CSKA Moskva vs Sochi Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia

VEB Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 11:00 AM

Premier League

CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva

Sochi Sochi

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 11:00 AM

Round 24 Regular Season

Martin Kramaric - 11' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between CSKA Moskva and Sochi is finished, with the full-time score 0-1 to the visitors. Sochi scored in the first half and held firm after the break to secure the points. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as CSKA Moskva were viewed as the stronger side yet could not find a way past Sochi's defense. The away team produced a disciplined performance that contradicted the pre-match projection, delivering an outcome that few had anticipated. Possession was heavily skewed toward the home side at 68 percent to Sochi's 32 percent, but CSKA generated no reward from their control of the ball. No expected goals data is available, so alignment with that metric cannot be determined. The efficiency shift remained in line with expectations across both teams, and no red cards occurred to alter the flow of play. In the end the victory aligned with the actual result on the pitch despite the clear pre-match lean toward CSKA.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Sochi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

S. Tsyganok

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Gavrilin

1st Assistant

A. Ermilov

2nd Assistant

A. Mashlyakevich

4th Official

F. Celestini

I. Osinkin

1.5

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.33

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

4 - 3 - 4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

CSKA Moskva

Draw

Sochi

Team Power Ranking

22.18

8.01

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

CSKA Moskva

Sochi

Power Score

22.18

8.01

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

CSKA Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score

Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) CSKA Moskva Sochi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

CSKA Moskva

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sochi

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

35.37

41.41

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

41.41

35.37

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

CSKA Moskva -0.70 Efficiency Index

Sochi +0.70 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

CSKA Moskva

Sochi

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sochi

Created Set-piece attacking threat

CSKA Moskva Sochi

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

CSKA Moskva Sochi

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

CSKA Moskva

Sochi

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

CSKA Moskva

Sochi

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

CSKA Moskva Sochi

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

CSKA Moskva Sochi

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

CSKA Moskva

Sochi

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Sochi had peak pressure around 8'.
Sochi started the game with stronger pressure.

CSKA Moskva Pressure Sochi Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Sochi reached the top pressure at 8' (85.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva Home

11 matches

Sochi Sochi Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:02:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-4-3

49 V. Torop

22 M. Gajić

4 J. Da Silva Marcelino

79 K. Danilov

3 D. Krugovoi

6 D. Barinov

31 M. Kislyak

18 D. Kozlov

10 I. Oblyakov

17 K. Glebov

9 L. Gondou

35 A. Degtev

4 V. Litvinov

33 M. Alves Santos

3 A. Soldatenkov

17 A. Makarchuk

19 A. Kovalenko

16 M. Mukhin

27 K. Zaika

8 M. Ignatov

9 Z. Fedorov

10 M. Kramarič

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 11:00 AM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season

Stadium :

VEB Arena

Capacity :

30457

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Sergey Tsyganok

Maksim Gavrilin

Aleksey Ermilov

Aleksandr Mashlyakevich

Statistics

Possession

CSKA Moskva

63%

Sochi

37%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1

0 Big Chances Created 1

8 Shots 6

61 Dangerous attacks 25

68 Possession 32

12 Corners 2

26 Free kicks 8

0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0

26 Throwins 20

18 Successful Headers 14

4 Goal Kicks 12

60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53

12 Successful Dribbles 8

92 Ball Safe 83

20 Dribble Attempts 15

0 Penalties 2

4 Substitutions 5

21 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

121 Attacks 81

Possession

28 Successful Long Passes 21

53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

53 Long Passes 66

447 Successful Passes 166

538 Passes 259

83 Successful Passes Percentage 64

Defensive

5 Saves 8

3 Interceptions 16

12 Tackles 16

Build-up

36 Total Crosses 10

7 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

8 Fouls 26

1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Tsyganok

Manager ▼

F. Celestini Coach

Starting XI ▼

Vladislav Torop Goalkeeper

Danil Krugovoy Defender

João Victor Defender

Milan Gajić Defender

Moisés

Defender78'

Kirill Danilov Defender

Dmitri Barinov Midfielder

Tamerlan Musaev

Attacker68'

Ivan Oblyakov Midfielder

Kirill Glebov Midfielder

Maksim Voronov

Attacker87'

Danila Kozlov Midfielder

Henrique Carmo

Attacker46'

Matvey Kislyak Midfielder

Luciano Gondou Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Henrique Carmo

Attacker46'

Tamerlan Musaev

Attacker68'

Moisés

Defender78'

Maksim Voronov

Attacker87'

Bench ▼

Egor Besaev Goalkeeper

Matheus Reis Defender

Mingiyan Badmaev Defender

Matheus Alves Nascimento Midfielder

Matija Popović Midfielder

Artem Bandikyan Midfielder

Imran Firov Midfielder

Daniel Ruiz Rivera Attacker

Referee : Sergey Tsyganok