CSKA Moskva vs Rostov Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VEB Arena Tue, 21 Apr - 4:45 PM
Premier League
CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva
1 – 1
Rostov FCR
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 4:45 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Tamerlan Musaev - 57'
Goal
|
Goal
Ronaldo - 36'

CONTEXT

CSKA Moskva welcomed Rostov to their home ground in a match that concluded 1-1. The home side dominated possession at 67% to Rostov's 33%, yet trailed 0-1 at halftime after Rostov capitalized on an early chance. CSKA pushed forward in the second half, equalizing through determined play to salvage a point. Identified as the stronger team, CSKA's draw represents a significant structural deviation from expectations, with a 100% deviation level attributed to them. No red cards disrupted the flow, and no major second-half adjustments altered the dynamics. Rostov's resilience in defense frustrated CSKA's attacks, ensuring both sides shared the spoils in a competitive outing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: CSKA Moskva showed a significant 100% structural deviation in the 1-1 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: 1-1 draw aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Abrosimov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
CSKA Moskva F. Celestini
F. Celestini
VS
Rostov J. Alba Cabello
J. Alba Cabello
1.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov Rank: D
Sochi Rank: L
Akron Rank: W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: W
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sochi Rank: L
Spartak Moskva Rank: D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
20
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
20 - 9 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home CSKA Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Rostov
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.2
17.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
CSKA Moskva
Rostov
Power Score
22.2
17.6
League Position
6
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
CSKA Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Rostov — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) CSKA Moskva Rostov

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

CSKA Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rostov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rostov
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.21
30.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.30
18.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
CSKA Moskva -1.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Rostov +1.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Rostov
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rostov
Created Set-piece attacking threat
CSKA Moskva Rostov
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
CSKA Moskva Rostov
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Rostov
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
CSKA Moskva
vs
Rostov
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
CSKA Moskva Rostov
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
CSKA Moskva 0.14
Rostov 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
CSKA Moskva Rostov
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
CSKA Moskva 0.03
Rostov 0.02
CSKA Moskva
Rostov
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CSKA Moskva had peak pressure around 53'.
  • FCR started the game with stronger pressure.
CSKA Moskva Pressure FCR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CSKA Moskva reached the top pressure at 53' (81.25).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva Home
41 matches
Rostov FCR Away
Match Record
20
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
20
Goals
63
Goals Scored
38
38
Goals Conceded
63
+25
Goal Difference
-25

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:02:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
V. Torop
Russia
49 V. Torop
M. Gajić
Substitution
Serbia
22 M. Gajić
J. Da Silva Marcelino
Brazil
4 J. Da Silva Marcelino
K. Danilov
Russia
79 K. Danilov
M. Barbosa
Brazil
27 M. Barbosa
I. Oblyakov
Russia
10 I. Oblyakov
D. Barinov
Russia
6 D. Barinov
D. Krugovoi
Russia
3 D. Krugovoi
L. Gondou
Argentina
9 L. Gondou
D. Kozlov
Substitution
Russia
18 D. Kozlov
T. Musaev
Substitution
Russia
11 T. Musaev
Pitch
H. Hankič
Substitution
Austria
13 H. Hankič
I. Vakhaniya
Russia
40 I. Vakhaniya
O. Sako
Ivory Coast
3 O. Sako
D. Chistyakov
Substitution
Russia
78 D. Chistyakov
V. Melekhin
Russia
4 V. Melekhin
R. Soares dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
7 R. Soares dos Santos
K. Kuchaev
Russia
18 K. Kuchaev
A. Mironov
Russia
8 A. Mironov
K. Shchetinin
Russia
10 K. Shchetinin
T. Suleymanov
Russia
99 T. Suleymanov
E. Golenkov
Substitution
Russia
69 E. Golenkov

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 21, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
VEB Arena
Capacity :
30457
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ivan Abrosimov

Statistics

Possession
CSKA Moskva
61%
FCR
39%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 8
64 Dangerous attacks 40
67 Possession 33
7 Corners 8
12 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

29 Throwins 18
20 Dribble Attempts 18
7 Goal Kicks 8
32 Successful Headers 22
0 Hit Woodwork 1
7 Successful Dribbles 7
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 39
1 Assists 0
74 Ball Safe 80
3 Substitutions 4
7 Goal Attempts 7
1 Injuries 4

Attacking

109 Attacks 84
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

445 Successful Passes 176
57 Long Passes 67
81 Successful Passes Percentage 65
550 Passes 270
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 25
25 Successful Long Passes 17

Defensive

17 Tackles 23
4 Interceptions 19
1 Saves 2
71 Duels Won 66

Build-up

37 Total Crosses 24
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Abrosimov

Starting XI ▼

49
Vladislav Torop
Vladislav Torop Goalkeeper
6.9
4
João Victor
João Victor Defender
6.89
22
Milan Gajić
Milan Gajić Defender
6.74
20
Matija Popović
Matija Popović
Midfielder86'
6.57
27
Moisés
Moisés Defender
6.81
79
Kirill Danilov
Kirill Danilov Defender
6.58
3
Danil Krugovoy
Danil Krugovoy Midfielder
6.99
6
Dmitri Barinov
Dmitri Barinov Midfielder
7.14
9
Luciano Gondou
Luciano Gondou Midfielder
6.62
10
Ivan Oblyakov
Ivan Oblyakov Midfielder
7.42
18
Danila Kozlov
Danila Kozlov Midfielder
6.56
37
Henrique Carmo
Henrique Carmo
Attacker46'
6.78
11
Tamerlan Musaev
Tamerlan Musaev Attacker
6.86
97
Maksim Voronov
Maksim Voronov
Attacker77'
6.56
Referee : Ivan Abrosimov

Starting XI ▼

13
Hidajet Hankic
Hidajet Hankic Goalkeeper
6.82
71
Daniil Odoevskiy
Daniil Odoevskiy
Goalkeeper67'
6.57
3
Oumar Sako
Oumar Sako Defender
6.65
4
Viktor Melekhin
Viktor Melekhin Defender
6.74
7
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Defender
6.87
87
Andrey Langovich
Andrey Langovich
Defender79'
6.52
40
Ilya Vakhania
Ilya Vakhania Defender
6.73
78
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Dmitriy Chistyakov Defender
6.99
22
David Semenchuk
David Semenchuk
Defender75'
6.74
8
Aleksey Mironov
Aleksey Mironov Midfielder
7.09
10
Kirill Shchetinin
Kirill Shchetinin Midfielder
6.95
18
Konstantin Kuchaev
Konstantin Kuchaev Midfielder
6.83
69
Egor Golenkov
Egor Golenkov Attacker
6.86
19
Khoren Bayramyan
Khoren Bayramyan
Midfielder75'
6.45
99
Timur Suleymanov
Timur Suleymanov Attacker
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Matija Popović → Milan Gajić
7th Substitution
86'
79'
Event
Andrey Langovich → Ronaldo
6th Substitution
Event
Maksim Voronov → Tamerlan Musaev
5th Substitution
77'
75'
Event
David Semenchuk → Dmitriy Chistyakov
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Khoren Bayramyan → Egor Golenkov
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Daniil Odoevskiy → Hidajet Hankic
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Aleksey Mironov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Tamerlan Musaev
Header / 2nd Goal
57'
Event
Moisés
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Henrique Carmo → Danila Kozlov
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Ronaldo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Tamerlan Musaev
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw encapsulates CSKA Moskva's dominance without decisive edge, as their 67% possession yielded only parity against Rostov. Trailing at halftime underscored early vulnerabilities, but second-half resolve secured a share. As the stronger side, CSKA's significant deviation highlights conversion struggles, while Rostov maximized efficiency on the counter. Market alignment confirms the result's foreseeability, though absent xG limits deeper analysis. No disruptions from reds or events kept focus on tactics, leaving CSKA reflective and Rostov satisfied with a road point in a fair contest.

CSKA Moskva vs Rostov preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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