Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Selhurst Park Sun, 12 Apr - 1:00 PM
Premier League
Crystal Palace CRY
2 Winner 1
Newcastle United NEW
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Jean-Philippe Mateta - 90+4' (P), 80'
Goal
|
Goal
William Osula - 43'

CONTEXT

The match between Crystal Palace and Newcastle United is finished, with Crystal Palace winning 2-1 after trailing 0-1 at half-time. The home side mounted an effective second-half response to secure the victory despite not controlling the majority of possession. Pre-match expectations had leaned toward Newcastle United, who held a higher projected share of success than Crystal Palace. The result represented a significant deviation in favor of Crystal Palace, who performed as the stronger team and claimed a win that did not align with the pre-match projection. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations across the contest. Newcastle United enjoyed more of the ball with 59 percent possession to Crystal Palace’s 41 percent. No red cards were shown to either side, so the outcome was not shaped by any disciplinary events.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Crystal Palace showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Madley

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Long

1st Assistant

C. Taylor

2nd Assistant

R. Ricardo

4th Official

Crystal Palace O. Glasner
O. Glasner
VS
Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester City Rank: D
Leeds United Rank: D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: L
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: W
Burnley Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sunderland Rank: L
Chelsea Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: W
Everton Rank: L
Manchester City Rank: L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 10 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Crystal Palace
32.2%
Draw
28.74%
Away Newcastle United
39.06%

Movement

Changes since opening
Crystal Palace
-63.41%
Draw
+24.54%
Newcastle United
+38.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.7
25.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Power Score
30.7
25.9
League Position
13
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Crystal Palace — Opponent-weighted form score
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Crystal Palace Newcastle United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Crystal Palace

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Newcastle United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Crystal Palace ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Newcastle United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.85
16.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.10
30.85
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Crystal Palace +1.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Newcastle United -1.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Crystal Palace ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Newcastle United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Crystal Palace Newcastle United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Crystal Palace Newcastle United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Crystal Palace
vs
Newcastle United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Crystal Palace Newcastle United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Crystal Palace 0.33
Newcastle United 0.14
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Crystal Palace Newcastle United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Crystal Palace 0.02
Newcastle United 0.06
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CRY had peak pressure around 41'.
  • CRY started the game with stronger pressure.
CRY Pressure NEW Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CRY reached the top pressure at 41' (99.42).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Crystal Palace CRY Home
29 matches
Newcastle United NEW Away
Match Record
5
Wins
14
10
Draws
10
14
Losses
5
Goals
20
Goals Scored
39
39
Goals Conceded
20
-19
Goal Difference
+19

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:04:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-5-1
Pitch
D. Henderson
England
1 D. Henderson
C. Richards
United States
26 C. Richards
M. Lacroix
France
5 M. Lacroix
J. Canvot
France
23 J. Canvot
D. Muñoz Mejía
Colombia
2 D. Muñoz Mejía
J. Lerma Solís
Colombia
8 J. Lerma Solís
W. Hughes
Substitution
England
19 W. Hughes
T. Mitchell
Substitution
England
3 T. Mitchell
B. Johnson
Substitution
Wales
11 B. Johnson
J. Strand Larsen
Substitution
Norway
22 J. Strand Larsen
Y. Jesús Pino Santos
Substitution
Spain
10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
Pitch
A. Ramsdale
England
32 A. Ramsdale
L. Hall
England
3 L. Hall
S. Botman
Netherlands
4 S. Botman
M. Thiaw
Germany
12 M. Thiaw
V. Livramento
England
21 V. Livramento
A. Gordon
Substitution
England
10 A. Gordon
J. Apolinário de Lira
Substitution
Brazil
7 J. Apolinário de Lira
S. Tonali
Substitution
Italy
8 S. Tonali
L. Miley
England
67 L. Miley
J. Murphy
Substitution
England
23 J. Murphy
W. Osula
Substitution
Denmark
18 W. Osula

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 12, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Selhurst Park
Capacity :
25456
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Simon Long
Craig Taylor
Ruebyn Ricardo
Andrew Madley

Statistics

Possession
CRY
43%
NEW
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 1
33 Dangerous attacks 50
41 Possession 59
2 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 18
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
1 Successful Dribbles 7
2 Goal Kicks 8
16 Successful Headers 19
20 Throwins 28
4 Dribble Attempts 15
1 Assists 1
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
76 Ball Safe 88
2 Injuries 1
8 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

80 Attacks 130
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

297 Successful Passes 425
373 Passes 530
6 Key Passes 4
80 Successful Passes Percentage 80
23 Successful Long Passes 19
60 Long Passes 55
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

13 Interceptions 11
19 Tackles 6
2 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 1
14 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

17 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Andrew Madley

Starting XI ▼

1
Dean Henderson
Dean Henderson Goalkeeper
5
Maxence Lacroix
Maxence Lacroix Defender
23
Jaydee Canvot
Jaydee Canvot Defender
26
Chris Richards
Chris Richards Defender
2
Daniel Muñoz
Daniel Muñoz Midfielder
3
Tyrick Mitchell
Tyrick Mitchell Midfielder
24
Borna Sosa
Borna Sosa
Defender90+6'
8
Jefferson Lerma
Jefferson Lerma Midfielder
19
Will Hughes
Will Hughes Midfielder
20
Adam Wharton
Adam Wharton
Midfielder64'
10
Yéremy Pino
Yéremy Pino Attacker
18
Daichi Kamada
Daichi Kamada
Midfielder76'
11
Brennan Johnson
Brennan Johnson Attacker
7
Ismaïla Sarr
Ismaïla Sarr
Attacker64'
22
Jørgen Strand Larsen
Jørgen Strand Larsen Attacker
14
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Attacker65'
2
Referee : Andrew Madley

Starting XI ▼

32
Aaron Ramsdale
Aaron Ramsdale Goalkeeper
3
Lewis Hall
Lewis Hall Defender
4
Sven Botman
Sven Botman Defender
12
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw Defender
21
Tino Livramento
Tino Livramento Defender
7
Joelinton
Joelinton Midfielder
41
Jacob Ramsey
Jacob Ramsey
Midfielder84'
8
Sandro Tonali
Sandro Tonali Midfielder
20
Anthony Elanga
Anthony Elanga
Attacker90+5'
10
Anthony Gordon
Anthony Gordon Midfielder
11
Harvey Barnes
Harvey Barnes
Midfielder71'
23
Jacob Murphy
Jacob Murphy Midfielder
9
Yoane Wissa
Yoane Wissa
Attacker90+5'
67
Lewis Miley
Lewis Miley Midfielder
18
William Osula
William Osula Attacker
27
Nick Woltemade
Nick Woltemade
Attacker84'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Borna Sosa → Tyrick Mitchell
10th Substitution
90+6'
90+5'
Event
Anthony Elanga → Sandro Tonali
8th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Yoane Wissa → Jacob Murphy
9th Substitution
Event
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+4'
90+3'
Event
Aaron Ramsdale
3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Jacob Ramsey → Joelinton
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Nick Woltemade → William Osula
7th Substitution
Event
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Header / 2nd Goal
80'
Event
Daichi Kamada → Yéremy Pino
5th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Joelinton
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
Event
Harvey Barnes → Anthony Gordon
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Malick Thiaw
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Jean-Philippe Mateta → Jørgen Strand Larsen
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Adam Wharton → Will Hughes
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Ismaïla Sarr → Brennan Johnson
1st Substitution
64'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
William Osula
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Yoane Wissa replaces Jacob Murphy.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Sven Botman of Newcastle United concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aaron Ramsdale of Newcastle United receives a yellow card.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Anthony Elanga replaces Sandro Tonali.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jean-Philippe Mateta scores for Crystal Palace with a right-footed penalty shot. The match score is now Crystal Palace 2, Newcastle United 1.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Crystal Palace: Borna Sosa replaces Tyrick Mitchell.
90
Update Update
Crystal Palace are awarded a penalty after Jefferson Lerma is fouled in the penalty area.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Crystal Palace 2, Newcastle United 1.
90
Update Update
Tino Livramento of Newcastle United won a free kick in defense.
90
Corner Corner
Newcastle United win a corner after Maxence Lacroix concedes it.
89
Update Update
Foul committed by Nick Woltemade of Newcastle United.
89
Update Update
Jefferson Lerma of Crystal Palace won a free kick in defense.
86
Update Update
Sandro Tonali of Newcastle United won a free kick in defense.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Sandro Tonali of Newcastle United.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Jefferson Lerma against Crystal Palace.
86
Update Update
Jean-Philippe Mateta from Crystal Palace won a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Nick Woltemade replaces William Osula.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Jacob Ramsey replaces Joelinton.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jean-Philippe Mateta scores for Crystal Palace with a header from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Tyrick Mitchell. The match is now 1-1.
79
Corner Corner
Newcastle United wins a corner after Adam Wharton concedes.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Crystal Palace: Daichi Kamada replaces Yéremy Pino.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by Daniel Muñoz of Crystal Palace.
75
Update Update
Daniel Muñoz of Crystal Palace commits a foul.
74
Update Update
Joelinton commits a foul for Newcastle United.
74
Update Update
Jean-Philippe Mateta from Crystal Palace won a free kick in defense.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joelinton of Newcastle United receives a yellow card for a foul.
73
Attempt Attempt
Sven Botman's shot from outside the box for Newcastle United is blocked.
72
Update Update
William Osula of Newcastle United won a free kick in the attacking area.
72
Update Update
William Osula of Newcastle United won a free kick on the left wing.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Harvey Barnes replaces Anthony Gordon.
70
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Lewis Hall of Newcastle United.
70
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Daniel Muñoz of Crystal Palace.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Daniel Muñoz of Crystal Palace.
69
Update Update
Jefferson Lerma of Crystal Palace hits the bar with a header from close range, assisted by Yéremy Pino's cross.
69
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Muñoz's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
69
Update Update
Lewis Hall of Newcastle United won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Foul by Malick Thiaw of Newcastle United.
68
Update Update
Jean-Philippe Mateta from Crystal Palace won a free kick in the attacking area.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Malick Thiaw from Newcastle United receives a yellow card for a foul.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyrick Mitchell of Crystal Palace.
67
Update Update
Anthony Gordon of Newcastle United won a free kick in defense.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Crystal Palace: Jean-Philippe Mateta replaces Jørgen Strand Larsen.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Crystal Palace: Ismaïla Sarr replaces Brennan Johnson.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Crystal Palace: Adam Wharton replaces Will Hughes.
62
Attempt Attempt
Yéremy Pino from Crystal Palace missed a chance with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
60
Update Update
Tino Livramento of Newcastle United won a free kick in the attacking area.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Yéremy Pino of Crystal Palace.
59
Corner Corner
Crystal Palace is awarded a corner after Sandro Tonali concedes it.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by William Osula of Newcastle United.
56
Update Update
Yéremy Pino is flagged for offside for Crystal Palace.
56
Update Update
Maxence Lacroix from Crystal Palace won a free kick in the attacking area.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Malick Thiaw against Newcastle United.
53
Update Update
Daniel Muñoz of Crystal Palace won a free kick in defense.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyrick Mitchell of Crystal Palace.
52
Update Update
Sandro Tonali from Newcastle United won a free kick in the attacking area.
50
Update Update
Tyrick Mitchell of Crystal Palace was awarded a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
New attacking attempt. William Osula of Newcastle United shoots with his left foot from the center of the box, but Dean Henderson of Crystal Palace saves it in the center of the goal.
50
Corner Corner
Newcastle United win a corner after Chris Richards concedes.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Jacob Murphy of Newcastle United.
47
Update Update
Maxence Lacroix fouled a Crystal Palace player.
47
Attempt Attempt
Jørgen Strand Larsen's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
47
Update Update
William Osula of Newcastle United won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Daniel Muñoz of Crystal Palace.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Murphy's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Sandro Tonali provided the assist.
45
Update Update
William Osula from Newcastle United won a free kick on the right wing.
45
Corner Corner
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from a difficult position and long distance on the right, but Dean Henderson from Crystal Palace saves it in the right corner.
45
Update Update
William Osula of Newcastle United won a free kick on the right wing.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Crystal Palace 0, Newcastle United 1.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Crystal Palace 0, Newcastle United 1.
45
Update Update
Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United won a free kick on the left wing.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Newcastle United takes the lead 1-0 as William Osula scores with a left-footed shot from close range into the left corner.
42
Update Update
William Osula of Newcastle United won a free kick in defense.
42
Update Update
Maxence Lacroix from Crystal Palace committed a foul.
39
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Lewis Hall of Newcastle United.
39
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Daniel Muñoz of Crystal Palace has a shot from close range, but it's saved by Newcastle United's goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale, who is positioned in the center of the goal.
37
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Jaydee Canvot of Crystal Palace heads the ball from close range, but it's just off target. The assist came from Yéremy Pino, who delivered a cross after a corner.
36
Corner Corner
Crystal Palace wins a corner after Malick Thiaw concedes.
34
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Daniel Muñoz of Crystal Palace takes a right-footed shot from a difficult position on the right, but it's saved in the top left corner by Aaron Ramsdale of Newcastle United.
34
Update Update
Tyrick Mitchell from Crystal Palace commits a handball.
34
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Yéremy Pino of Crystal Palace takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Aaron Ramsdale of Newcastle United. The assist comes from Brennan Johnson.
33
Update Update
Sandro Tonali from Newcastle United won a free kick in defense.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Jørgen Strand Larsen of Crystal Palace.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyrick Mitchell of Crystal Palace.
29
Update Update
Tino Livramento of Newcastle United won a free kick in defense.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Sven Botman of Newcastle United.
27
Update Update
Brennan Johnson of Crystal Palace won a free kick in an attacking position.
26
Update Update
Will Hughes of Crystal Palace won a free kick in defense.
26
Update Update
Will Hughes from Crystal Palace won a free kick in defense.
23
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Brennan Johnson from Crystal Palace.
22
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Gordon's shot for Newcastle United from the center of the box is blocked. Jacob Murphy provided the assist.
16
Update Update
Handball by William Osula of Newcastle United.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Tyrick Mitchell of Crystal Palace.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis Miley of Newcastle United.
14
Update Update
Yéremy Pino from Crystal Palace won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Jacob Murphy of Newcastle United won a free kick in defense.
13
Corner Corner
Newcastle United win a corner after Maxence Lacroix concedes.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Daniel Muñoz of Crystal Palace.
11
Update Update
Lewis Hall of Newcastle United won a free kick in defense.
10
Attempt Attempt
Sven Botman of Newcastle United missed a header from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. The assist came from Lewis Hall, who provided the cross.
9
Update Update
Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United won a free kick on the left wing.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Daniel Muñoz of Crystal Palace.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Crystal Palace exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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