Degerfors vs Elfsborg Prediction, Preview and Stats
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Stora Valla Fri, 17 Apr - 5:00 PM
Allsvenskan Degerfors Degerfors 
0 
1
1
Elfsborg ELF Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 3 · Regular Season
|
J. Magnússon - 52'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
Degerfors dominated possession with 66% throughout the match against Elfsborg but suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat. The game remained goalless at halftime, with Elfsborg finding the breakthrough in the second half to secure victory. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Degerfors failed to capitalize on their territorial advantage, resulting in a significant 66% structural deviation favoring the visitors. No red cards disrupted play, and the outcome diverged from pre-match market probabilities, where Degerfors held a slight edge at 35.9% over Elfsborg's 34%. Efficiency metrics aligned with expectations, though xG data was unavailable to assess underlying chance creation. This result underscores Elfsborg's effectiveness despite limited ball control.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Result exhibited a 66% significant deviation favoring Elfsborg.
- Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
- xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
- Market alignment: Market alignment not achieved.
- xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
- Event impact: No second-half adjustments or notable events impacted the outcome.
- Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in play.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
G. Nyberg
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
D. Yng
1st Assistant
T. Senare
4th Official
A. Sjöberg
2nd Assistant
H. Goitom
VS
B. Hamberg
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Halmstad Rank: W
Sirius Rank: L
Brommapojkarna Rank: W
Hammarby Rank: D
Öster Rank: W
Halmstad Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Västerås SK Rank: D
IFK Göteborg Rank: W
Hammarby Rank: L
AIK Rank: L
Sirius Rank: L
Öster Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 5
5
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Degerfors35.91%
Draw
30.12%
Elfsborg33.96%
Movement
Changes since opening Degerfors+35.54%
Draw
+17.58%
Elfsborg-53.13%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.28 18.3 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Degerfors ElfsborgPower Score
19.28
18.3
League Position
10
1
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Degerfors — Opponent-weighted form score
Elfsborg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Degerfors Elfsborg
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Degerfors
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Elfsborg
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Degerfors ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Elfsborg
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.68
23.68
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.68
15.68
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Degerfors -0.80 Efficiency Index
vs
Elfsborg +0.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
Elfsborg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Degerfors ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Elfsborg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Degerfors Elfsborg Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Degerfors Elfsborg Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
Elfsborg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Degerforsvs
Elfsborg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Degerfors Elfsborg Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Degerfors 0.17
Elfsborg 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Degerfors Elfsborg Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Degerfors 0.02
Elfsborg 0.00
Degerfors
Elfsborg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- ELF had peak pressure around 65'.
- ELF started the game with stronger pressure.
Degerfors Pressure ELF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ELF reached the top pressure at 65' (67.68).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Degerfors Degerfors Home
8 matches
Elfsborg ELF Away
Match Record 1
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
1
Goals 7
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
7
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:28+00:00
STARTING XI
Degerfors Elfsborg Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
38 M. Igonen
6 D. Sundgren
16 S. Ohlsson
5 J. Pikkarainen
18 S. Diatara
10 M. Rafferty
B. Hussein
#865'
4 K. Karlsson
22 N. Girmai
O. Leonardsson
#2487'
20 E. Barsoum
14 L. Fritzson
11 D. Vukojevic
31 I. Pettersson
4 T. Poppler-Isherwood
6 R. Wikström
8 S. Holmén
V. Ozor Okeke
#2763'
23 N. Hult
10 S. Olsson
18 J. Magnússon
15 S. Hedlund
J. Beck
#1937'
9 A. Zeneli
L. Östman
#2175'
17 P. Frick
A. Sigurpálsson
#2563'
11 T. Silverholt
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
🏆 Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 3 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Stora Valla
👥 Capacity :
7500
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Daniel Yng
Glenn Nyberg
Tillsättes Senare
Anton Sjöberg
Next Match
Degerfors
vs
AIK
League: Allsvenskan
Kickoff: Thu, 23 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Stora Valla
Elfsborg
vs
Djurgården
League: Allsvenskan
Kickoff: Wed, 22 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Borås Arena
Statistics
Possession
Degerfors
62%
ELF
38%
Top Statistics
0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 6
47 Dangerous attacks 41
66 Possession 34
7 Corners 1
17 Free kicks 14
5 Yellow Cards 3
Match Overview
3 Goal Kicks 5
8 Dribble Attempts 9
29 Throwins 25
3 Successful Dribbles 1
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 11
2 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Substitutions 5
115 Ball Safe 86
0 Injuries 3
7 Goal Attempts 6
Attacking
94 Attacks 83
0 Big Chances Missed 1
Possession
82 Successful Passes Percentage 65
63 Long Passes 59
479 Passes 251
392 Successful Passes 164
28 Successful Long Passes 17
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
4 Key Passes 2
Defensive
43 Duels Won 36
5 Interceptions 9
13 Tackles 12
2 Saves 2
Build-up
30 Total Crosses 9
7 Accurate Crosses 3
Discipline
14 Fouls 17
4 Offsides 2
Lineup
Degerfors Referee : Glenn Nyberg
Manager ▼
H. Goitom Coach
Starting XI ▼
38 Matvei Igonen Goalkeeper
6.345 Juhani Pikkarainen Defender
6.88
6 Daniel Sundgren Defender
7.2116 Sebastian Ohlsson Defender
7.08
18 Samba Diatara Defender
6.744 Kazper Karlsson Midfielder
6.36
8Bilal Hussein
6.64Midfielder65'
10 Marcus Rafferty Midfielder
6.77
20 Elias Barsoum Midfielder
6.5724Olle Leonardsson
6.3Attacker87'
22 Nahom Girmai Netabay Midfielder
7.411 Dijan Vukojevic Attacker
6.414 Ludvig Fritzson Attacker
6.82
Substitutes ▼
8Bilal Hussein
6.64Midfielder65'
—
Unknown
76'
24Olle Leonardsson
6.3Attacker87'
Bench ▼
25
Rasmus Forsell Goalkeeper
15 Nasiru Moro Defender
6.2513 Gideon Yaw Midfielder
6.6619 Alexander Lindgren Midfielder
17 Arman Taranis Attacker
6.5421 Alexander Berisson Attacker
27 Ziyad Salifu Attacker
Elfsborg Referee : Glenn Nyberg
Manager ▼
B. Hamberg Coach
Starting XI ▼
31 Isak Pettersson Goalkeeper
6.54 Thomas Isherwood Defender
6.826 R. Wikström Defender
6.928 Sebastian Holmén Defender
6.7710 S. Olsson Midfielder
7.4715 Simon Hedlund Midfielder
6.7118 J. Magnússon Midfielder
23 Niklas Hult Midfielder
7.227O. Okeke
6.3Midfielder63'
9 Arbër Zeneli Attacker
6.8719Julius Beck
Midfielder37'
6.49
11 T. Silverholt Attacker
6.95
25A. Sigurpálsson
Attacker63'
6.95
17 Per Frick Attacker
7.1221Leo Östman
6.55Attacker75'
Substitutes ▼
19Julius Beck
Midfielder37'
6.49
27O. Okeke
6.3Midfielder63'
25A. Sigurpálsson
Attacker63'
6.95
21Leo Östman
6.55Attacker75'
—
Unknown
76'
Bench ▼
1 Tim Erlandsson Goalkeeper
2 Rufai Mohammed Defender
6.7616
A. Hellemaa Midfielder
6.2120
Gottfrid Rapp Midfielder
6.5524
F. Ihler Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+5'
A. Sigurpálsson
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
Olle Leonardsson → Elias Barsoum
8th Substitution
87'
85'
Julius Beck
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
6th Substitution
76'
76'
7th Substitution
75'
Leo Östman → Per Frick
5th Substitution
Bilal Hussein → Kazper Karlsson
4th Substitution
65'
63'
O. Okeke → Niklas Hult
2nd Substitution
63'
A. Sigurpálsson → T. Silverholt
3rd Substitution
62'
T. Silverholt
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Marcus Rafferty
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
54'
52'
J. Magnússon
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Sebastian Ohlsson
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
51'
Juhani Pikkarainen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
48'
1ST-HALF
37'
Julius Beck → Arbër Zeneli
1st Substitution
Ludvig Fritzson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
Kazper Karlsson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'
CONCLUSION
Elfsborg's 1-0 win over possession-heavy Degerfors highlights superior conversion from limited opportunities, overturning pre-match favoritism toward the home side. The significant deviation and market misalignment reflect an efficient away performance without reliance on structural advantages like red cards or major events. Lacking xG data limits precision on chance quality, but Degerfors' inability to score despite 66% possession points to finishing deficiencies. This outcome demonstrates how control does not guarantee results, rewarding Elfsborg's defensive solidity and timely strike.
Degerfors vs Elfsborg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
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