Degerfors vs AIK Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Stora Valla Thu, 23 Apr - 5:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Degerfors Degerfors
2 Winner 1
AIK AIK
Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 4 Regular Season
Arman Taranis - 85'
Stanley Wilson - 15' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Johan Hove - 45+5'

CONTEXT

Degerfors IF pulled off a surprising 2-1 home victory against the stronger AIK in a tightly contested Superettan match. The game was deadlocked at 1-1 at halftime, reflecting early parity as both teams found the net once. Degerfors held 46% possession compared to AIK's 54%, yet capitalized on key moments to secure the win. No red cards marred the proceedings, allowing uninterrupted flow. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 66.9% favoring Degerfors, who defied pre-match perceptions where AIK was seen as superior. Efficiency levels stayed in line with norms, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Degerfors' resilience shone through, particularly after the break, underscoring their ability to outperform expectations without major tactical shifts documented.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Degerfors recorded a significant structural deviation of 66.9% from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with established norms for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as Degerfors upset the stronger AIK.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be measured without available data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events notably altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

V. Wolf

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Hallin

1st Assistant

J. Dahl

2nd Assistant

R. Ekelund

4th Official

Degerfors H. Goitom
H. Goitom
VS
AIK J. Riveiro
J. Riveiro
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elfsborg Rank: L
Halmstad Rank: W
Sirius Rank: L
Brommapojkarna Rank: W
Hammarby Rank: D
Öster Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kalmar Rank: W
Brommapojkarna Rank: D
Halmstad Rank: W
Halmstad Rank: L
Elfsborg Rank: W
Häcken Rank: D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Degerfors
33.12%
Draw
29.34%
Away AIK
37.55%

Movement

Changes since opening
Degerfors
-59.22%
Draw
+21.95%
AIK
+37.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.62
24.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Degerfors
AIK
Power Score
22.62
24.28
League Position
7
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Degerfors — Opponent-weighted form score
AIK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Degerfors AIK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Degerfors

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AIK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Degerfors ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AIK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.76
20.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.46
30.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Degerfors +1.03 Efficiency Index
vs
AIK -1.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
AIK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Degerfors ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AIK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Degerfors AIK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Degerfors AIK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
AIK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Degerfors
vs
AIK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Degerfors AIK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Degerfors 0.28
AIK 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Degerfors AIK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Degerfors 0.02
AIK 0.05
Degerfors
AIK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AIK had peak pressure around 1'.
  • AIK started the game with stronger pressure.
Degerfors Pressure AIK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AIK reached the top pressure at 1' (84.87).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Degerfors Degerfors Home
8 matches
AIK AIK Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
6
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:02:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Igonen
Estonia
38 M. Igonen
D. Sundgren
Sweden
6 D. Sundgren
N. Moro
Ghana
15 N. Moro
S. Ohlsson
Sweden
16 S. Ohlsson
S. Diatara
18 S. Diatara
K. Karlsson
Substitution
Sweden
4 K. Karlsson
N. Girmai
Sweden
22 N. Girmai
G. Yaw Yiriyon
Ghana
13 G. Yaw Yiriyon
M. Rafferty
Sweden
10 M. Rafferty
E. Barsoum
Substitution
Sweden
20 E. Barsoum
L. Fritzson
Sweden
14 L. Fritzson
Pitch
K. Nordfeldt
Sweden
15 K. Nordfeldt
L. Bergquist
Sweden
5 L. Bergquist
I. Cissé
Ivory Coast
25 I. Cissé
S. Papagiannopoulos
Sweden
4 S. Papagiannopoulos
S. Wilson
Kenya
21 S. Wilson
J. Hove
Norway
8 J. Hove
A. Csongvai
Hungary
33 A. Csongvai
Zadok Yohanna
36 Zadok Yohanna
V. Andersson
Substitution
Sweden
11 V. Andersson
A. Mujanic
Substitution
Sweden
7 A. Mujanic
E. Hovden Flataker
Substitution
Norway
9 E. Hovden Flataker

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 23, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stora Valla
Capacity :
7500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mikael Hallin
Victor Wolf
Jonas Dahl
Rasmus Ekelund

Statistics

Possession
Degerfors
48%
AIK
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 9
43 Dangerous attacks 41
46 Possession 54
4 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 17
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 14
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
10 Successful Dribbles 8
21 Throwins 23
20 Dribble Attempts 23
1 Assists 1
2 Substitutions 3
7 Goal Attempts 6
80 Ball Safe 78

Attacking

70 Attacks 78
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

237 Successful Passes 282
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
74 Long Passes 77
325 Passes 384
73 Successful Passes Percentage 73
26 Successful Long Passes 38
8 Key Passes 5

Defensive

57 Duels Won 61
22 Tackles 20
12 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 1

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

17 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Victor Wolf

Starting XI ▼

38
Matvei Igonen
Matvei Igonen Goalkeeper
6.47
6
Daniel Sundgren
Daniel Sundgren Defender
7.04
15
Nasiru Moro
Nasiru Moro Defender
6.25
16
Sebastian Ohlsson
Sebastian Ohlsson Defender
6.93
18
Samba Diatara
Samba Diatara Defender
6.69
4
Kazper Karlsson
Kazper Karlsson Midfielder
6.57
11
Dijan Vukojevic
Dijan Vukojevic
Attacker76'
6.46
10
Marcus Rafferty
Marcus Rafferty Midfielder
6.63
13
Gideon Yaw
Gideon Yaw Midfielder
6.64
20
Elias Barsoum
Elias Barsoum Midfielder
6.55
17
Arman Taranis
Arman Taranis
Attacker63'
6.54
22
Nahom Girmai Netabay
Nahom Girmai Netabay Midfielder
7.26
14
Ludvig Fritzson
Ludvig Fritzson Attacker
6.84
Referee : Victor Wolf

Starting XI ▼

15
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Kristoffer Nordfeldt Goalkeeper
7.25
4
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos Defender
6.74
5
Lukas Bergquist
Lukas Bergquist Defender
6.17
21
Stanley Wilson
Stanley Wilson Defender
7.18
25
Ibrahim Cissé
Ibrahim Cissé Defender
7.39
8
Johan Hove
Johan Hove Midfielder
7.26
33
Áron Csongvai
Áron Csongvai Midfielder
7.34
36
Z. Yohanna
Z. Yohanna Midfielder
7.3
7
Amel Mujanic
Amel Mujanic Attacker
6.84
18
Abdihakim Ali
Abdihakim Ali
Midfielder75'
6.84
9
Erik Flataker
Erik Flataker Attacker
6.7
45
Taha Ayari
Taha Ayari
Midfielder76'
6.68
11
Victor Gonçalves Andersson
Victor Gonçalves Andersson Attacker
6.68
29
Kevin Filling
Kevin Filling
Attacker54'
6.52

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Daniel Sundgren
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Arman Taranis
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
85'
85'
Event
Johan Hove
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Dijan Vukojevic → Kazper Karlsson
5th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Taha Ayari → Erik Flataker
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Abdihakim Ali → Amel Mujanic
3rd Substitution
Event
Sebastian Ohlsson
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
Event
Arman Taranis → Elias Barsoum
2nd Substitution
63'
54'
Event
Kevin Filling → Victor Gonçalves Andersson
1st Substitution
51'
Event
Ibrahim Cissé
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Event
Johan Hove
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Ludvig Fritzson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
43'
21'
Event
Z. Yohanna
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Stanley Wilson
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
15'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Degerfors exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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