CSKA Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VEB Arena Sun, 17 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva
Versus
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 3:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the Russian Premier League's 2025/2026 regular season, CSKA Moskva welcomes rivals Lokomotiv Moskva to VEB Arena for a pivotal Moscow derby. Lokomotiv arrives as the marginally stronger outfit, boasting a power score of 70.35 compared to CSKA's 69.51, translating to a slim 0.8-point edge. League standings reflect this, with Lokomotiv entrenched in 3rd place and CSKA trailing in 5th. Form metrics underscore the visitors' momentum, scoring 22.83 against CSKA's modest 10.83. Detailed recent outings remain unavailable, while advanced analytics like efficiency and set pieces lack sufficient data due to absent xG figures and reliance on low-confidence proxies. This matchup hinges on Lokomotiv's superior recent performances and structural slight superiority, though CSKA's home advantage at VEB Arena could spark a competitive battle. Expect a tight contest where execution in open play will prove decisive.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Lokomotiv Moskva holds a 0.8-point power advantage over CSKA Moskva with scores of 70.35 to 69.51.
  • Form: Lokomotiv Moskva demonstrates stronger form at 22.83 compared to CSKA Moskva's 10.83.
  • Squad: Lokomotiv Moskva sits 3rd in the league, two positions above CSKA Moskva in 5th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not provided for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats rely on low-confidence proxies with no xG data available for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables are unavailable due to lack of underlying data.
  • Market: Projection split: CSKA Moskva 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Lokomotiv Moskva 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
CSKA Moskva D. Igdisamov
D. Igdisamov
VS
Lokomotiv Moskva M. Galaktionov
M. Galaktionov
1.07
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 W
Zenit Rank: 80 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 D
Rostov Rank: 60 D
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 57 D
Sochi Rank: 53 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 65 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 D
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 L
Zenit Rank: 80 D
Orenburg Rank: 54 W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 D
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 11 - 17
17
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home CSKA Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Lokomotiv Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.51
70.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
CSKA Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
Power Score
69.51
70.35
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
218
199

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
CSKA Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiv Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) CSKA Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva Home
45 matches
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Away
Match Record
17
Wins
17
11
Draws
11
17
Losses
17
Goals
63
Goals Scored
53
53
Goals Conceded
63
+10
Goal Difference
-10

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:08:38+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
V. Torop
49 V. Torop
M. Gajić
22 M. Gajić
J. Da Silva Marcelino
4 J. Da Silva Marcelino
K. Danilov
79 K. Danilov
M. Reis de Lima
2 M. Reis de Lima
M. Kislyak
31 M. Kislyak
D. Krugovoi
3 D. Krugovoi
I. Oblyakov
10 I. Oblyakov
D. Barinov
6 D. Barinov
A. Bandikyan
52 A. Bandikyan
T. Musaev
11 T. Musaev
Pitch
A. Mitryushkin
1 A. Mitryushkin
Lucas Fasson
3 Lucas Fasson
M. Nenakhov
24 M. Nenakhov
E. Morozov
85 E. Morozov
A. Silyanov
45 A. Silyanov
L. Vera
32 L. Vera
A. Karpukas
93 A. Karpukas
D. Prutsev
25 D. Prutsev
A. Rudenko
19 A. Rudenko
D. Vorobyev
10 D. Vorobyev
N. Saltykov
14 N. Saltykov

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
VEB Arena
Capacity :
30457
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

49
Vladislav Torop
Vladislav Torop Goalkeeper
7.04
3
Danil Krugovoy
Danil Krugovoy Midfielder
7.05
52
Artem Bandikyan
Artem Bandikyan Midfielder
6.68
11
Tamerlan Musaev
Tamerlan Musaev Centre Forward
6.86
22
Milan Gajić
Milan Gajić Right Back
6.72
31
Matvey Kislyak
Matvey Kislyak Defensive Midfield
7.2
79
Kirill Danilov
Kirill Danilov Left Back
6.85
2
Matheus Reis
Matheus Reis Left Back
6.77
4
João Victor
João Victor Right Back
6.99
10
Ivan Oblyakov
Ivan Oblyakov Central Midfield
7.42
6
Dmitri Barinov
Dmitri Barinov Central Midfield
7.14

Starting XI ▼

1
Anton Mitryushkin
Anton Mitryushkin Goalkeeper
6.9
19
Aleksandr Rudenko
Aleksandr Rudenko Attacker
6.87
14
Nikita Saltykov
Nikita Saltykov Attacker
6.54
10
Dmitry Vorobyev
Dmitry Vorobyev Centre Forward
7.12
32
Lucas Vera
Lucas Vera Central Midfield
6.64
25
Danil Prutsev
Danil Prutsev Central Midfield
6.28
93
Artem Karpukas
Artem Karpukas Central Midfield
6.93
3
Lucas Fasson
Lucas Fasson Left Back
6.88
24
Maksim Nenakhov
Maksim Nenakhov Left Back
6.6
45
Alexander Silyanov
Alexander Silyanov Right Back
6.89
85
Evgeniy Morozov
Evgeniy Morozov Right Back
6.75

CONCLUSION

Lokomotiv Moskva enters this derby with tangible edges in power rating, league position, and form, positioning them as favorites despite CSKA's home turf at VEB Arena. The 0.8-point structural advantage and superior 22.83 form score suggest the visitors can control proceedings, particularly if they leverage their higher standing effectively. CSKA, mired in 5th and lower form at 10.83, must rally domestically to counter. Absent detailed efficiency, transition, or set-piece insights, the focus shifts to overall execution and derby intensity. Lokomotiv's momentum likely tips the scales in a closely contested affair, though CSKA's resolve could yield surprises.

CSKA Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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