CSKA Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VEB Arena Sun, 17 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva
3 Winner 1
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Full Time Sun, 17 May 3:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Danil Krugovoy - 90+1'
Maksim Nenakhov - 57' (Own Goal)
Danila Kozlov - 35'
Goal
|
Goal
Alexander Silyanov - 70'

CONTEXT

In a Moscow derby clash CSKA Moskva overcame Lokomotiv Moskva with a 3-1 scoreline after leading 1-0 at the interval. The home side struck first before the break and added two further goals after the restart while the visitors replied once. Despite CSKA controlling only 43 percent of possession against Lokomotiv's 57 percent the hosts proved more decisive in converting chances. No red cards were issued keeping the contest uninterrupted throughout the ninety minutes. CSKA as the designated stronger side delivered the expected outcome and maintained their advantage from the first half onward. The significant deviation noted in the data aligned with the final result favoring the home team. This performance underscored CSKA's clinical edge in key moments despite territorial inferiority.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: CSKA Moskva recorded a significant structural deviation as the deviation team in the 3-1 result.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's overall performance.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because home and away xG values were unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved market aligned according to the recorded pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations stayed undetermined with no differential or efficiency metrics supplied.
  • Event impact: The halftime lead created a decisive event impact that shaped the eventual 3-1 victory.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role since both teams finished with zero dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Chistyakov

Russia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Petrosyan

1st Assistant

Russia

A. Shiryaev

2nd Assistant

Russia

A. Anopa

4th Official

Russia

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 28.15
Yellow cards / match 4.07
Red cards / match 0.25
Penalties / match 0.63
CSKA Moskva D. Igdisamov
D. Igdisamov
VS
Lokomotiv Moskva M. Galaktionov
M. Galaktionov
1.07
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 W
Zenit Rank: 80 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 D
Rostov Rank: 61 D
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 57 D
Sochi Rank: 52 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 65 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 D
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 L
Zenit Rank: 81 D
Orenburg Rank: 54 W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 56 D
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 11 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home CSKA Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Lokomotiv Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.2
69.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
CSKA Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
Power Score
70.2
69.1
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
197
224

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
CSKA Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiv Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) CSKA Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

CSKA Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lokomotiv Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiv Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.21
34.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.74
27.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
CSKA Moskva -0.83 Efficiency Index
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva +0.83 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiv Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
CSKA Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
CSKA Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
CSKA Moskva
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
CSKA Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
CSKA Moskva 0.29
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
CSKA Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
CSKA Moskva 0.02
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.09
CSKA Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lokomotiv Moskva had peak pressure around 73'.
  • CSKA Moskva started the game with stronger pressure.
CSKA Moskva Pressure Lokomotiv Moskva Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lokomotiv Moskva reached the top pressure at 73' (90.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva Home
45 matches
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Away
Match Record
17
Wins
17
11
Draws
11
17
Losses
17
Goals
63
Goals Scored
53
53
Goals Conceded
63
+10
Goal Difference
-10

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T01:00:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
V. Torop
Russia
49 V. Torop
M. Gajić
Serbia
22 M. Gajić
M. Lukun
Russia
90 M. Lukun
K. Danilov
Russia
79 K. Danilov
M. Reis de Lima
Substitution
Brazil
2 M. Reis de Lima
I. Oblyakov
Substitution
Russia
10 I. Oblyakov
M. Kislyak
Russia
31 M. Kislyak
D. Krugovoi
Russia
3 D. Krugovoi
D. Barinov
Russia
6 D. Barinov
D. Kozlov
Substitution
Russia
18 D. Kozlov
M. Voronov
Substitution
97 M. Voronov
Pitch
A. Mitryushkin
Russia
1 A. Mitryushkin
Lucas Fasson
Substitution
Brazil
3 Lucas Fasson
E. Morozov
Russia
85 E. Morozov
A. Silyanov
Russia
45 A. Silyanov
M. Nenakhov
Russia
24 M. Nenakhov
S. Pinyaev
Substitution
Russia
9 S. Pinyaev
A. Karpukas
Russia
93 A. Karpukas
D. Prutsev
Substitution
Russia
25 D. Prutsev
A. Rudenko
Substitution
Russia
19 A. Rudenko
D. Vorobyev
Substitution
Russia
10 D. Vorobyev
A. Batrakov
Russia
83 A. Batrakov

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
VEB Arena
Capacity :
30457
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Artem Chistyakov
Varantso Petrosyan
Aleksey Shiryaev
Anton Anopa

Statistics

Possession
CSKA Moskva
45%
Lokomotiv Moskva
55%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 9
34 Dangerous attacks 56
43 Possession 57
3 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
9 Goal Kicks 7
16 Dribble Attempts 11
18 Throwins 19
12 Successful Headers 15
10 Successful Dribbles 3
2 Assists 1
62 Ball Safe 61
8 Goal Attempts 9
4 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

70 Attacks 80
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

17 Successful Long Passes 21
372 Passes 486
295 Successful Passes 416
79 Successful Passes Percentage 86
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
43 Long Passes 38

Defensive

11 Interceptions 12
46 Duels Won 42
2 Saves 2
13 Tackles 13

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 35
1 Accurate Crosses 12

Discipline

11 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Artem Chistyakov

Starting XI ▼

49
Vladislav Torop
Vladislav Torop Goalkeeper
2
Matheus Reis
Matheus Reis Defender
11
Tamerlan Musaev
Tamerlan Musaev
Attacker63'
22
Milan Gajić
Milan Gajić Defender
79
Kirill Danilov
Kirill Danilov Defender
90
Matvey Lukin
Matvey Lukin Defender
3
Danil Krugovoy
Danil Krugovoy Midfielder
6
Dmitri Barinov
Dmitri Barinov Midfielder
10
Ivan Oblyakov
Ivan Oblyakov Midfielder
67
Mingiyan Badmaev
Mingiyan Badmaev
Defender90+5'
18
Danila Kozlov
Danila Kozlov Midfielder
7
Matheus Alves Nascimento
Matheus Alves Nascimento
Midfielder71'
31
Matvey Kislyak
Matvey Kislyak Midfielder
97
Maksim Voronov
Maksim Voronov Attacker
52
Artem Bandikyan
Artem Bandikyan
Midfielder63'
Referee : Artem Chistyakov

Starting XI ▼

1
Anton Mitryushkin
Anton Mitryushkin Goalkeeper
3
Lucas Fasson
Lucas Fasson Defender
5
Gerzino Nyamsi
Gerzino Nyamsi
Defender39'
24
Maksim Nenakhov
Maksim Nenakhov Defender
45
Alexander Silyanov
Alexander Silyanov Defender
85
Evgeniy Morozov
Evgeniy Morozov Defender
9
Sergey Pinyaev
Sergey Pinyaev Midfielder
8
Vladislav Sarvelyi
Vladislav Sarvelyi
Midfielder61'
19
Aleksandr Rudenko
Aleksandr Rudenko Midfielder
14
Nikita Saltykov
Nikita Saltykov
Midfielder61'
25
Danil Prutsev
Danil Prutsev Midfielder
32
Lucas Vera
Lucas Vera
Midfielder61'
93
Artem Karpukas
Artem Karpukas Midfielder
10
Dmitry Vorobyev
Dmitry Vorobyev Attacker
99
Ruslan Myalkovskiy
Ruslan Myalkovskiy
Attacker86'
83
Aleksey Batrakov
Aleksey Batrakov Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mingiyan Badmaev → Ivan Oblyakov
9th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Danil Krugovoy
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+1'
86'
Event
Ruslan Myalkovskiy → Dmitry Vorobyev
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Aleksey Batrakov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Matheus Alves Nascimento → Danila Kozlov
7th Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Alexander Silyanov
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Artem Bandikyan → Maksim Voronov
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Tamerlan Musaev → Matheus Reis
6th Substitution
63'
61'
Event
Vladislav Sarvelyi → Sergey Pinyaev
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Lucas Vera → Danil Prutsev
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Nikita Saltykov → Aleksandr Rudenko
2nd Substitution
Event
Maksim Nenakhov
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
57'
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Gerzino Nyamsi → Lucas Fasson
1st Substitution
Event
Danila Kozlov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
35'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Daniil Krugovoy scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Update Update
Mingiyan Badmaev is on, and Ivan Oblyakov is off.
88
Attempt Attempt
Alexey Batrakov's left-footed shot is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Alexey Batrakov takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
86
Update Update
Ruslan Myalkovskiy comes on for Dmitry Vorobyev.
84
Attempt Attempt
Vladislav Sarveli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Tamerlan Musaev's right-footed shot is blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Matheus Alves Nascimento takes a left-footed shot but misses.
71
Update Update
Matheus Alves Nascimento comes on for Danila Kozlov.
70
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Aleksandr Silyanov with his right foot results in a goal.
68
Attempt Attempt
Vladislav Sarveli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Update Update
Artem Bandikyan comes on for Maksim Voronov.
63
Update Update
Tamerlan Musaev replaces Matheus Reis de Lima.
61
Attempt Attempt
Sergey Pinyaev takes a left-footed shot but misses.
61
Update Update
Vladislav Sarveli is on, and Sergey Pinyaev is off.
61
Update Update
Nikita Saltykov is on, and Aleksandr Rudenko is off.
61
Update Update
Lucas Gabriel Vera replaces Danil Prutsev.
59
Attempt Attempt
Gerzino Nyamsi attempted a header but missed the shot.
57
Attempt Attempt
Gerzino Nyamsi attempts a header but misses the shot.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Maksim Nenakhov makes it 2-0.
48
Attempt Attempt
Alexey Batrakov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Milan Gajic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sergey Pinyaev takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Silyanov takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Update Update
Aleksandr Silyanov's header is blocked.
43
Update Update
Aleksandr Silyanov's header is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Sergey Pinyaev takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
42
Attempt Attempt
Dmitry Vorobyev's header is saved.
39
Update Update
Gerzino Nyamsi is on, and Lucas Fasson is off.
38
Attempt Attempt
Danila Kozlov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Danila Kozlov scores with a right-footed shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Rudenko attempts a header but misses the shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Rudenko attempts a header but misses the shot.
21
Attempt Attempt
Danil Prutsev takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Sergey Pinyaev takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Dmitry Vorobyev takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Daniil Krugovoy takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Daniil Krugovoy takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

CSKA Moskva's 3-1 success over Lokomotiv Moskva demonstrated clear control after an early advantage that carried through both halves. The home side's ability to score three times while limiting the visitors to a single reply highlighted efficient finishing despite lower possession figures. With no disciplinary interruptions the match remained open and competitive until the final whistle. This result reinforces CSKA's status as the stronger side in the fixture and shows their capacity to manage games from a position of strength. Lokomotiv will need to address their conversion rate in future outings to challenge more effectively. The clean sheet in terms of cards allowed focus to stay on tactical execution and attacking patterns throughout the encounter.

CSKA Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.