Degerfors vs Mjällby Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Stora Valla Sat, 9 May - 1:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Degerfors Degerfors
1 Winner 4
Mjällby Mjällby
Full Time Sat, 9 May 1:00 PM
Round 7 Regular Season
Nasiru Moro - 51'
Goal
|
Goal
Elliot Stroud - 84'
Abdoulie Manneh - 37'
Tom Pettersson - 30'
Jeppe Kjær - 4'

CONTEXT

Degerfors hosted Mjällby in a match that ended 1-4 in favor of the visitors. Mjällby established dominance early, surging to a 3-0 halftime lead with 58% possession against Degerfors' 42%. The home side managed a consolation goal in the second half, but Mjällby responded with a fourth to secure victory. No red cards were issued, maintaining a straightforward flow without disciplinary distortions. The result highlights Mjällby's structural superiority, evidenced by a significant 56.6% deviation in their favor from pre-match assessments. Efficiency patterns stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned with market positioning where Mjällby held the edge. Absent xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but possession and scoring efficiency underscore the away team's control throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mjällby recorded a significant 56.6% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match patterns.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the match's structural flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Klitte

Sweden 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Milovanovic

2nd Assistant

Sweden

A. Mustafa

4th Official

Sweden

S. Kristensson

1st Assistant

Sweden

League averages

Allsvenskan Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.95
Yellow cards / match 3.24
Red cards / match 0.05
Penalties / match 0.21
Degerfors H. Goitom
H. Goitom
VS
Mjällby Karl Marius Aksum
Karl Marius Aksum
1.57
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.86
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Häcken Rank: 59 D
Örgryte Rank: 42 D
AIK Rank: 58 W
Elfsborg Rank: 55 L
Halmstad Rank: 46 W
Sirius Rank: 63 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Malmö FF Rank: 64 W
Halmstad Rank: 47 W
GAIS Rank: 57 D
Brommapojkarna Rank: 48 W
Örgryte Rank: 42 L
Hammarby Rank: 69 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Degerfors
27.65%
Draw
28.94%
Away Mjällby
43.41%

Movement

Changes since opening
Degerfors
+27.33%
Draw
+26.57%
Mjällby
-53.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.02
70.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Degerfors
Mjällby
Power Score
48.02
70.17
League Position
11
4
Global Rank
842
208

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Degerfors — Opponent-weighted form score
Mjällby — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Degerfors Mjällby

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Degerfors

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mjällby

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Degerfors ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mjällby
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.12
22.84
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.84
45.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Degerfors +2.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Mjällby -2.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
Mjällby
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Degerfors ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mjällby
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Degerfors Mjällby
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Degerfors Mjällby
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
Mjällby
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Degerfors
vs
Mjällby
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Degerfors Mjällby
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Degerfors 0.44
Mjällby 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Degerfors Mjällby
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Degerfors 0.09
Mjällby 0.03
Degerfors
Mjällby
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Mjällby had peak pressure around 39'.
  • Mjällby started the game with stronger pressure.
Degerfors Pressure Mjällby Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Mjällby reached the top pressure at 39' (77.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Degerfors Degerfors Home
8 matches
Mjällby Mjällby Away
Match Record
0
Wins
7
1
Draws
1
7
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
3
-11
Goal Difference
+11

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:01:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
M. Igonen
Estonia
38 M. Igonen
D. Sundgren
Sweden
6 D. Sundgren
N. Moro
Ghana
15 N. Moro
S. Ohlsson
Substitution
Sweden
16 S. Ohlsson
S. Diatara
18 S. Diatara
K. Karlsson
Substitution
Sweden
4 K. Karlsson
N. Girmai
Substitution
Sweden
22 N. Girmai
G. Yaw Yiriyon
Substitution
Ghana
13 G. Yaw Yiriyon
M. Rafferty
Sweden
10 M. Rafferty
E. Barsoum
Substitution
Sweden
20 E. Barsoum
L. Fritzson
Sweden
14 L. Fritzson
Pitch
R. Wallinder
Sweden
13 R. Wallinder
T. Pettersson
Substitution
Sweden
24 T. Pettersson
A. Iqbal
Pakistan
5 A. Iqbal
T. Miettinen
Finland
33 T. Miettinen
E. Stroud
Sweden
17 E. Stroud
L. Malachowski Thorell
Substitution
Sweden
6 L. Malachowski Thorell
J. Gustavsson
Sweden
22 J. Gustavsson
W. Granath
Substitution
Sweden
14 W. Granath
A. Manneh
Substitution
19 A. Manneh
J. Bergström
Sweden
18 J. Bergström
J. Kjaer
Substitution
Denmark
10 J. Kjaer

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 7 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stora Valla
Capacity :
7500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alexander Milovanovic
Albert Mustafa
Simon Kristensson
Fredrik Klitte

Statistics

Possession
Degerfors
44%
Mjällby
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 4
9 Shots 2
39 Dangerous attacks 45
42 Possession 58
3 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

11 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Assists 4
6 Goal Attempts 9
10 Goal Kicks 6
73 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
13 Throwins 11
15 Dribble Attempts 14
77 Ball Safe 72
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

93 Attacks 101
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

315 Successful Passes 475
405 Passes 574
56 Long Passes 89
14 Successful Long Passes 45
25 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
78 Successful Passes Percentage 83
10 Key Passes 10

Defensive

44 Duels Won 49
14 Tackles 6
2 Saves 2
3 Interceptions 8

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 13
5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

16 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Fredrik Klitte

Starting XI ▼

38
Matvei Igonen
Matvei Igonen Goalkeeper
6
Daniel Sundgren
Daniel Sundgren Defender
15
Nasiru Moro
Nasiru Moro Defender
16
Sebastian Ohlsson
Sebastian Ohlsson Defender
28
Jesús Hernández
Jesús Hernández
Defender89'
18
Samba Diatara
Samba Diatara Defender
4
Kazper Karlsson
Kazper Karlsson Midfielder
27
Ziyad Salifu
Ziyad Salifu
Attacker80'
10
Marcus Rafferty
Marcus Rafferty Midfielder
13
Gideon Yaw
Gideon Yaw Midfielder
12
Erik Lindell
Erik Lindell
Defender67'
20
Elias Barsoum
Elias Barsoum Midfielder
11
Dijan Vukojevic
Dijan Vukojevic
Attacker46'
22
Nahom Girmai Netabay
Nahom Girmai Netabay Midfielder
24
Olle Leonardsson
Olle Leonardsson
Attacker67'
14
Ludvig Fritzson
Ludvig Fritzson Attacker
Referee : Fredrik Klitte

Starting XI ▼

13
Robin Wallinder
Robin Wallinder Goalkeeper
5
Abdullah Iqbal
Abdullah Iqbal Defender
24
Tom Pettersson
Tom Pettersson Defender
4
Axel Norén
Axel Norén
Defender67'
33
Tony Miettinen
Tony Miettinen Defender
6
Ludwig Malachowski Thorell
Ludwig Malachowski Thorell Midfielder
23
Á. Samuelsen
Á. Samuelsen
Attacker82'
14
Villiam Granath
Villiam Granath Midfielder
11
Timo Stavitski
Timo Stavitski
Attacker67'
17
Elliot Stroud
Elliot Stroud Midfielder
22
Jesper Gustavsson
Jesper Gustavsson Midfielder
10
Jeppe Kjær
Jeppe Kjær Attacker
7
Viktor Gustafson
Viktor Gustafson
Midfielder57'
18
Jacob Bergström
Jacob Bergström Attacker
19
Abdoulie Manneh
Abdoulie Manneh Attacker
15
Bork Bang-Kittilsen
Bork Bang-Kittilsen
Attacker82'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Viktor Gustafson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jesús Hernández → Sebastian Ohlsson
10th Substitution
89'
84'
Event
Elliot Stroud
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
82'
Event
Bork Bang-Kittilsen → Abdoulie Manneh
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Á. Samuelsen → Ludwig Malachowski Thorell
9th Substitution
Event
Ziyad Salifu → Kazper Karlsson
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Kazper Karlsson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
72'
Event
Olle Leonardsson → Nahom Girmai Netabay
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Erik Lindell → Gideon Yaw
4th Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Timo Stavitski → Villiam Granath
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Axel Norén → Tom Pettersson
5th Substitution
57'
Event
Viktor Gustafson → Jeppe Kjær
2nd Substitution
Event
Nasiru Moro
Header / 4th Goal
51'
Event
Dijan Vukojevic → Elias Barsoum
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Abdoulie Manneh
Header / 3rd Goal
30'
Event
Tom Pettersson
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
25'
Event
Tom Pettersson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
4'
Event
Jeppe Kjær
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ludvig Fritzson's left-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Dijan Vukojevic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Olle Leonardsson's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ludvig Fritzson takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Update Update
Jesus Hernandez replaces Sebastian Ohlsson.
88
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Gustafsson's right-footed shot is blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Stroud scores with a left-footed shot.
82
Update Update
Aki Samuelsen is on, and Ludwig Malachowski Thorell is off.
82
Update Update
Bork Classonn Bang-Kittilsen is on, and Abdoulie Manneh is off.
81
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Manneh takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Stroud scores with a left-footed shot.
81
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Stroud scores with a left-footed shot.
81
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Stroud scores with a left-footed shot.
80
Update Update
Ziyad Salifu is on, and Kazper Karlsson is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Manneh takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
77
Update Update
Tony Miettinen attempts a header but misses the target.
74
Attempt Attempt
Erik Lindell takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Erik Lindell is on, and Gideon Yiriyon Yaw is off.
67
Update Update
Timo Stavitski is on, and Villiam Granath is off.
67
Update Update
Axel Noren replaces Tom Pettersson.
67
Update Update
Olle Leonardsson comes on for Nahom Netabay.
58
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Manneh takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Manneh takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Update Update
Viktor Gustafsson comes on for Jeppe Kjaer.
55
Attempt Attempt
Nahom Netabay takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Update Update
Nasiru Moro scores with a header.
50
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rafferty takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Dijan Vukojevic comes on for Elias Barsoum.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Abdoulie Manneh scores, making it 3-0.
37
Update Update
Abdoulie Manneh scores with a header.
33
Attempt Attempt
Jeppe Kjaer takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Jeppe Kjaer takes a left-footed shot but misses.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tom Pettersson scores, making it 0-2.
30
Attempt Attempt
Jeppe Kjaer takes a left-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Tom Pettersson takes a left-footed shot and scores.
27
Attempt Attempt
Nahom Netabay takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Elias Barsoum takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Elias Barsoum takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Bergstrom's header is saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Jeppe Kjaer scores with a left-footed shot.

CONCLUSION

Mjällby's 4-1 triumph over Degerfors validates their status as the stronger side, with a commanding halftime lead and sustained possession edge. The significant deviation underscores their overperformance relative to expectations, while market alignment confirms predictive accuracy. Without xG metrics or disruptions like red cards, the scoreline reflects pure execution and second-half resilience after Degerfors' response. This result bolsters Mjällby's standing, exposing Degerfors' vulnerabilities in maintaining parity against superior opponents.

Degerfors vs Mjällby preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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