CSKA Moskva vs Dinamo Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VEB Arena Sun, 8 Mar - 4:30 PM
Premier League
CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva
1 Winner 4
Dinamo Moskva DMO
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 4:30 PM
Moisés - 58'
Goal
|
Goal
Ivan Sergeev - 84'
Bitello - 66'
Nicolás Marichal - 45+4', 13'
Luciano Gondou 17' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. CSKA Moskva 1–2 Dinamo Moskva. The result saw Dinamo Moskva take the points. Dinamo Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 56%–44%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Ivanov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Petrosyan

2nd Assistant

A. Obrazko

1st Assistant

I. Kaplenkov

4th Official

CSKA Moskva F. Celestini
F. Celestini
VS
Dinamo Moskva R. Gusev
R. Gusev
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akhmat Grozny Rank: L
Krasnodar Rank: L
Orenburg Rank: W
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Spartak Moskva Rank: D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: W
Akron Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: D
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 13 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home CSKA Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Dinamo Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60
45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
CSKA Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
Power Score
60
45
League Position
5
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
CSKA Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) CSKA Moskva Dinamo Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

CSKA Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.59
60.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
60.11
27.59
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
CSKA Moskva -3.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Moskva +3.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
CSKA Moskva Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
CSKA Moskva Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Dinamo Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva Home
11 matches
Dinamo Moskva DMO Away
Match Record
5
Wins
5
1
Draws
1
5
Losses
5
Goals
20
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
20
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:17:13+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 08, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadium :
VEB Arena
Capacity :
30457
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Varantso Petrosyan
Andrey Obrazko
Igor Kaplenkov
Sergey Ivanov

Statistics

Possession
CSKA Moskva
55%
DMO
45%

Top Statistics

0 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 7
49 Dangerous attacks 49
56 Possession 44
8 Corners 9
15 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

23 Dribble Attempts 10
16 Successful Headers 6
8 Goal Kicks 5
17 Throwins 12
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
1 Assists 3
7 Successful Dribbles 2

Attacking

114 Attacks 83

Possession

48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
85 Successful Passes Percentage 81
535 Passes 408
455 Successful Passes 332
42 Long Passes 49
20 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

3 Saves 2
11 Tackles 21
7 Interceptions 10

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 8
24 Total Crosses 29

Discipline

8 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Henrique Carmo → Danil Krugovoy
10th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Ivan Sergeev
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Maksim Voronov → Ivan Oblyakov
9th Substitution
75'
Event
Danila Kozlov → Kirill Glebov
8th Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Ivan Sergeev → Leon Zaydenzal
7th Substitution
73'
Event
A. Kutitskiy → K. Tyukavin
6th Substitution
66'
Event
Bitello
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Tamerlan Musaev → Milan Gajić
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Matheus Alves Nascimento → Dmitri Barinov
4th Substitution
62'
59'
Event
Y. Gladyshev → Rubens
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Timofey Marinkin → Arthur Gomes
3rd Substitution
Event
Moisés
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
58'
53'
Event
Rubens
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Leon Zaydenzal → Dmitri Skopintsev
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Nicolás Marichal
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
30'
Event
Nicolás Marichal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Luciano Gondou
Foul / 1st Redcard
17'
Event
Luciano Gondou
Card adjusted
16'
13'
Event
Nicolás Marichal
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dinamo Moskva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

CSKA Moskva vs Dinamo Moskva preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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