper chance insights. The red card distorted proceedings without derailing the lead, highlighting defensive resolve. This result bolsters Dender's standing, proving numerical disadvantage no barrier to victory in a gritty encounter.

Dender vs La Louvière preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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