Cultural Leonesa vs Real Valladolid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal Reino de León Sat, 4 Apr - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Cultural Leonesa Cultural Leonesa
1 Winner 0
Real Valladolid REV
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Luis Chacón - 29'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Cultural Leonesa and Real Valladolid has finished, with the home side securing a 1-0 full-time victory. Cultural Leonesa established their lead early, taking a 1-0 advantage into halftime and holding firm defensively until the final whistle. This outcome defied pre-match expectations, as Real Valladolid entered the fixture as the slight favorites with a 37.3% win probability, compared to Cultural Leonesa's 34% and a 28.7% likelihood of a draw. Because the home side triumphed over the stronger team on paper, the result did not align with the pre-match market. This produced a significant deviation in favor of Cultural Leonesa. On the pitch, the visitors controlled the tempo with 56% possession, leaving Cultural Leonesa with 44% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the result was consistent with the underlying chance creation. However, the overall attacking efficiency shift remained in line with standard game dynamics. Finally, the match featured no red cards, meaning disciplinary events did not artificially impact the flow or the final outcome of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Cultural Leonesa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Ais Reig

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Cantón Vitoria

1st Assistant

R. Esteve Valenzuela

2nd Assistant

E. García Arriola

4th Official

Cultural Leonesa R. De La Barrera Fernández
R. De La Barrera Fernández
VS
Real Valladolid F. Escriba Segura
F. Escriba Segura
0.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Huesca Rank: 58 D
FC Andorra Rank: 60 L
Castellón Rank: 66 D
Racing Santander Rank: 72 L
Almería Rank: 70 L
Las Palmas Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cádiz Rank: 60 W
Burgos Rank: 67 L
Mirandés Rank: 57 L
Leganés Rank: 66 W
Málaga Rank: 68 D
Huesca Rank: 58 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cultural Leonesa
34.04%
Draw
28.7%
Away Real Valladolid
37.26%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.63
55.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cultural Leonesa
Real Valladolid
Power Score
54.63
55.97
League Position
21
17
Global Rank
525
463

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cultural Leonesa — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Valladolid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cultural Leonesa Real Valladolid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cultural Leonesa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Valladolid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cultural Leonesa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Valladolid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.43
12.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.14
19.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cultural Leonesa +0.73 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Valladolid -0.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cultural Leonesa
Real Valladolid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cultural Leonesa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Valladolid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cultural Leonesa Real Valladolid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cultural Leonesa Real Valladolid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cultural Leonesa
Real Valladolid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cultural Leonesa
vs
Real Valladolid
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cultural Leonesa Real Valladolid
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cultural Leonesa 0.23
Real Valladolid 0.07
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cultural Leonesa Real Valladolid
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cultural Leonesa 0.00
Real Valladolid 0.03
Cultural Leonesa
Real Valladolid
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cultural Leonesa Cultural Leonesa Home
4 matches
Real Valladolid REV Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
7
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:05:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Badía Guardiola
Spain
13 E. Badía Guardiola
V. García Hernández
Venezuela
24 V. García Hernández
R. Suárez Marcos
Spain
4 R. Suárez Marcos
M. Barzic Gutiérrez
Spain
36 M. Barzic Gutiérrez
H. Ahmed
Substitution
Qatar
12 H. Ahmed
I. Calero Ruiz
Spain
17 I. Calero Ruiz
T. Ojeda
Argentina
28 T. Ojeda
S. Maestre García
Substitution
Spain
6 S. Maestre García
R. Tresaco Blasco
Substitution
Spain
20 R. Tresaco Blasco
L. Rodríguez Chacón
Spain
10 L. Rodríguez Chacón
L. Ribeiro Costa
Substitution
Brazil
15 L. Ribeiro Costa
Pitch
Á. Aceves Catalina
Spain
1 Á. Aceves Catalina
C. Clerc Martínez
Spain
18 C. Clerc Martínez
D. Torres Ortiz
Spain
4 D. Torres Ortiz
R. Martinez Gil
Spain
5 R. Martinez Gil
C. Michelin
Substitution
France
2 C. Michelin
J. Ponceau
France
21 J. Ponceau
S. Jurić
Substitution
Croatia
24 S. Jurić
S. Canós Tenes
Substitution
Spain
7 S. Canós Tenes
I. San José Cantalejo
Spain
20 I. San José Cantalejo
P. Gonzalez Carmona
Substitution
Spain
22 P. Gonzalez Carmona
J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
Substitution
Spain
9 J. Latasa Fernandez Layos

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Municipal Reino de León
Capacity :
13346
Attendance :
10722
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Saúl Ais Reig
David Cantón Vitoria
Ricard Esteve Valenzuela
E. García Arriola

Statistics

Possession
Cultural Leonesa
44%
REV
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 1
31 Dangerous attacks 56
44 Possession 56
3 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 16
6 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 1
6 Goal Kicks 8
6 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0
15 Throwins 16
7 Goal Attempts 4
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
86 Ball Safe 77
17 Dribble Attempts 8
1 Assists 0

Attacking

82 Attacks 131
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 88
5 Key Passes 3
334 Successful Passes 440
400 Passes 500
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 60
21 Successful Long Passes 33
55 Long Passes 55

Defensive

14 Tackles 14
6 Interceptions 12
43 Duels Won 45
2 Saves 2

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 3
11 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
16 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Saúl Ais Reig

Starting XI ▼

13
Edgar Badia
Edgar Badia Goalkeeper
4
Rodri Suárez
Rodri Suárez Defender
12
Homam Al-Amin
Homam Al-Amin Defender
19
Rubén Sobrino
Rubén Sobrino
Attacker89'
24
Víctor García
Víctor García Defender
36
Matia Barzic
Matia Barzic Defender
6
Sergi Maestre
Sergi Maestre Midfielder
14
Bicho
Bicho
Midfielder63'
17
Iván Calero
Iván Calero Midfielder
20
Rafa Tresaco
Rafa Tresaco Midfielder
21
Roger Hinojo
Roger Hinojo
Defender63'
28
Thiago Ojeda
Thiago Ojeda Midfielder
10
Luis Chacón
Luis Chacón Attacker
15
Lucas Ribeiro
Lucas Ribeiro Attacker
7
Diego Collado
Diego Collado
Attacker34'
Referee : Saúl Ais Reig

Starting XI ▼

1
Álvaro Aceves
Álvaro Aceves Goalkeeper
2
Clément Michelin
Clément Michelin Defender
14
Iván Alejo
Iván Alejo
Attacker76'
4
David Torres
David Torres Defender
5
Ramón Martínez
Ramón Martínez Defender
18
Carlos Clerc
Carlos Clerc Defender
7
Sergi Canós
Sergi Canós Midfielder
17
Stipe Biuk
Stipe Biuk
Attacker51'
20
Chuki
Chuki Midfielder
21
Julien Ponceau
Julien Ponceau Midfielder
22
Peter Federico
Peter Federico Midfielder
39
Noah Ohio
Noah Ohio
Attacker66'
24
Stanko Juric
Stanko Juric Midfielder
8
Víctor Meseguer
Víctor Meseguer
Midfielder75'
9
Juanmi Latasa
Juanmi Latasa Attacker
10
Marcos André
Marcos André
Attacker66'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
10th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Quique Fornos
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Edgar Badia
Time wasting / 8th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Rubén Sobrino → Homam Al-Amin
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Selu Diallo → Diego Collado
9th Substitution
89'
78'
Event
Julien Ponceau
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Iván Alejo → Clément Michelin
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Víctor Meseguer → Stanko Juric
7th Substitution
66'
Event
Marcos André → Juanmi Latasa
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Noah Ohio → Peter Federico
6th Substitution
Event
Bicho → Sergi Maestre
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Roger Hinojo → Rafa Tresaco
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Iván Calero
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
53'
51'
Event
Stipe Biuk → Sergi Canós
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Homam Al-Amin
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
45+1'
37'
Event
Carlos Clerc
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Diego Collado → Lucas Ribeiro
1st Substitution
34'
Event
Luis Chacón
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
29'
Event
Matia Barzic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
21'
19'
Event
Stanko Juric
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Sergi Maestre
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Cultural Leonesa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.